ADA Sideways 1-2 Days, 1.00 after, and note on buying zones
ADA/USD has shown more strength than forecast by pushing above 1.08 and flirting with the 1.11 fib, even spiking to 1.15 during the day before again falling to just under 1.11. However, this slightly upward movement is losing momentum. With new candles in the daily, 2d, 3D, and 4D we have a much clearer view of the rest of this calendar month of March.
Short-term (intraday, daily)
Yesterday's upward momentum has exhausted in the 90m to 6H timeframes. While the green EMA is headed lower, the red RSI and blue LSMA levels are flat, even in the 12 hour. This suggests more sideways action in the intraday period. While we could see another spike to 1.15, prices are likely to continue to flirt with 1.11.
Near-term (2D to 5D)
With new 1D through 4D charts, price action the rest of this month has become much clearer:
End of March, First Week of April
While the next couple of days should see sideways action, the odds of prices dropping to 1.00 or below increase as we get closer to the final days of the month. Of course there are risks from fundamentals that could upset this. For example, full Cardano dencentralization is expected on March 31. While this is not a surprise and has been a gradual change, it could result in sudden changes in price. We should expect April to be a month that sets up the next wave of the Altcoin season in May.
Buying Zones and Strategy
My current approach to buying zones (which may or may not work for you) is correlated to Fibonacci and key psychological levels for buying and selling. Accumulation zones and distribution zones are the same, depending on the direction of price action. For instance, 1.00 or below is a good accumulation zone at the moment because it is a significant psychological level and near to fibs at .97 and 1.11. The next AZ below would be around .89 and .75 below that.
Above the current price level (1.10) we have seen 1.20 as a strong level, which is also a fib. Next is 1.50, a key psychological level and near to the 1.456 and 1.53 fibs. Beyond that are 1.83 and 2.46 fibs. Any sharp rise to these levels should be considered as a distribution zone to sell and take profits, then wait for the retracement to reach the accumulation zone at one of the next lower levels.
For example, recently we saw a spike from a low near 1.00 to a peak of 1.47, which is in the region of the fib at 1.45 and below the 1.50 psychological level (strong area of resistance). We retraced first to 1.20 and then to 1.11. Thus we are currently in an accumulation zone and would look to distribute again in the 1.50 region, unless that level is strongly passed and ADA rises to the next level at 1.83.
Good luck and good fortune!
Short-term (intraday, daily)
Yesterday's upward momentum has exhausted in the 90m to 6H timeframes. While the green EMA is headed lower, the red RSI and blue LSMA levels are flat, even in the 12 hour. This suggests more sideways action in the intraday period. While we could see another spike to 1.15, prices are likely to continue to flirt with 1.11.
Near-term (2D to 5D)
With new 1D through 4D charts, price action the rest of this month has become much clearer:
- 1D - As with intraday, sideways around 1.11
- 2D - RSI and LSMA are just above 50 and flat, while green EMA is slowing its descent at 25, and white EMA is very low at under 10. This indicates continued downward momentum. If the LSMA crosses below 50, the Bollinger Bands will open up and the lower white B-band will be a likely target (currently at 1.01). However, prices lower than 1.00 are uncertian in this timeframe.
- 3D - The 3D chart shows a strong move of the green EMA and white EMA below level 50. Until the 3D candle closes with these indicators below level 50, we cannot say that prices will very likely drop to the yellow dotted basis line. But, with the EMA's now firmly under level 50 and RSI nearing level 50 and LSMA dropping as well, chances are good that prices will reach 1.00 or just below by March 29.
- 4D - White EMA is below 50 and falling, while green EMA is at level 58 and descending. Without a reversal or strong support, the next candle (March 30 to April 3) could see the green EMA crossing below level 50 notably increasing the odds of prices falling to the basis, which would be around the 0.89 fib.
End of March, First Week of April
While the next couple of days should see sideways action, the odds of prices dropping to 1.00 or below increase as we get closer to the final days of the month. Of course there are risks from fundamentals that could upset this. For example, full Cardano dencentralization is expected on March 31. While this is not a surprise and has been a gradual change, it could result in sudden changes in price. We should expect April to be a month that sets up the next wave of the Altcoin season in May.
Buying Zones and Strategy
My current approach to buying zones (which may or may not work for you) is correlated to Fibonacci and key psychological levels for buying and selling. Accumulation zones and distribution zones are the same, depending on the direction of price action. For instance, 1.00 or below is a good accumulation zone at the moment because it is a significant psychological level and near to fibs at .97 and 1.11. The next AZ below would be around .89 and .75 below that.
Above the current price level (1.10) we have seen 1.20 as a strong level, which is also a fib. Next is 1.50, a key psychological level and near to the 1.456 and 1.53 fibs. Beyond that are 1.83 and 2.46 fibs. Any sharp rise to these levels should be considered as a distribution zone to sell and take profits, then wait for the retracement to reach the accumulation zone at one of the next lower levels.
For example, recently we saw a spike from a low near 1.00 to a peak of 1.47, which is in the region of the fib at 1.45 and below the 1.50 psychological level (strong area of resistance). We retraced first to 1.20 and then to 1.11. Thus we are currently in an accumulation zone and would look to distribute again in the 1.50 region, unless that level is strongly passed and ADA rises to the next level at 1.83.
Good luck and good fortune!
Comment:
Quick update: Today's price spike to nearly 1.30 coincided with BTC's drop in price due to options expiry, and the prospect of further decline in BTC/USD. Investors appear to have shifted capital to altcoins. This has allowed ADA to regain the 1.20 level. In the coming hours we will see if this becomes the new support. In the past 1.20 has been a strong level of support, psychologically and as a fib. The 3D chart is still indicating a downward move to/near the basis at 1.00, but traders should prepare for the potential that 1.00 may not be seen again, and the closest accumulation zone will be around 1.11 on a dip.