Potential Bearish BAT pattern on daily AMD chart.
Good long for a week or 2 swing trade. Nothing too dramatic here like the 200+ pip USD/JPY call, but something that could earn a few bucks. Let's see what happens.
I bought 5 JUL7 $14 CALLs @ $0.19/Contract
I'm also short 13 Oct20 $11 PUTs @ $1.37/Contract (these were purchased last week)
I bought 5 JUL7 $14 CALLs @ $0.19/Contract
I'm also short 13 Oct20 $11 PUTs @ $1.37/Contract (these were purchased last week)
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Ok - so it only took 1 day to hit the lower end of the PRZ. I couldn't fault those wishing to exit around $14. The options I bought yesterday are up over 250%, and I'm kicking myself for not buying more...
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Momentum appears to be very strong still. As we enter into the close, I anticipate that we will end the day at or near the highs. If that occurs, I would think that tomorrow could yield yet another day of more upside. I'll likely hold my positions for at least another day.
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Ok - so today we did indeed move further up the PRZ. While the BAT formation can technically run up a bit more, I'll be monitoring action & looking for a completion of the pattern, and a subsequent short entry.
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Ok - Potential reversal in progress/peak @ $14.67. This is kind of going out on a limb as I'm going off a 5min chart which shows a developing cypher pattern, with the potential "C point" completing at $14.67. This stock has had so much momentum, but as mentioned above, we are currently in the PRZ, and therefore we are expecting a potential reversal. Initial estimates are for a target at around $13.77.
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After analyzing things once again, the charting seems to portend that we have indeed reversed course. Now for trying to figure out where our next turn point will be. A good argument can be made for things turning around right here in the area of Friday's close - as it is just about to hit a significant area of support/resistance.
I'm going to go out on a limb however and say that price will push down even further before making a meaningful reversal back up. Here are several scenarios that I present as potential turn point options:
1. There appears to be good evidence of a BULLISH CYPHER forming on the 5M chart. Should this indeed be the case. The CD leg should terminate at around the $13.77 mark.
2. If prices start to push below the $13.77 mark, there is also the potential for this to evolve into a BULLISH SHARK pattern. This would make for a lower PRZ in the range of: $13,26 - $13.69, should that scenario play out.
3. Then there's a gap right below that which could see prices fall to around the $12.65 - $13.13 range if it gets filled. There are also gaps below this range, but I think it'll be very slim for those gaps to be filled near term at least.
So what will it be? I favor the potential reversal taking place at one of the higher PRZ zones. If I only had one choice it would be Scenario #1, the potential BULLISH CYPHER pattern. While the price is currently sitting right on an important support/resistance zone, the way this segment of chart has set-up is supportive of this being a CYPHER (I'd go into extra details, but this comment is already too long), therefore lending to a high probability of completing the pattern right around the projected PRZ of $13.77.
The other 2 scenarios also offer plausible turn-point target ranges, and if the strong upward momentum recently seen in this stock fails to carry through, it could end up hitting one of these lower price ranges.
I will be busy Monday and away from my computer, but this is my take on what is likely to happen. I'll be looking for a completion of this downward move, and a long opportunity once it does complete.
I did open a small short position by selling the JUL7 14.5Calls @ $0.70. near the peak of this down move right around the time of my previous comment.
Let's see what happens.
I'm going to go out on a limb however and say that price will push down even further before making a meaningful reversal back up. Here are several scenarios that I present as potential turn point options:
1. There appears to be good evidence of a BULLISH CYPHER forming on the 5M chart. Should this indeed be the case. The CD leg should terminate at around the $13.77 mark.
2. If prices start to push below the $13.77 mark, there is also the potential for this to evolve into a BULLISH SHARK pattern. This would make for a lower PRZ in the range of: $13,26 - $13.69, should that scenario play out.
3. Then there's a gap right below that which could see prices fall to around the $12.65 - $13.13 range if it gets filled. There are also gaps below this range, but I think it'll be very slim for those gaps to be filled near term at least.
So what will it be? I favor the potential reversal taking place at one of the higher PRZ zones. If I only had one choice it would be Scenario #1, the potential BULLISH CYPHER pattern. While the price is currently sitting right on an important support/resistance zone, the way this segment of chart has set-up is supportive of this being a CYPHER (I'd go into extra details, but this comment is already too long), therefore lending to a high probability of completing the pattern right around the projected PRZ of $13.77.
The other 2 scenarios also offer plausible turn-point target ranges, and if the strong upward momentum recently seen in this stock fails to carry through, it could end up hitting one of these lower price ranges.
I will be busy Monday and away from my computer, but this is my take on what is likely to happen. I'll be looking for a completion of this downward move, and a long opportunity once it does complete.
I did open a small short position by selling the JUL7 14.5Calls @ $0.70. near the peak of this down move right around the time of my previous comment.
Let's see what happens.
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Please refer to the link above to view a chart of my current analysis
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NOTE: If price doesn't penetrate below this strong area of support, we could potentially see price go to $16+, or the upper PRZ. We shall see what happens.
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While AMD did close down today, it is still hovering near the major support'/resistance. With a low of $13.85, it did get 8 cents away from my initial target. While the technical analysis I employed indeed did point to a downturn, I'm still somewhat amazed that one actually took place, especially with all the strong upward momentum that was associated with this stock last week. Momentum which I hope some of you profited from as I did.