Over last 3 months Apple stock daily chart printed very similar set up as Tesla stock did in Jan-Feb of this year.
If Apple will follow thru the same steps it means top was already printed in early September, and we should see decline in the upcoming months.
This is how Tesla developed (best seen in hourly chart)
Trend up:
1. Stock price ran up fast to $885
Formed Top:
2. Sharp pull back from the top to $804
3. Consolidation at the top (not exactly, but kind of triangle - ish formation.)
4. Failed breakout to new ATH
5. Pullback to same levels as #2 step above ($804)
6. Further pullback which printed first Lower Low ($780)
7. Rebound to original level in #1 ($880)
Trend Down:
8. First move down to $800
9. Second move down to $620
10. Third move down to $540
If I were to extrapolate Tesla’s set up to Apple, yesterday’s $138 lower low would be step #6. In such case we can expect:
7. move up to about $150-$151 range in next few weeks / a month.
8. Move down to around $140 by mid November
9. Second move down to $115-$120 by late December
10. Third move down to about $105-$110 by early February
Ultimately that’s 33% decline from the top. This implies 27% decline in SPX by February using historical 1.2 Beta for Apple.
It will be interesting to watch how this develops. I am not sure if specific event will trigger sell off. It could be FED’s tightening of some sort, or something completely different. Either way these projections are just based simple on TA, and possibly may not materialize at all.
If Apple will follow thru the same steps it means top was already printed in early September, and we should see decline in the upcoming months.
This is how Tesla developed (best seen in hourly chart)
Trend up:
1. Stock price ran up fast to $885
Formed Top:
2. Sharp pull back from the top to $804
3. Consolidation at the top (not exactly, but kind of triangle - ish formation.)
4. Failed breakout to new ATH
5. Pullback to same levels as #2 step above ($804)
6. Further pullback which printed first Lower Low ($780)
7. Rebound to original level in #1 ($880)
Trend Down:
8. First move down to $800
9. Second move down to $620
10. Third move down to $540
If I were to extrapolate Tesla’s set up to Apple, yesterday’s $138 lower low would be step #6. In such case we can expect:
7. move up to about $150-$151 range in next few weeks / a month.
8. Move down to around $140 by mid November
9. Second move down to $115-$120 by late December
10. Third move down to about $105-$110 by early February
Ultimately that’s 33% decline from the top. This implies 27% decline in SPX by February using historical 1.2 Beta for Apple.
It will be interesting to watch how this develops. I am not sure if specific event will trigger sell off. It could be FED’s tightening of some sort, or something completely different. Either way these projections are just based simple on TA, and possibly may not materialize at all.
