FlowState

AUD/USD: Correlation w/AU Yield Curve Re-emerges, RBA Rate Cut?

Short
It's worth noting that the last 3 episodes of a flatter yield curve in Australia have led to a depreciation of the Australian Dollar. There are a few conclusions one can draw from this observation:
1. It suggests AUD traders have been, as of late, factoring more aggressively into the price domestic factors such as a more dovish RBA outlook.
2. The market is anticipating sub-par growth in the Australian economy mid to long-term.
3. A flattener structure during times of neutral policy increases the risk of a rate cut by the RBA as poor data, fundamentals (household debt, consumers more cautious) weigh.
4. The slide in the AUD in tandem with the bull flattener structure communicates a slowdown in AUD capital inflows.
5. What #4 implies is that the flattening of the curve can serve as a more accurate predictor of AUD valuations.

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