APPLE Panic ?

BATS:AAPL   Apple Inc

everyone who missed one of the greatest stock rallies in a decade called "sell, too high" all the way up... Contrarian will be always contrarian, no worries.

Fundamentally one of the finest companies Silicon Valley has ever produced, but competition is charging and unfortunately the late visionary Steve Jobs is truly missed. Can Tim Cook produce something extra ordinary as Steve did with iPod , iTunes, iPad, iPhone. The size doesn't matter anymore, they need to get something new, something cool. However, they still produce the second largest profits after only Exxon with 1/4 of those revenues. Current P/E single digit 9.6 and 1yr forward P/E 8.4 and a PEG ratio of 0.5 (!) for such a company is not expensive.

From the technical point of view I prefer to change on log scale given the fact where Apple stocks are coming from (near nothing in retroperspective). I am not good in Elliot Wave counting, so in my humble opinion it seems like since 1998 the rally has been unfolding in 3 waves. Bears would certainly call it in 5 waves. But in my view we are in the 4th (corrective) wave. And even if we had finished the 5th wave at the top of 700$ mark I can't see how Apple would be trashed into a substantial bear move. It has already retraced a mind staggering 40%, but beforehand it has rallied even more staggering 800% since 2009. On the log scale the uptrendline looks obviously quite different from the normal scale. We have broken this now, but it couls also be just an overshoot. I certainly do not short Apple here, but for choice I would be small long. What do bears expect the stock will go ? Back to 100 $ ? 200$ ? For that the revenues and profits had to crater dramatically and I don't see that.

If you look at Apple from a normal scale it looks like Nasdaq 2000, but many Nasdaq dot. coms where on total hype and trading at 200-300 P/E. I believe Apple has to be looked on a log scale and is RETRACING not a bubble product.

Soon investors will hunt the offers , maybe it is time for a stock split, to make it look cheaper ? Maybe it is the iWatch, maybe iTV, maybe something else nobody is expecting. This company is not expensive, so I buy into panic selling between here and down to 400$. And this is not a short term trading position, but a medium term holding.

happy Investing,

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