APX: Cautious View With Levels I May Try to Catch the Knife

After announcing full year results, Appen LTD ASX: APX continued its downward slide to touch support in the 15 AUD region. APX has rallied somewhat recently, but momentum has barely turned positive on the daily and continues to remain negative on the weekly timescales. The 15 AUD level matches up with a past peak in Aug/Sept. 2018 and I believe will be a key area to break before APX can move lower. May and June are typically less bullish months for Australian stocks and that combined with APX continuing to show weakness under the moving averages, I believe we may set a new medium term low in June/July before any bounce into the Half Year earnings report as shorts cover. My expectation is that the 13-14 AUD range will be tested, possibly even lower. If the RSI's line up with both Weekly and Daily oversold with momentum turning less negative, I may accumulate for a possible rally into earnings. Depending on the outcome of earnings in August as well as the general market trend, I could see a trend reversal occurring or a possible move lower to further support in the 8-10 AUD region at which point I might buy the dip. Short term resistance seems to be in the 17 AUD region. Definitely risky on the short term but an interesting company to me long term. What do you think?

Comment:

One note I forgot to mention was that AUD/USD is pushing against resistance near the 0.8 level. Since Appen earns most of their revenue from US firms like Google and Facebook, this could be another potential negative catalyst to watch out for.

Comment:

Appen getting crushed today on what I would assume is lower growth expectations from the investor conference. This continues to be a stock to be very careful around. No sign yet of the downward trend breaking.