ADA/USD April 18 - More down - 1.30, hope for next week breakout
As forecast, ADA/USD fell again yesterday, though not as low as possible. Price action was slow to move during the day, in contrast to bigger swings of previous days. Today may be similar.
The correction risk that I highlighted several days ago continues to play out. Most significantly, today we see in the 1-day chart the green EMA indicator having crossed below level 50 and the red RSI near level 80. If this candle closes today or tomorrow with the green below 50 and RSI below 80, then prices are likely to go to the yellow basis line, which is currently 1.27.
Beyond the day, many chart intervals are closing today (2D, 3D, 4D, 6D, Weekly, 9D, 12D). With so many candles closing, tomorrow will give us a lot of clarity on the next week and beyond.
The 8-day candle still has 5 days left, and it indicates that a breakout may be possible either at the end of the next 5 days or in the following 8 day candle. This suggests that the next leg up, as high as $3+, is still valid and could start next week.
Intraday (next 24 hours)
Summary: Continued fall in prices, between 1.30 and 1.35, possibly lower at end of day.
3H - All indicators well below 50. Lower lows are likely with green EMA below white, breaking below 1.35 in the first few hours of the day.
6H - All indicators below 50, showing downward momentum. Green and white EMA low. Prices likely between lower aqua and orange B-bands, 1.35 to 1.31.
12H - RSI just above 50 while green EMA flat around 43. This suggests prices are unlikely to have a major drop (e.g., 1.24) but remain around the yellow basis like, currently at 1.33.
1D - Green EMA has crossed below 50 with white EMA very low at -9. If RSI were to fall to level 80 or below during the day, prices would be likely to drop to the yellow basis line of 1.27 or below tomorrow. If not, prices should be expected to bounce.
Multiday (rest of this week)
Summary: Most charts close today, but looking 5D, 8D, 10D suggests sideways action between 1.30 and 1.45 for the next few days.
5D (3 days left) - Indicators above level 50, but flat. Prices likely around upper white B-band, 1.32 to 1.56 with a bias toward the bottom of that range.
8D (5 days left) - LSMA very high while green EMA has crossed above RSI to the upside. white EMA still below 50, but near a breakout point in next candle (not current). Prices likely between upper white and upper aqua B-Bands, 1.17 to 1.46.
10D (3 days left) - Less optimistic than the 5D but similar. Sideways around upper aqua B-Band (1.34) with bias towards downside.
Good luck and good fortune!
The correction risk that I highlighted several days ago continues to play out. Most significantly, today we see in the 1-day chart the green EMA indicator having crossed below level 50 and the red RSI near level 80. If this candle closes today or tomorrow with the green below 50 and RSI below 80, then prices are likely to go to the yellow basis line, which is currently 1.27.
Beyond the day, many chart intervals are closing today (2D, 3D, 4D, 6D, Weekly, 9D, 12D). With so many candles closing, tomorrow will give us a lot of clarity on the next week and beyond.
The 8-day candle still has 5 days left, and it indicates that a breakout may be possible either at the end of the next 5 days or in the following 8 day candle. This suggests that the next leg up, as high as $3+, is still valid and could start next week.
Intraday (next 24 hours)
Summary: Continued fall in prices, between 1.30 and 1.35, possibly lower at end of day.
3H - All indicators well below 50. Lower lows are likely with green EMA below white, breaking below 1.35 in the first few hours of the day.
6H - All indicators below 50, showing downward momentum. Green and white EMA low. Prices likely between lower aqua and orange B-bands, 1.35 to 1.31.
12H - RSI just above 50 while green EMA flat around 43. This suggests prices are unlikely to have a major drop (e.g., 1.24) but remain around the yellow basis like, currently at 1.33.
1D - Green EMA has crossed below 50 with white EMA very low at -9. If RSI were to fall to level 80 or below during the day, prices would be likely to drop to the yellow basis line of 1.27 or below tomorrow. If not, prices should be expected to bounce.
Multiday (rest of this week)
Summary: Most charts close today, but looking 5D, 8D, 10D suggests sideways action between 1.30 and 1.45 for the next few days.
5D (3 days left) - Indicators above level 50, but flat. Prices likely around upper white B-band, 1.32 to 1.56 with a bias toward the bottom of that range.
8D (5 days left) - LSMA very high while green EMA has crossed above RSI to the upside. white EMA still below 50, but near a breakout point in next candle (not current). Prices likely between upper white and upper aqua B-Bands, 1.17 to 1.46.
10D (3 days left) - Less optimistic than the 5D but similar. Sideways around upper aqua B-Band (1.34) with bias towards downside.
Good luck and good fortune!
Comment:
Quick update: We just hit 1.30, and longer intraday timeframes indicate that we are likely to go lower. There is a fair amount of resistance at 1.30, but if that falls, then 1.25 is in play. This is a good buying zone, especially if we can stay above 1.25 at the end of the day, keeping the end of the month breakout to the upside intact. As always, be sure to manage your risk and trade accordingly.
Comment:
Quick update 2: Today's drop has turned into a dump, with double digit losses across the market. ADA/USD support has broken at 1.25 and 1.20. We have already seen 1.11 briefly. Further losses can be expected. 1.11 has some resistance, but the next fib would be 1.03. The region around 1.03 and 1.00 should provide strong resistance if 1.11 cannot hold.
Comment:
Update 3: ADA/USD is trying to find a bottom. Although prices wicked to the 1.03 fib, it is looking like the bottom may be between 1.11 and 1.20 for now. Ideally, price will recover to at least 1.25 today to keep the May breakout intact.