Bitcoin : Complex Correction Wave Structure
Hello all, I will make this update quick and details related the yesterday's drop on bitcoin which has caused the price to touch the .236 fibonacci retracement level as a support once again.
First, the key level for current structure will be the blue support trend line that is still remain unbroken. In the mean time, I'll expect a potential retest toward this support trend line. Which will give us to further confirmation toward the next possible movement in the future. Breaks below this support trend line will be a confirmation of bearishness in the mid term. But, having a bounce at this support trend line will be the confirmation of continuing upside moves to test $12400 again and potential further consolidation on long term degree.
Second thing is about the combination between Elliot wave rules and the phases of market psychology. Based on the EW principle, there will be more complex structure during the beginning of the wave 1 and wave 2 that's why we often see a lot of failure occur on this 2 wave structure. =It's because during the accumulation pattern (wave 1 and wave 2) most of the stakeholder will have less confidence and a lot of doubt toward the market that's why the volume will be very small and a lot of manipulative moves will occur. In this case, if we assume the previous up trend was the wave 1, then this current bearish structure looks like the wave 2 in the same degree. If I assume the wave 2 as the complex waves, there will be 2 failure waves structure that may occur in the future. The first one will be the WXY correction pattern which will ends up on the .382 fibonacci retracement at around $9147 region. Or there will be the WXYXZ which is more complicated than the first structure which will leads the price to lower zone at the golden pocket between $7000 - $6800 region.
Actually, taking any position is not wise right now. We have to wait for further confirmation whether this will be the 1st, 2nd or the 3rd scenarios will occur.
First, the key level for current structure will be the blue support trend line that is still remain unbroken. In the mean time, I'll expect a potential retest toward this support trend line. Which will give us to further confirmation toward the next possible movement in the future. Breaks below this support trend line will be a confirmation of bearishness in the mid term. But, having a bounce at this support trend line will be the confirmation of continuing upside moves to test $12400 again and potential further consolidation on long term degree.
Second thing is about the combination between Elliot wave rules and the phases of market psychology. Based on the EW principle, there will be more complex structure during the beginning of the wave 1 and wave 2 that's why we often see a lot of failure occur on this 2 wave structure. =It's because during the accumulation pattern (wave 1 and wave 2) most of the stakeholder will have less confidence and a lot of doubt toward the market that's why the volume will be very small and a lot of manipulative moves will occur. In this case, if we assume the previous up trend was the wave 1, then this current bearish structure looks like the wave 2 in the same degree. If I assume the wave 2 as the complex waves, there will be 2 failure waves structure that may occur in the future. The first one will be the WXY correction pattern which will ends up on the .382 fibonacci retracement at around $9147 region. Or there will be the WXYXZ which is more complicated than the first structure which will leads the price to lower zone at the golden pocket between $7000 - $6800 region.
Actually, taking any position is not wise right now. We have to wait for further confirmation whether this will be the 1st, 2nd or the 3rd scenarios will occur.
