ADA to 1.30, a dip to 1.15 and no ATH in next 5 days
Summary
Analysis
In the past day BTC options expired. In my last update I discussed volatility from external factors such as BTC options expiry. I should have made that point more prominent. Generally I find my forecasts based on technical analysis to be within the area of probability expected. When price action significantly deviates from expectations it is usually because of events and changes in fundamentals. In fact, the only spikes that we've had this month (to the 1.45 area) are due to events, not TA moves. As my skills continue to develop I hope to have better insight into these issues and incorporate them into my analysis. For now, be aware of this weakness in my analysis.
The BTC options expiry dropped BTC to $51k, causing many investors to look for other places to put their capital. ADA was among a few coins that benefited from this shift of capital, temporarily pushing prices to 1.29 before settling around the 1.20 fib. Dips to 1.15 and 1.11 present buying opportunities, while 1.00 is off the table for now.
Short-term (intraday) - 1.20 to 1.25 with possible dip to 1.15
6H and 12H, RSI and LSMA moving above 50 means increased upward pressure and expanding Bollinger bands. For now this looks constrained to the upper white to aqua B-bands in the 6H, and between the yellow basis and upper white band in the 12H, which should keep prices under 1.30.
1D chart RSI and LSMA are still below level 50, which will put drag on upward momentum above the yellow basis line.
Near/Mid-term (2D to 5D) - 1.30 area possible but mostly sideways
All multiday intervals are still showing downward momentum (stable or descending) in the white EMA
RSI and LSMA are still high, allowing for prices to rise again to 1.45 with enough upward pressure (e.g., a change in fundamentals), but these indicators also continue their decline, narrowing the Bollinger bands and limiting upside.
The 3D chart (with 2 days left) is at level 50 keeping open the possibility of a decline towards 1.00, though less probable.
With the new 1 week and 2 week charts on the 29th, we will see what the first half of April has in store. I suspect this is when we will see a chance to test 1.50.
Soon, I will also try to post an idea about prices in April, May, and realistic price targets for the rest of the year.
- 1.20 is the new support level
- 1.30 possible, but without change in fundamentals, no sustained move to ATH likely in next 1 week.
- Possible buying opportunity at 1.15 region intraday
- Possible buying opportunity at 1.10 region March 29-31
- 1.00 unlikely unless 3D candle closes (in 2 days) below level 50
Analysis
In the past day BTC options expired. In my last update I discussed volatility from external factors such as BTC options expiry. I should have made that point more prominent. Generally I find my forecasts based on technical analysis to be within the area of probability expected. When price action significantly deviates from expectations it is usually because of events and changes in fundamentals. In fact, the only spikes that we've had this month (to the 1.45 area) are due to events, not TA moves. As my skills continue to develop I hope to have better insight into these issues and incorporate them into my analysis. For now, be aware of this weakness in my analysis.
The BTC options expiry dropped BTC to $51k, causing many investors to look for other places to put their capital. ADA was among a few coins that benefited from this shift of capital, temporarily pushing prices to 1.29 before settling around the 1.20 fib. Dips to 1.15 and 1.11 present buying opportunities, while 1.00 is off the table for now.
Short-term (intraday) - 1.20 to 1.25 with possible dip to 1.15
6H and 12H, RSI and LSMA moving above 50 means increased upward pressure and expanding Bollinger bands. For now this looks constrained to the upper white to aqua B-bands in the 6H, and between the yellow basis and upper white band in the 12H, which should keep prices under 1.30.
1D chart RSI and LSMA are still below level 50, which will put drag on upward momentum above the yellow basis line.
Near/Mid-term (2D to 5D) - 1.30 area possible but mostly sideways
All multiday intervals are still showing downward momentum (stable or descending) in the white EMA
RSI and LSMA are still high, allowing for prices to rise again to 1.45 with enough upward pressure (e.g., a change in fundamentals), but these indicators also continue their decline, narrowing the Bollinger bands and limiting upside.
The 3D chart (with 2 days left) is at level 50 keeping open the possibility of a decline towards 1.00, though less probable.
With the new 1 week and 2 week charts on the 29th, we will see what the first half of April has in store. I suspect this is when we will see a chance to test 1.50.
Soon, I will also try to post an idea about prices in April, May, and realistic price targets for the rest of the year.
Comment:
Mid-day update: We dipped to 1.156 as forecast. In the 90m, 3H, and 6H there is continuing downward momentum that may move prices below 1.15 to the 1.11 region. If we dip farther to 1.11, it presents a buying opportunity worth considering.
Comment:
Update for new day: I am short on time today, so this is just a quick update for now based on the new daily candle.
After dipping yesterday to 1.56 as expected, ADA has attempted to regain the 1.20 support level but has been unable to do so. 1.20 is now resistance. Thus prices either need to break through resistance at 1.20 to continue up or head lower. The new day and intraday charts are indicating generally downward pressure, with only the 1D daily chart showing continued (but dropping) upward pressure.
The 12 hour is showing the most interesting situation with green and white EMAs below 50 and descending, while blue LSMA is trending to go below 50. If the current 12 hour canlde closes at or below current levels, this would put the lower white Bollinger Band in play meaning a drop to 1.11 would be expected. The 1D daily upward momentum will act as a counterbalance, however, and may keep prices from dropping that low.
Forecast of likely intraday price action in the following timeframes:
3H - Down, 1.15 possible
6H - Down, 1.15 likely
12H - Down, 1.11 possible in next (not current) 12H candle
Daily - Sideways between 1.15 and 1.20
Tomorrow will be many new candles, including new weekly and 2 week candles. Using those I will provide a bigger update from now until mid-April, where I believe we may see our next upward wave starting.
Good luck and good fortune!
After dipping yesterday to 1.56 as expected, ADA has attempted to regain the 1.20 support level but has been unable to do so. 1.20 is now resistance. Thus prices either need to break through resistance at 1.20 to continue up or head lower. The new day and intraday charts are indicating generally downward pressure, with only the 1D daily chart showing continued (but dropping) upward pressure.
The 12 hour is showing the most interesting situation with green and white EMAs below 50 and descending, while blue LSMA is trending to go below 50. If the current 12 hour canlde closes at or below current levels, this would put the lower white Bollinger Band in play meaning a drop to 1.11 would be expected. The 1D daily upward momentum will act as a counterbalance, however, and may keep prices from dropping that low.
Forecast of likely intraday price action in the following timeframes:
3H - Down, 1.15 possible
6H - Down, 1.15 likely
12H - Down, 1.11 possible in next (not current) 12H candle
Daily - Sideways between 1.15 and 1.20
Tomorrow will be many new candles, including new weekly and 2 week candles. Using those I will provide a bigger update from now until mid-April, where I believe we may see our next upward wave starting.
Good luck and good fortune!