MartyLardy
Long

AMD Holiday Hustle

NASDAQ:AMD   ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC
243 5 3
5 months ago
3Q has been one hell of a ride for AMD             . It's been fun! As we get closer into 3Q earnings i'm expecting a nice little bump into the new high arena. My guess is that we will touch the $8.40 area, following a similar past pattern for the rest of the three months. Ceteris Paribus.

As for the news, I still believe Nintendo             will be using an AMD             x86; the Playstation Pro being released on November 10th; we might be getting a RX490 early release; and lately the announcement and release of Zen_Cpu during CES.

My biggest fears so far will be the DB             earnings which will be released October 27 (buying opportunity)* I will be selling all my short term Options Calls before this event*. I predict a 70% Fibonacci retracement followed by trades hovering around the lower resistance line. However, if we have good news, I expect the trend to be around the historic $7 resistance levels.

Lets see what happens. And good luck everyone! Happy Holidays!
5 months ago
Trade active: Ouch! What a beating! I'm still in it for the long run. According to AMD's guidence, 4Q will have lower expectations then last year. However, I believe AMD will almost meet 3Q earnings of 1.1B to 1.2B in the 4q. I'm still hopping for a few magic bullets like: Vega, Zen, and other special investments.

I've loaded up on my shares. I still believe that we will be going to 8 in the near term.

As for what I think will happen...Stay ABOVE THE RED LIKE... OR SLIGHTLY UNDER IT! AND MOVE TO 1Q ALREADY! heh...
5 months ago
Trade active: ***edit ...According to AMD's Guidance, 4Q will have lower expectations then last quarter(3Q).
5 months ago
Trade active: Wow. What a pop! Can we push towards the $8 dollar mark as the Apple event gets closer? Macbook, Macbook pro, IMac, IMac Pro w/ Polaris? Lets find out.
4 months ago
Comment: i'm still in it! i believe Trumps Economic Plan will be good for the Tech Sector. From an Economist Point of view, his Supply Side / Reagan 2.0 (voodoo 2.0) will help American companies. He believes that supply and demand should fix itself w/ out regulations. I see strong growth in the Tech Sector. =)
4 months ago
Trade active: Lets give a recap for 2Q-4Q 2016:

Nintendo is w/ NVDA
Playstation 4 Neo will be released on 11/10
Xbox One S in stores
Playstation 4 Slim in stores
Radeon RX 400 Series are in stores
Laptop GPU sales (Apple,etc...)
APU inside small form factor PCs (Lenovo,Dell, HP, etc...)
Alibaba Deal (Cloud Servers)
Radeon is partnering w/ Cinema 4D
Chinese x86 deal w/ Chinese Joint Venture

1Q-2Q 2017
Zen CPU
Vega 10 + 11 GPU
1 more SOC Deal
Entering Server Market
Expanding Desktop Sales
Expanding Laptop Sales
ARM(s) Race
Cell Phone Market ???

Lets find out!

So far we're looking Very GOOD!
4 months ago
Trade closed: stop reached: i've decided to play it safe. I closed out all my calls and cashed in all my shares. For the people who will get angry with me , i understand. And to be perfectly honest I made 98k off this deal.

I'm still bullish and i'm finding a new entry point where i'll buy Future Calls once this stock cools down. I missed bunch of swing trade opportunities and the drama had me more bi-polar then the earth wobbling around the sun.

This time around i'm going to wait for the 40-50% FB retrenchment, enter a strong future April or 2018 option and swing for another bullish opportunity! My last 5 options and shares were a bit sloppy and careless so i figure i would exit and re enter and this time around be a bit wiser. =)(

For the people who have been following me, i've always wanted this stock to hit 8. And today, we blew past it!

CONGRATULATIONS EVERYONE!

We're going to $30! ZEN + VEGA!
3 months ago
Comment: About to re-enter!

i'm about to re-enter AMD. I still believe there will be a huge upside swing in the near future. Im going to keep my eyes wide open on tomorrow's action.

AMD Event and CES is nearing soon. 1QR earrings should be GREAT!

Lets hope the stock market can keep the flow. I believe the bond market has transferred its wealth into the Stock Market. I see this pump to last a little longer.
3 months ago
Trade active: Today I picked up 200 shares of Jan18,2019 $12Calls. I wanted to play it safe while shooting for the highest levels of profit.

if AMD goes well @ $16.40 + I can hit a 250%+ return. Each 100 lots costed me $18,000.

Word on the street is that the i7 7700k will be under performing ( a very slight increase over the i7 6700k). AMD has 6 months to win market share until Cannon Lake arrives! However, after that time period, i am unsure what will happen in the CPU market. Furthermore, around 2-3q Vega will be introduced and released.

Lets go AMD!
Pacorretaco
5 months ago
snapshot


I'd say downside until earnings day, and then wave 5

Cheers
Reply
MartyLardy Pacorretaco
5 months ago
4.89 seems to be a bit overly bearish wouldn't you say? Unless you have Put Options around that price point. In conclusion, wave 5 is looking nice! =)
Reply
Pacorretaco MartyLardy
5 months ago
Yeah, it may be too much, those drawings are just pattern lines after all.
Although if we only got a retest of the 5.60s, we could also see a bigger consolidation in that range.

The downside is limited anyway

Cheers
Reply
Pacorretaco Pacorretaco
4 months ago
snapshot


Reply
tagraf
5 months ago
Now that we learned what goes on in the Earning Report on Q3 -- (source: http://quarterlyearnings.amd.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=74093&p=quarterlyearnings)

We have a mixed understanding of the status quo -- it is improved and it is in all good news. But turn out that shareholder seem to be selling -- the stock market went down the day after (on Friday 10/21/16). But on Monday (10/24/16) -- It bounce back up of now roughly more than $6.98....Seem your forecasting remain true. There may be a chance that the result for Q4 turns to good news but AMD made a statement that it won't be good.

So far, the status right now is still good (Monday: 10/24/16) -- And hope the continuous next day will keep rising.
Reply
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