American Airlines - Accumulation?
Here's a quick timeline of what's happened with AAL these past few months:
21 Feb - AAL begins its almost 68% decline due to the COVID pandemic from $28.51 to $9.11
4 June - AAL sees a significant price increase possibly due to their decision to increase domestic flying for the summer, and the reopening of Admirals Clubs and increased flexibility. Whatever it was, it sent the stock up by 41%
23 June - AAL stock falls below the 3 month support which then becomes a strong level of resistance at $14
Jul - 9 Nov - Roughly 7 attempts were made to break through the June 3rd resistance
23 Nov - AAL finally breaks through the $14 resistance line possibly helped by some AAL initiatives (AA and Alaska Air Elite members reciprocity, International change fee elimination, Boeing MAX 737 return to service, Black Friday deals. Pick one)
This is out of sequence, but on 28 Oct a new ascending channel started to form within a larger channel that began on 14 May 2020 (visible in 4HR Interval Chart)
- The closing price of AAL from today sits exactly where the bottom of the upper channel begins.
- A break through the Feb resistance at $20.42 will bring the stock back to its post-COVID ATH
Being that they fall under T&L, there are a lot of external factors that can affect the price direction of this stock. A few non-financial related reasons worth mentioning are:
- Current infection rates of COVID-19 within the US and globally
- Availability and Efficacy of COVID vaccine
- Government-Imposed restrictions
- Customers level of comfort resuming travel
- Quarantine regulations
But with most indicators and oscillators trending up, I'm hopeful that they recover sooner rather than later.
This is obviously just my 2 cents. Let me reiterate that this is by no way to be construed as financial advice. I do this to help me look back and see any errors in judgement I've made. If you have constructive advice to give, feel free to let me know.
21 Feb - AAL begins its almost 68% decline due to the COVID pandemic from $28.51 to $9.11
4 June - AAL sees a significant price increase possibly due to their decision to increase domestic flying for the summer, and the reopening of Admirals Clubs and increased flexibility. Whatever it was, it sent the stock up by 41%
23 June - AAL stock falls below the 3 month support which then becomes a strong level of resistance at $14
Jul - 9 Nov - Roughly 7 attempts were made to break through the June 3rd resistance
23 Nov - AAL finally breaks through the $14 resistance line possibly helped by some AAL initiatives (AA and Alaska Air Elite members reciprocity, International change fee elimination, Boeing MAX 737 return to service, Black Friday deals. Pick one)
This is out of sequence, but on 28 Oct a new ascending channel started to form within a larger channel that began on 14 May 2020 (visible in 4HR Interval Chart)
- The closing price of AAL from today sits exactly where the bottom of the upper channel begins.
- A break through the Feb resistance at $20.42 will bring the stock back to its post-COVID ATH
Being that they fall under T&L, there are a lot of external factors that can affect the price direction of this stock. A few non-financial related reasons worth mentioning are:
- Current infection rates of COVID-19 within the US and globally
- Availability and Efficacy of COVID vaccine
- Government-Imposed restrictions
- Customers level of comfort resuming travel
- Quarantine regulations
But with most indicators and oscillators trending up, I'm hopeful that they recover sooner rather than later.
This is obviously just my 2 cents. Let me reiterate that this is by no way to be construed as financial advice. I do this to help me look back and see any errors in judgement I've made. If you have constructive advice to give, feel free to let me know.
Comment:
This gets to be a risky trade with the US having added over 1 million new positive cases in just the last 6 days