AMGN had an incomplete breakout from it's cup and handle pattern a few months ago. It was quick to pull back and has struggled ever since. I decided to dissect this chart
I see a Symmetrical triangle as the main pattern right now that may determine what happens to AMGN. I am a pattern trader but we all know that S triangles can go either way. It is a continuation pattern, a period of indecision and consolidation
But whichever way they go, price needs to break the trendline consistently and the trend must be confirmed in that direction. In other words, one candle wick that pops through does not mean the S Triangle is going that way. And even when price clearly breaks through, there is no guarantee the pattern will not fail
Symmetric triangles differ from rising wedges in that a rising wedge has both trendlines sloping up and a triangle does not. A Symmetrical triangle has one line sloping down and one line sloping up
Rising wedges are often bearish and occur during uptrends, and can occur in all sizes. And a stock can break up from a rising wedge. It is not always down, but the break out if not usually a sustainable move up. I have never seen so many stocks in rising wedges since the flu hit the market this year. If a stock breaks up and out of the rising wedge along with a B/O from their C&H pattern, like AMGN did a while back, (so did CRM, and numerous others,) the break out is often weak or does not stick like it should. Very often, a marked downtrend will occur after the incomplete breakout (stock breaks from the cup and handle or whatever pattern it breaks from, but the aftermath is ugly) Best for me to just not trade a stock that is traveling in a rising wedge. It can be a long term pattern as well, very long term. If I post a chart on here, I always try to show the rising wedge that is accompanying the other pattern..because it is a risk. A RW does not mean I can not make money going long. Just gotta be careful
For a downward break out from a rising wedge, you can draw a straight line from the lowest point of the wedge and this is a downward target. Just like anything else, it may not go down that far, but short traders love this pattern because it is easy to calculate the length of the fall. Strong stocks do not do the entire free fall I have noticed. But this year is the first time I have seen so many RWs, so I am still learning. There needs to be 5 touches of the trendlines in both a RW and a S Triangle to validate the pattern. With a bearish rising wedge, there will be a lack of touches on the support trendline. 3 weeks is the minmum duration for a rising wedge to form, otherwise it is a pennant. May be good to compare AMGN's chart with QRVO which has no rising wedges in it' chart this year. News can also break the pattern. Just seems like it is a short lived price move up. Many trade a stock in a RW and you can make a lot of money inside of it. Just beware.
All kinds of patterns in this chart. C&H pattern earlier this year and targets not reached, possibly due to the long term rising wedge in the chart. There are multiple rising wedges in this chart. I put the largest rising wedge on the chart. AMGN has broken the bottom trendline of the large bearish rising wedge
I see a spike of volume at 231ish so may be a key level where buying kicks in but NV has faded.
41% increase in short interest today and price is hovering on the bottom trendline of that S Triangle. Which way will it go? comments welcome (:
Sorry to be so longwinded (long fingered)..lol..not a recommendation
I see a Symmetrical triangle as the main pattern right now that may determine what happens to AMGN. I am a pattern trader but we all know that S triangles can go either way. It is a continuation pattern, a period of indecision and consolidation
But whichever way they go, price needs to break the trendline consistently and the trend must be confirmed in that direction. In other words, one candle wick that pops through does not mean the S Triangle is going that way. And even when price clearly breaks through, there is no guarantee the pattern will not fail
Symmetric triangles differ from rising wedges in that a rising wedge has both trendlines sloping up and a triangle does not. A Symmetrical triangle has one line sloping down and one line sloping up
Rising wedges are often bearish and occur during uptrends, and can occur in all sizes. And a stock can break up from a rising wedge. It is not always down, but the break out if not usually a sustainable move up. I have never seen so many stocks in rising wedges since the flu hit the market this year. If a stock breaks up and out of the rising wedge along with a B/O from their C&H pattern, like AMGN did a while back, (so did CRM, and numerous others,) the break out is often weak or does not stick like it should. Very often, a marked downtrend will occur after the incomplete breakout (stock breaks from the cup and handle or whatever pattern it breaks from, but the aftermath is ugly) Best for me to just not trade a stock that is traveling in a rising wedge. It can be a long term pattern as well, very long term. If I post a chart on here, I always try to show the rising wedge that is accompanying the other pattern..because it is a risk. A RW does not mean I can not make money going long. Just gotta be careful
For a downward break out from a rising wedge, you can draw a straight line from the lowest point of the wedge and this is a downward target. Just like anything else, it may not go down that far, but short traders love this pattern because it is easy to calculate the length of the fall. Strong stocks do not do the entire free fall I have noticed. But this year is the first time I have seen so many RWs, so I am still learning. There needs to be 5 touches of the trendlines in both a RW and a S Triangle to validate the pattern. With a bearish rising wedge, there will be a lack of touches on the support trendline. 3 weeks is the minmum duration for a rising wedge to form, otherwise it is a pennant. May be good to compare AMGN's chart with QRVO which has no rising wedges in it' chart this year. News can also break the pattern. Just seems like it is a short lived price move up. Many trade a stock in a RW and you can make a lot of money inside of it. Just beware.
All kinds of patterns in this chart. C&H pattern earlier this year and targets not reached, possibly due to the long term rising wedge in the chart. There are multiple rising wedges in this chart. I put the largest rising wedge on the chart. AMGN has broken the bottom trendline of the large bearish rising wedge
I see a spike of volume at 231ish so may be a key level where buying kicks in but NV has faded.
41% increase in short interest today and price is hovering on the bottom trendline of that S Triangle. Which way will it go? comments welcome (:
Sorry to be so longwinded (long fingered)..lol..not a recommendation