mtndgz

ARDR Macro Bullish Trend

Long
mtndgz Updated   
BITTREX:ARDRBTC   Ardor / Bitcoin
Ardor is in an upward trend. My last TA completed an Adam & Eve, but then I zoomed out to see a larger U-Shaped recovery, which it's following nicely. On the two and three day Ichimoku everything is bullish except cloud is still bearish . Tenkin is above Kejun, price is above cloud, and trailing indicator is above price. Having a long timeframe going bullish is very very good. Keep an eye on that. The one day is mega bullish .

We'll have to take this day by day until something breaks the trend, but here are two targets based on nearby peaks and resistance. Target 1, 772 sats which would complete the U-Shape by May 2nd. Target 2, around 1350 sats which is next point of resistance When T2 happens is difficult to predict, if it goes parabolic than early June, other wise by end of year. These can be real nice returns if you've been following since 330 sats . I'll keep updating this if there a re any trend reversals. God speed.
Comment:
Correction, if the trend is linear, than T2 would be July or August. But runs don't stay linear in this crypto world, therefore a parabolic move is more likely. That puts T2 at late April, early May.

However if it's going parablolic like that then it's going to breakdown at T2... or go on the T3 at 4300 sats quickly. This ofcourse is vs. bitcoin, which sill be going up. So ARDRUSD would be hyperbolic.
Comment:
Ardor may just blaze it's own path straight up. But going along with this TA: 2-day Ichi at cross of bullish cloud, which is the last domino to fall in full on bullish. Not there yet. Resistance level is proving to be resistance, that is the u-shaped full recovery zone. Price could go sideways, with volume creating a u-shape as in the past spike and recoveries. Therefore it could come back to u-shape line and continue up to T1 at May.
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Thought I'd better label this. Added possible path, that would test resistance zone. Which should happen a number of times.
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Welp, i'm not sure what to say here other than it seems Ardor is only becoming more bullish. It's raising at a faster rate than I plotted for a u-shape recovery. I'm not sure that's a bad thing, it could be from gaining more awareness from speculators becoming fundamentalists. The 2-day cloud is more bullish today. My crocked path seems to be invalid, and Ardor is taking it's own shortcut. Or could pull back, but either way strong sentiment.

This image was taken with 3 hours remaining in 2-day chart.
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Still bullish. Came back to u-shape after getting wild and out. Resistance was resistance. Probably hit it a few more times before break through. Target 1 in a early May.

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Adding that cloud is more bullish. Also, funny enough, price followed my squigly line from previous comment.
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Target 1 reached. Ardor blew straight up. Hope it keeps this up to Target 2!.
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Ardor got wild and out again with a big upside move and now coming back to U-Shape recovery. I suspect these fluctuations are speculators making price unstable. Fundamentally there are good projects being released on Ardor in this year. That makes steady hands which are not distributing. You can see it's not a sell of, but price action.
Read up on Ardor, and it's genesis NXT. These were, and still are crypto 2.0. Ethereum is trying to get to what Ardor has. And other coins aren't on mainnet.

Comment:
Taking a step back and looking at performance. Ardor is keeping up with Crypto Market cap, not beating it but keeping up. It is besting BTC which is a good place to be.
So if you feel blue about missing major spike, don't worry you are still doing well.
I think this analysis still stands and we follow curve onward. We'll have to wait and see about the "Handle" of the cup, if that is followed, or just go up.

I'm still long.

Comment:
Still looks good even with all the market turbulence. This image has B-Bands and the mean is following the u-shape quite well.

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bumpy week but Ardor is still following trend on 2-day chart. The two day looks good, with EMA following trend, cloud bullish

But I want to zoom in to show how strong the Support/Resistance zone is. You can see price bunching up against it. So either it gets rejected and goes down from here, or, as I presume since BTC is becoming bullish (as if it turned bearish) and rising again Ardor will too. BTC market share was decreasing, but in the last few day Alt and BTC market cap are increasing at the same rate. Therefore the whole market appears to be benefiting. Very soon Ardor could start to have big gains on a daily basis after blasting through the resistance zone.
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Are we really doing the Handle?
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If you squint hard enough you can believe you see a handle forming
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This is the point, after retracing 30%, we should soon find out if this is the handle and Ardor turns around or the pattern is invalidated. It does appear to be following the pattern for now.
One day Ichimoku cloud has turned bearish. Two day cloud is still bullish, the Tekin has gone under the Kejun which is bearish.

Comment:
the "Handle" is now approaching 50% retracement, typically retraces 30%. If it goes any lower the "Cup & Handle" will probably be invalidated. Crypto's a bit different and the space has been hit hard during this retracement, so giving it more room, but likely at that point I'd close this idea.

Trade closed: stop reached:
First target was reached. Then became possible cup and handle. Latest drop indicates it's not a C&H and pattern is broken. THE END
Trade closed: target reached:
Target 1 reached. Target 2 not going to happen
Comment:
I've been thinking about this for a while now. Maybe closed trade to soon. Maybe the handle is longer, and price fluctuations are still following the handle trend.

Just maybe.

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Appears to still be following the handle. Seems like in near future it would break the neck line and shoot up.

Comment:
Looks like handle test was rejected. So not likely to break out.


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