WHY IT WILL CRASH SOON:
IMO APPL looks over extended at the moment and will have a large corrective retracement to conclude this cycle. As you can see, whenever price action is over extended from the gaussian channel and starts creating a bearish divergence (higher price, lower RSI - Blue/white lines), price action has had major retracements of 35-45% in the past decade. Since 2003, APPL's bull/bear cycles have gotten shorter from 2000 days to averaging at about 1000 days (give or take 100 days). If APPL's market cycle were to be 1100 days, the cycle would end in late December this year. This means that the price of APPL doesn't have much time to keep pumping and a major correction could be coming soon. The final point id like to address is the fact that this market cycle APPL has hit the 2.618 Fibonacci extension level, pumping past it by 17%. The past 3 cycles have hit the 2.272, 1.414 and 2.272 level, making this cycle even more over extended than previous ones. Therefore Due to the time constraint for the cycle, the bearish divergence and the over extension above the 2.618 Fibonacci level, I believe a major retracement is imminent.
WHEN TO BUY BACK IN:
If you're looking to buy APPL or simply sell now and buy back in after the crash, then the best time to buy APPL would be when price action falls through the bottom of the gaussian channel and back tests the 200 day EMA as support (Yellow boxes). My price target would be $87 which is at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. I believe this will be the bottom, with a high chance of a few closes below (on the weekly) because by the end of the year/cycle the 200 day EMA will line up with the 0.382 at this level. Based on my theory that price action will fall out of the gaussian channel while holding the 200 day EMA as support, I don't believe that the 0.236 or the 0.5 are likely targets to be met. If price action were to bottom out at the 0.236 level it would remain in the gaussian channel and if the price was to hit the 0.5 level it would fall way below the 200 day EMA.
*NOTE*
A low leveraged short (1-1.5x) could be very profitable with a short opportunity of about 40%, don't get liquidated with high leveraged shorts.
CHART ELEMENTS:
White boxes- COMPLETE BULL/BEAR CYCLE
Yellow boxes- PERFECT BUYING OPPERTUNITY
Blue lines- RSI/PRICE COMPARISON LINES (Date)
White lines- RSI/PRICE COMPARISON LINES (Price/Rsi)
Red/Green channel- Gaussian channel
IMO APPL looks over extended at the moment and will have a large corrective retracement to conclude this cycle. As you can see, whenever price action is over extended from the gaussian channel and starts creating a bearish divergence (higher price, lower RSI - Blue/white lines), price action has had major retracements of 35-45% in the past decade. Since 2003, APPL's bull/bear cycles have gotten shorter from 2000 days to averaging at about 1000 days (give or take 100 days). If APPL's market cycle were to be 1100 days, the cycle would end in late December this year. This means that the price of APPL doesn't have much time to keep pumping and a major correction could be coming soon. The final point id like to address is the fact that this market cycle APPL has hit the 2.618 Fibonacci extension level, pumping past it by 17%. The past 3 cycles have hit the 2.272, 1.414 and 2.272 level, making this cycle even more over extended than previous ones. Therefore Due to the time constraint for the cycle, the bearish divergence and the over extension above the 2.618 Fibonacci level, I believe a major retracement is imminent.
WHEN TO BUY BACK IN:
If you're looking to buy APPL or simply sell now and buy back in after the crash, then the best time to buy APPL would be when price action falls through the bottom of the gaussian channel and back tests the 200 day EMA as support (Yellow boxes). My price target would be $87 which is at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. I believe this will be the bottom, with a high chance of a few closes below (on the weekly) because by the end of the year/cycle the 200 day EMA will line up with the 0.382 at this level. Based on my theory that price action will fall out of the gaussian channel while holding the 200 day EMA as support, I don't believe that the 0.236 or the 0.5 are likely targets to be met. If price action were to bottom out at the 0.236 level it would remain in the gaussian channel and if the price was to hit the 0.5 level it would fall way below the 200 day EMA.
*NOTE*
A low leveraged short (1-1.5x) could be very profitable with a short opportunity of about 40%, don't get liquidated with high leveraged shorts.
CHART ELEMENTS:
White boxes- COMPLETE BULL/BEAR CYCLE
Yellow boxes- PERFECT BUYING OPPERTUNITY
Blue lines- RSI/PRICE COMPARISON LINES (Date)
White lines- RSI/PRICE COMPARISON LINES (Price/Rsi)
Red/Green channel- Gaussian channel