Potential 2018 style bottom for ARKW in place

Lynxys Updated   
AMEX:ARKW   ARK Next Generation Internet ETF
The ARKs have had it rough the past year and I know of the comparisons to the tech bubble pattern, which does look scary.
But as ARKW shows here, it hasn't broken it's long term trend yet and it could present a buy opportunity.

I copied the pattern from 2018 and pasted it here to show a possible bullish path that ARKW may take.

This pattern makes sense to me:
  • You have ARKW bouncing at the bottom of this channel all times except once, the covid drop, and now we have a reversal in progress that was triggered right at channel support.
  • The most over sold weekly RSI since 2016 and incredibly bearish sentiment.
    200 day EMA (pink line) just almost touched the price, last time it touched was the covid bottom.
  • That covid oversell out of the channel caused it to sling shot into an overbuy out of the channel, which then triggered this year long punishment for the ARKs.
  • Investors likely are going to be afraid of holding the ARKs long term after this drop, so ARKW would slow down around 125 (if it can get there) as people start to trim their positions.
  • As it runs out of investors trimming, it breaks out and flies. This could take as long as near the fall of this year though.

If ARKW breaks below this channel and stays under the 200 EMA, then I would start getting worried and risk off.
It has to move as fast as possible to 125 to start to give confidence again, I'm hoping to see it there by spring time and consolidate as it hits the 50 and 21 EMA.
Good luck to all the bulls.

Note: There's a high probability that a long-term speculation like this doesn't play out exactly as I say, since there's always unforeseen events that can happen. Make sure to manage your own risk!
ARKW has broke the trend line support today, so that's not looking good. I'm waiting to see if it can close above 100 by the end of the week. If it doesn't, then I'll be getting concerned about a long term trend change.

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