MoneyPatterns
Short

ACB – High Probability Bearish Entry

NYSE:ACB   AURORA CANNABIS INC
Trade Entry
Before Earnings - Feb. 7 Expiry. Call Credit Spread. 1/3 Strikes. Credit of $0.75. Risk $125. Reward $75
After Earnings - Feb. 14 Expiry. Call Credit Spread. 1/3 Strikes. Credit of $0.87. Risk $125. Reward $87
Either strategy POP – 85.5%

While the Risk/Reward is not 1:1 or better (as preferred), sometimes these higher probability trades means giving more risk for higher probability of success.
I will place an order for this trade Monday. I will update if trade is entered (filled).

Chart Details
Recently filled gap, but Bearish trend is not finished.
My opinion – Downtrend in control means lower gaps filled unless white trendline broken. Stop at $2.
Gap to fill at $0.34 may not get filled, but price should head towards $0.90 gap fill.
Under $1 for long enough and de-listing may cause FOMO causing price to head back up towards $3.50 gap.
Bearish entry until downtrend is broken or gaps are filled.

About Me
Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing.
I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts.
Website will be ready for launch mid-January 2020.
Disclosure - I am long BTCUSD , GBTC . Short term GDX Bullish , SPXS Bullish , MCD Bullish

Comments

Yeap..... sure sell it all soon it will rich 0.01
Same was not far with NIO wen price hit $1.5 I bought it and all experts was scream sell sell soon it will bankrupt they run out of cash etc.etc.
Good luck with shorting it.....
Reply
@FXROB, Thank you for your comment. Unfortunately, you read the title WITHOUT reading the idea.
I am NOT shorting ACB. The idea is a SHORT IDEA.
The trade mentioned is a DEFINED RISK trade. I also bought NIO at IPO and 2x'd. NIO went from $12 to $1, so 90% loss is a good entry point LOL
I am not persuaded by others to buy when they say sell. I use technical and fundamental analysis to make MY OWN opinion.
Not based on emotion or others.

If you are holding stock on ACB, you have an UNDEFINED risk trade (although it's defined in the way ACB can go to zero).
Options credit spreads are defined risk trades based on time.

If you are holding stock, and want to offset your losses WHILE maintaining your bullish position.....then the credit spread above would HEDGE against your losses.
You make money going down. You keep stock in case it goes up.

Or....you can just hold stock...hoping it goes up with your "theory"....while you watch your account bleed. Just my opinion.
+3 Reply
FXROB MoneyPatterns
@MoneyPatterns,
Don't get me wrong but to post short bearish entry idea after it allready happened will not help other traders. I am using my own technic witch including Elliot Wave theory and it's telling me to buy here. I started to buying ACB last week and I bought it even today morning because I believe it's huge opportunity. That all. Wish you all the best .Thanks for response.
Reply
@FXROB, I don't see how posting the current idea now is "after it already happened".
That would be like telling people AAPL at $250 is over because its already bullish.....when it hits ATH's every other day pushing $300.
I don't disagree with your "belief". I just think it qualifies some other price point, moving average, earnings, cash flow, or other information than "big opportunity".
Elliott waves don't always reach a wave count either. Best to use multiple things and cross reference IMO.
Thank you as well. :)
Reply
@FXROB agreed. We are either toward to end of the Y of the WXY correction or it has completed today. Time to fly sky high!
Reply
MoneyPatterns justinl619
@justinl619, If we break $2 on the white trend line, I am in full agreement with you.
I would personally prefer a break of the 10WeekMA at $2.40 to enter long, but that seems far off.
If ACB gets past the $2.40 10WeekMA, then you should get your $3.40 gap fill going up. This is what I wait for.
I can enter here....and wait....OR set an alert for the 10Week to break and know I have 29% upside to the gap fill. :)

I'm not marrying the girl. I'm just parking her car.
Reply
@MoneyPatterns either way, we are on wave 4 of the 5 wave Super Cycle uptrend. U will make money as long as ur average is below $12 USD.
Reply
MoneyPatterns justinl619
@justinl619, I know you probably have enough indicators...but if you look at Heikin Ashi Buy Sell (free indicator) on the Weekly view, it is fairly accurate.
Just my two cents at an attempt to help you increase your own profit method, or reduce losses.
When Heikin Ashi gives us a Buy indicator on the Weekly....we will be in the same boat going up :)
Reply
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