4xForecaster
Long

$AUD / $CAD - Completed Geo.; Rally To 1-4 Line Probable #forex

FX:AUDCAD   Australian Dollar/Canadian Dollar
526 21 14
Large geometry completed at Point-5. Waiting to cross > level of point-3 is the prudent, time consumptive part of this long consideration.

Look for discreet overhead resistance as shown. Bulls are coming in force.

Predictive/Forecasting Model will likely churn a precise target level.


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis/Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


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David Alcindor
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NOTE: Prior $AUDUSD Dead-On Hit:
$AUDCAD: Target Hit; Abysmal Target Next | $AUD $CAD #forex
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
21 APR 2015 - ADDENDUM: Chart at time of release:


snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
emre PRO
2 years ago
David, what was the reason that you did not call the 4/15 touch of the 1-3 line for point 5?
Also, from the lesson thread I recall your suggestion for the entry point as the next bar once it closes above the one which marks point 5. Do you strictly adhere to that?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO emre
2 years ago
Hello @emre:

1 - I am not sure what you are asking about. What is 4/15 referring to? Date? Chart? Chart on that particular date? Feel free to right click any chart, then chose "Copy Link Location" under the dropdown menu, then post it here as any other chart. That might help me see what you are referring to, in case this is referring to a chart.

2 - There are several entry strategies I have recommended, depending on the risk tolerance of the trader. It also depends on whether a 5-prime has been carved out.

In the case, as in here, where only a Point-5 is defined and the CONSERVATIVE trader is unsure whether price would likely go further down to define a 5-prime point, then such trader type should wait until price rallies, crosses and closes above the level of Point-3. The AGGRESSIVE trader, albeit prudent, would consider a partial entry. The REAL-AGGRESSIVE species will simply take a full position right at Point-5.

In the cases where price reaches further down to define a 5-prime point, the REAL-AGGRESSIVE trader will have to wait in the red, the AGGRESSIVE one should wait until price returns, crosses and closes above the 1-3 Line, whereas the CONSERVATIVE one can come back at the table with his new marbles and start the trade at the crossing and closing above the 1-3 Line.

Is this making sense?


David
+1 Reply
emre PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Sorry for not being clear, I referred to the date with 4/15. On 4/15 price visited the 1-3 line which could technically be defined as point 5. In fact it bounced from there and closed above point 3. I am wondering why you did not call that point as 5

snapshot


Thanks for the detailed explanation about the entry points.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO emre
2 years ago
@emre - Got it.

I am not sure what the reasoning was, but 9 out of 10, I am following a Predictive/Forecasting Model target, whereas the geometric patterns I use are "background" overlays. While I cannot share the "innards" of the Model, I make sure that traders see that simple geometry can approximate what the Model defines on its own.

If I had to rely only on that geometry, I would have certainly entered the position at that Point-5 (I count myself as a "prudent aggressive" trader, so a partial position would have been ordered at that "fake" Point-5 position, whereas a second partial entry would be waiting at the candle-top which preceded that elusive Point-5, with a SL at 1.131 ... up to 1.414 of the 3-4 Leg height (depending on what this would mean in terms of exposure numbers).

Now, I also would have missed the reiteration in the price undulation. If you look at the price movement from 2-to-3-to-4 and draw it in your mind, you might possibly see a reiteration of that exact same movement from 4-to-fake5-to-5.

An independent way to ascertain that a level might be reached would be to set your Fibonacci scale, such that a survey of levels below point-3 could help define a probable level of reversal.

In this case, a simple 1.618 x 1-2 Leg would reveal that level quite clearly, and not just by mere hindsight. It is actually a conspicuous level. One I would be most aggressive at acting upon is the 1.414 level for the simple reason that if a reversal occurs at that level, it would mean that an aggressive counter-trend is about to take place.

Here is how the chart looks like with the revealed level:


snapshot



Is this coming together?


David
+2 Reply
emre PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Yes, it certainly does, thanks a lot for your time.
Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
21 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$AUDCAD jumped from forecast level; #fibonacci reveals similar reversal ground as predictive model's:

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$AUD $CAD
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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Watch for a significant pull-back as price is very likely to brush its tracks back, down to 0.786-Fib of its current advance.

David
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
28 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$AUDCAD still rising from 0.9453 as forecast; Eyeing 0.96248 at minimum or 1-4 Line as target:

snapshot


$AUD $CAD #RBA #BOC
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
28 APR 2015 - Update:

Predictive/Forecasting Model churns out these two qualitative targets (i.e.: Low probability attainment, high-probability reversal);

1 - TG-Hi = 0.97175 - 28 APR 2015

and

2 - TG-Hix = 0.97952 - 28 APR 2015


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
28 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$AUDCAD: Expect temporizing resistance at Geo Anchor level; Bullish targets still in force:

snapshot


$AUD $CAD #RBA #BOC
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
04 MAY 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$AUDCAD may be signaling an imminent point of departure towards forecast targets:

snapshot


$AUD $CAD $USD #RBA #BOC #forex
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
08 MAY 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$AUDCAD remains bound to 0.97175 forecast; Bulls remain in charge:

snapshot


$AUD $CAD $USD #RBA #BOC #aussie #loonie #forex
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David Alcindor
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
13 MAY 2015 - Update:

Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$AUDCAD hit target at 0.97175; New bar eyes lower-prob. 0.97952 target; Bullish:

snapshot


$AUD $CAD $USD #RBA #BOC #forex
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David Alcindor

=================

Tech-Note:

This was one long trade to the TG-Hi. However, remember that based on the "Off-Set Rule", the geometric overlay demands validation of the 1-4 Line.

In the foreground of this is the Predictive/Forecasting Model, which is now remains unanswered by one target at TG-Hix.

I hope you enjoyed this trade from its inception (green square in the field).

Best,


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
HamedAghajani PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Thank you David, I have benefited from this idea, throughout. Kind regards, Hamed.
+1 Reply
takefal 4xForecaster
2 years ago
snapshot


David, I think correctly for the creation of point 4; in general, it is correct the set up of lines 1-3 and 2-4; Thank you for your anticipated commentary.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO takefal
2 years ago
Hello, @takefal,

There are several things to consider in this nascent Geo.

First, the VISUAL placement of Geo-Anchor. Typically, when one looks back at the Geo-Anchor and imagine to have had the opportunity to place it early as price was still developing, it tends to become obvious that very few choices arise, which is good, since we want to deal with as little a number of choice, so as not to be too confused.

In this case, I can see only one choice, and it is simply directed by the number of validations (see the two pink arrows in the chart, where a lower placement of the SPECULATIVE 1-4 Line offers this "best choice", again simply on the basis of maximal number of validation points. Although this may change in the course of the Geo development, so far, this is all that we have at our disposition, and therefore, this is what we have to consider.

Second, the placement of Point-4. As I have noted before, there can typically be one or two "pseudo-Point-4" positions, simply because the complexity of the 2-3 Leg will tend to have us consider a structure low/high as that pace from which a 3-4 Leg completed, when in fact, the 2-3 Leg is still under development. In my experience, the first opportunity to define a Point-4 often is the fake residence level (see as a RED asterix in the chart).


snapshot



This means that at this moment, one should be guarded against the temptation to define a final resting point for Point-4 (hence left as an exclamation mark in GREEN in the chart).

Your chart outlines the gist of how to prepare for a Geo, using the 1-2 Leg symmetrical ab = cd, and cautiously testing the loose 1-4 Line as we are still trying to anchor it across that wobbly geometric divide.

Nice pick up on it. I have added below a small refinement of your proposed outline, based on the points discussed. In the background remains a larger Geo, whereas the Predictive/Forecasting Model remains in force and intact, awaiting further validation of its last target. In the context of your chart, it all looks like it is falling in line, promisingly.

Fridays are typically times when markets are torqued and disrupted in such a manner as to stretch the elastic and release it at market's open on Sunday afternoon, so again, this all falls in line.

Have a fantastic weekend, and thank you for contributing to this thread.

Best,


David Alcindor
Reply
takefal 4xForecaster
2 years ago
David, Thank you for your detailed placement. I'll wait for the opening of markets to see the evolution of this geometry and especially the ending of point 4. Good weekends !!!
+1 Reply
ccake28 4xForecaster
a year ago
Hi David. Any further update on these pairs? Thanks
Reply
ccake28 4xForecaster
a year ago
Hi David. Any further update on AUDCAD? Thank you
Reply
iefan PRO
2 years ago
11 July 2015

$AUDCAD

Hi David. Would you please review my chart. Also are is there a way of determining which has a higher probability, a decline to Geo Point 5' or a rally from this point to the 1 - 4 Line? As always thank you for you time.

Best

Iefan
snapshot
+1 Reply
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