EvolvedFinance

AAPL earnings, to stay or to leave temporarily ?

NASDAQ:AAPL   Apple Inc
AAPL has been a great growth and value play for the last decade. This is a company which draws its roots from its hardware business but has slowly transitioned to offer a number of essential services direct-to-consumer alongside its novel products. Services launched include apple music, apple tv+, apple arcade, apple news and others. The goal is simple, to create a vast apple ecosystem whereby users can access all their essential entertainment and wellness content from a single family of devices.

New strategies the business is pursuing is the launching of the new iphone SE, bringing back a fan favourite with some great power upgrades worthy of new customer engagement. However, I take it that this launch was also a way for the company to retain some of it's lost revenue due to the vast economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. Most of Apple's products are geared towards a luxury segment of the smartphone and computer hardware market targeting middle-class consumer and up, many of which are hurting badly as a result of severe unemployment. Unlike heavyweight tech peers Facebook and Alphabet, Apple taps into a higher tier customer base with most of their services coming at a cost, therefore we believe apple is at a higher risk of churn. We believe these factors will be the source of some trading volatility to which we will always be buyers because of the monetary backstop from the US government.

On the technical side,

AAPL is trending in a very bullish pattern since the coronavirus bear market lows, a nice higher bottom formed in the rsi at 35 when the stock officially bottomed out on March 23 at 222$.

9 EMA has provided a great guide for opening positions with two buying opportunities since the bear market rally beginning March 23, highlighted in green.

Many tech heavyweights including GOOGL and TSLA have been blasting through the fibonacci 78% retracement so i would expect the market to give AAPL the same treatment despite it's business suffering heavily in Q1.

Target for week end of about 300$

The market no longer trades on fundamental information but rather momentum from central bank actions and since AAPL is a member of the best capitalized businesses in America it receives very special treatment by the capital(central bank) markets. It appears the race to ATH in the equity market is unavoidable given the extensive monetary support.



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