LA18WOLF39

AMPL Swing Trade Based on Technical Analysis & Market Sentiment

Long
KUCOIN:AMPLBTC   Ampleforth / Bitcoin
This is an interesting one with upside potential that could play out quite rapidly.

Ampleforth is a DeFi play that I found out from Data Dash. Data Dash is the leading cryto Youtuber and has recently been promoting this coin to his hundreds of thousands of followers. This coin went about 8x in just two weeks in July, then pumped 3.5x again after Data Dash promoted it on his channel (it also pumped 50% a week ago). Long story short - this coin can pump very rapidly and has been doing so recently a lot. Which is wonderful because it's down at its biggest level of support (next images will show this). On top of that, the coin just broke a major downtrend line since the beginning of the month and has bullish divergence going on the 4h for both the RSI and the MACD . Market sentiment is excellent for this coin (it has the DeFi craze going for it as well) so hopefully the technicals will play out more favorably than EOS .

Please be aware though - like EOS , this trade could go down the drain if BTC crashes and burns.

So talking about the chart - here we have the BTC pairing for Ampleforth. There are two main things to note: we've just broken out of a major downtrendline that we've been under for the last 2-3 weeks. On top of this, we have classic bullish divergence formed on both the RSI and MACD on the 4h.


Staying with the BTC pairing, this image shows the support I was talking about. This pairing is at the most critical level of support on the entire chart.

https://charts.cointrader.pro/snapshot/t...

This image link from Cointrader isn't loading in, but click on the link or look up Ampleforth on charts.cointrader.pro (free) to get a chart of Ampleforth's marketcap.

This is a chart of Ampleforth's total marketcap. They have been manipulating the supply which has resulted in price changes that're misleading since they were due to the supply changes, rather than demand. Even if you can't see the chart, just know that the total marketcap chart makes is even more clear that we're at the most significant support level in the coin's history.


The last chart here is the USDT pairing. The chart looks similar to the BTC pairing but this chart does a better job showing the beautiful rounding bottom action we have going on. Also something to note - the bollinger bands for this pairing are more coiled than they've been in a month (and we've already had huge pumps over the last month (coiled BBs suggest incoming volatility /pumps)).

I entered at $0.74 on a dip after a breakout of the downtrendline but I think that even where we are now (a few cents higher) makes for a fine entry. I'm planning on adding to my position either on a dip down to the rounding bottom around $0.72 or once we've broke above and are looking like we're gonna hold $0.79-$0.80.

This is a swing trade with large upside potential so I'm putting in a fairly conservative amount of capital and am just going to wait and let it ride. This is also a quality play fundamentally so what I'm saying is I don't have a specific stop loss set yet. I'll be quite surprised if we don't at least get some sort of pump with how the technicals and pump ingredients look so ready to go.

Thanks for reading! Please like and comment if you appreciated this or have any input/critique!

Comment: I'm just updating this idea based on the situation with Bitcoin. There is some bearish divergence on Bitcoin's 4h and 11,200 is an area that could very well reverse. It's actually the .618 retracement of the move down from 12050 to 9800. AMPL performed TERRIBLY during that Bitcoin crash so I'm just giving fair warning. If Bitcoin reverses here then AMPL may very well tank.
Comment:
It's been a fairly uneventful, moderate climb up over the last month. I titled this as a swing trade because the move I've been anticipating for will be a sharp jump upwards (past behavior), but its timing is unpredictable due to the volatility (big moves even from a small amount of capital).

However, the rounding bottom that has continued to form looks to be coming to a head with the critical resistance level just above $1. If price continues to move along the rounding bottom, we will break through the most critical resistance level and would likely see a strong move upwards.

The levels I'll be looking out for are around ~$1.30 and ~$1.50, as these are where the two supply lines come down (one drawn from candle closes and other from wicks). I'm going to continue holding this at least for the mid-term with a goal to exceed those price levels (where we could then see very big moves - especially if there is another DeFi wave).
Comment:
AMPLUSD broke the crucial support level just above $1 and now appears to have broken down out of the rounding bottom as well. It's also looking testing below the recent support line around $0.93. AMPLBTC looks terrible as well, so I am selling the majority of my position while still in profit.

I could be perfectly wrong and this could merely be a wick down that holds, but the opportunity cost of keeping capital here is not worth it for me anymore. This definitely still play out (a lot of people like the fundamentals), but I'd rather move capital into other assets that look promising for entry right now, like ETH.