Upside seems limited. Sell the retest?
I trade AUD and CAD as individual crosses against EUR or USD, not really as a direct AUDCAD pair. One of my friends, Gary (from Canada) called my attention to this early setup, so let's check it and build a strategy.
- in last two weeks price broke Kijun, bullish trendline, 100wma and Kumo.
- Reaction followed back into the Kumo cloud, so the bearish breakout not yet confirmed. Ichimoku is back to neutral, but price is still below Kijun Sen and forward Kumo has a bearish bias!
- Heikin-Ashi signal is bullish. WATCH price action at Kijun Sen and broken trendline! If momentum starts to drop in the 1,0080 - 1,0140 zone, next sell signal will have to be taken.
- EWO is bearish.
- MACD signal line (orange) has just dipped into bearish zone.
What can drive this trade fundamentally?
From CAD side:
1. Oil - OPEC decision on Wednesday. Lot of people think of CAD as a "WTI proxy", but in fact energy sector represents only appr. 10 % of Canadian GDP.
2. USA economic growth may help the neighbour country's GDP as well. Actually because of US fiscal stimulus, Canada can be a laughing external winner in next few years. US efforts will probably effect Canada's GDP too.
From AUD side:
- JPY and CNY devaluation -> may lead to full blown Asian currency devaluation race
- China economic bubble and trouble can effect negatively Australia too.
The world has two poles now: USA and China. Which one do you think is in a better position to win trade war in coming years, means also which ccy block would youn like to belong to?
On relative valuation I'd rather take and AUDCAD short position, than enterring an USDCNY or USDJPY long at these levels.
- in last two weeks price broke Kijun, bullish trendline, 100wma and Kumo.
- Reaction followed back into the Kumo cloud, so the bearish breakout not yet confirmed. Ichimoku is back to neutral, but price is still below Kijun Sen and forward Kumo has a bearish bias!
- Heikin-Ashi signal is bullish. WATCH price action at Kijun Sen and broken trendline! If momentum starts to drop in the 1,0080 - 1,0140 zone, next sell signal will have to be taken.
- EWO is bearish.
- MACD signal line (orange) has just dipped into bearish zone.
What can drive this trade fundamentally?
From CAD side:
1. Oil - OPEC decision on Wednesday. Lot of people think of CAD as a "WTI proxy", but in fact energy sector represents only appr. 10 % of Canadian GDP.
2. USA economic growth may help the neighbour country's GDP as well. Actually because of US fiscal stimulus, Canada can be a laughing external winner in next few years. US efforts will probably effect Canada's GDP too.
From AUD side:
- JPY and CNY devaluation -> may lead to full blown Asian currency devaluation race
- China economic bubble and trouble can effect negatively Australia too.
The world has two poles now: USA and China. Which one do you think is in a better position to win trade war in coming years, means also which ccy block would youn like to belong to?
On relative valuation I'd rather take and AUDCAD short position, than enterring an USDCNY or USDJPY long at these levels.