Market Outlook - Growth (9/13/2021)

The market choppiness continues in growth as we see a down day to end the week. Since Feb 2021 we have been very range bound in growth while we are getting divergence in the QQQ & SPY. Really waiting for the IWM to break out of the current range it is in. If you look we can see we have been testing the bottom support 5 times while only testing the top of the resistance 4ish times. This recent time the market did not let it get to support and sold it off early which could mean this is now making lower highs and going to either breakdown or breakaway. The longer the resistance / support is tested the bigger the move up or down. For perspective, growth is probably digesting its gains from the prior year on its very explosive move. We are currently at a important level as we are below the 150MA. For IWM the next two weeks will be telling to see if we continue to be range bound or we break higher/lower. As for ARKK we are seeing the 150MA now sloping downward which is a big area and sign imo. We have somewhat of a VCP pattern within ARKK but with the 150MA slopping downward it makes me somewhat concerned for growth moving forward.

Overall outlook - Staying defensive until the market gives me a reason to be bullish again. I have seen "insurance" (options for hedges) at a high which means there is a lot of worry in the market, and most of the time when moves down happen it is when everyone is bullish so its a very mixed bag at the moment. We are still in a confirmed uptrend and is innocent until proven guilty but I would be careful at this current time trying to preserve the gains I made in the recent up-swing.