The semiconductor industry is in a downtrend. Especially with NVDA and AMD. They have been making consistent 52 week lows for the past 3 days. Even with SPY making more than 1% on last two days combined, AMD lost around 9.5% which means even a strong market couldn't save it, which doesn't look good for it.
On Friday, AMD rejected the long term support in the 72.8-73.5 areas (basically it closed right above it). However, the close wasn't quite strong. Here is a list of supports and resistances.
Supports
Resistances
Bearish Scenario (50-70% chances)
After breaking S1, it quickly breaks S1.5 and then consolidates under for a day or two (or maybe a day or two green as well) and then it goes on to touch somewhere near S2 and bounce hard from there (we might see some green days in between). Target areas would be fib extensions (which results in values of 78.7, 84.57, 90.44 & maybe 98.79 & 109.43 (which are less likely). However, if it continues to go up, then 116, 125. What support this thesis? AMD earnings which are on 27th July and the last hard run started 2 days before earnings.
We could also think the
Bullish Scenario (30-40% chances)
Assuming S1 or S1.5 are the bottom for this leg down, we can expect it to move up in a zig zag just like the movement before the last earnings. Up to 85.8-87 first, then trace back to 80-81, then back to 95 or maybe 100 (this coincides with the ER) and then the flush down.
Last Retracement:
In my opinion, the temporary bottom isn't in yet and the earnings run is going to be later (most probably from 21-22 July)
On Friday, AMD rejected the long term support in the 72.8-73.5 areas (basically it closed right above it). However, the close wasn't quite strong. Here is a list of supports and resistances.
Supports
- S1: 72.8-73.5
- S1.5: 69.9-70 (not as strong that's why didn't call it S2, if S1 breaks, there is a low chance of this holding.)
- S2: 59-61 (going back to Feb/July 2022)
Resistances
- R1: 80-81
- R2: 85-88
- R3: 96-98
Bearish Scenario (50-70% chances)
After breaking S1, it quickly breaks S1.5 and then consolidates under for a day or two (or maybe a day or two green as well) and then it goes on to touch somewhere near S2 and bounce hard from there (we might see some green days in between). Target areas would be fib extensions (which results in values of 78.7, 84.57, 90.44 & maybe 98.79 & 109.43 (which are less likely). However, if it continues to go up, then 116, 125. What support this thesis? AMD earnings which are on 27th July and the last hard run started 2 days before earnings.
We could also think the
Bullish Scenario (30-40% chances)
Assuming S1 or S1.5 are the bottom for this leg down, we can expect it to move up in a zig zag just like the movement before the last earnings. Up to 85.8-87 first, then trace back to 80-81, then back to 95 or maybe 100 (this coincides with the ER) and then the flush down.
Last Retracement:
In my opinion, the temporary bottom isn't in yet and the earnings run is going to be later (most probably from 21-22 July)
Comment:
S1 is already broken in the PreMarket. Let's see if it can reclaim once market opens. If no, then 70 is the zone to watch.
