FX:AUDCHF   Australian Dollar/Swiss Franc
Watch for a potential rally off of 0.68893.

Following are speculative forecast (i.e.: If model was forced to commit to bullish outlook), yielding the following targets:

NUMERICAL TARGETS:

1 - TG-1 - 0.75064 - 22 JAN 2015

and

2 - TG-2 - 0.77643 - 22 JAN 2015


NOMINAL TARGETS:

1 - TG-Hi = 0.79946 - 22 JAN 2015

and

2 - TG-Hix = 0.81815 - 22 JAN 2015


OVERALL:

The recent bearish swing completed a bearish impulse, finalized at Point-5 as a nadir. The following development has drawn a time-consumptive correction which is likely to remain at or above the forecast 0.68893 forecast, thus defining a fronted entry (i.e.: respective of spreads) above this level.

A break below Point-5 would abort this trade.

The methodology applied here represents an old strategy I had called EAGLE, which offers a VERY LOW risk versus a HIGH REWARD potential.

As defined therein, the RR = 21:1

Please, note that I already enter a LONG position @ 0.69382

Cheers,

David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


-----
Twitter: @4xForecaster
-----
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
NOTE, Re: EAGLE

As explained before, EAGLE is an acronym that defines the strategy as an (E)xtremely (AG)gressive (L)evel of (E)ntry. In this case, I used to use the 0.786 to 0.886 retracement levels as general gauges. However, in this particular exercise, 0.68893 is defined via an internal model (lower timeframe), this defining a much lower value than what would be obtained using the simple Fibonacci retracement levels of 0.786 and 0.886.

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
Hi David. Why did you prefer AUD Over NZD? Thanks, Hamed
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO HamedAghajani
2 years ago
Hello @HamedAghajani,

The strength differential between $AUDUSD, $NZDUSD and $AUDNZD favors a NET buoyancy in $AUD.

Also, the $USDCHF chart remains BULLISH at the institutional frame level, despite the recent decline.

Therefore, the $AUDCHF comes out as the favored pair in this majors' mix.

David
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO HamedAghajani
2 years ago
@HamedAghajani ,

Here are the charts with their respective forecast targets:

$AUDNZD
snapshot





$AUDUSD:
snapshot



$NZDUSD:
snapshot



Also, not yet posted, but here it is for the sake of this discussion, is the $USDCHF chart with preliminary targets I defined yesterday:

$USDCHF:
snapshot



OVERALL, the charts are reflecting a predictive/forecasting model expectation where $CHF would weaken, whereas the $AUD would strengthen. The net favorite would pit the bullish $AUD against the bearish $CHF.

Please, be careful about the $USDCHF chart, as it remains unpublished and unshared as the predictive/forecasting model remains uncommitted for now.


David
+3 Reply
HamedAghajani PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Thanks David. One little concern, is on the low (point 5) in the chart. The low of that candle on my broker is 0.5976 (different from what TV is showing). I can email you a snapshot of that chart which I have. Kind regards, Hamed.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO HamedAghajani
2 years ago
@HamedAghajani :

Yes, I have different values across different accounts. However, my predictive model depends on non-price values, so the precision in price is not as important for the model, and once the model expresses a direction and a target, I simply find its correlation in the price chart.

Oanda, FXCM and any other trading house may receive data that may or may not reflect the actual interbank value. This is how and where they carve out their own little spreads and post difference in price. Still, this won't affect what I expect out of the predictive/forecasting model.

David
+2 Reply
22 JAN 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------
$AUDCHF offers a potential Bullish WW pattern within the prescribed boundaries:

snapshot


@tradingview $AUD $CHF $USD #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
dojitrader
2 years ago
Just curious, unless I missed it somewhere,
why you placed the stops about 17 pips above
the 5th wave low ?
Wishing you a great 2015 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO dojitrader
2 years ago
Hello @dojitrader - I entered this long in a separate account. However, I decided to reverse the forecast towards the bottom. The model defined 0.68893 as the lowest most support.

As price moved about in meandering ways, it weaved a pattern reminiscent of the WW, with its point-5 laying right along the 1-3 Line. Hence, the placement of WW's Point-5 came only afterwards and stands independent of the model's own lowest tolerable value.

Now, to be a bit precise here, Point-5 does NOT stand below the TradingView trading field (green/red range) until eight incremental spaces from now.

This means that 4-hour bars x 8 = 32 hours would need to elapse before price would effectively fall at or near-below the 0.68893 level, whereas the Stop-Loss which is the bottom most part of the green/red range does not even get hit until much later.

So, in sum, Point-5 remains within the strategic construct of the SL/TP range, as it stands.

David
+1 Reply
22 JAN 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------
$AUDCHF recoils as forecast toward 0.68893 support; Remains bullish:

snapshot


via @tradingview $AUD $CHF #SNB $USD #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
23 JAN 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------
$AUDCHF reversed to 0.68893 target as forecast; Rallied and now eyeing break-out:

snapshot


@tradingview $AUD $CHF #SNB #RBA
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
26 JAN 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------
$AUDCHF hit 0.68893 entry; Eyes Pt = 0.70724; Nice 21:1 Reward/Risk Ratio:

snapshot


@tradingview $AUD $CHF #forex #SNB #RBA
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
HamedAghajani PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hi David. For some reason I missed the definition of your color code on solid black line and dotted below lines. would you please cite the page you introduced them.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO HamedAghajani
2 years ago
Hello @HamedAghajani - I am not sure I understand what you are requesting. The only "solid black" lines in the chart are the price bars. Also, I am not sure I understand what you mean by "dotted below lines".

- The solid black lines are numbered in reference to their basic Elliott Wave count sequence
- The green number is the live trade entry
- The red/green range is TradingView's active trade monitor - Red is the range from entry to SL; green is range from entry to TP - RR here is 21.11
- The colored targets are
-- Yellow: Moderate probability of hit - Typically on numerical targets, defining a future pivot or R/S level
-- Red: Low probability of hit - Typically on nominal targets, defining a significant top and reversal
-- Purple: Very low probability of hit - The extreme-most level if Red target fails - Highest reversibility potential

Hope this is what you were looking for.

David Alcindor
Reply
26 JAN 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------
$AUDCHF testing 0.70724 for probable impulsive break-away:

snapshot


via @tradingview | $AUD $CHF #RBA #SNB #franc #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
26 JAN 2015 - Update:

Bulls are testing new heights: Level of Point-4 cede to bovines. Impulse should occur IF and ONCE level of Point-2 breaks down:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
26 JAN 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------
$AUDCHF - Watch for 0.71615 - Significant adverse excursion could occur from here:

snapshot


@tradingview $AUD $CHF #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
27 JAN 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------
$AUDCHF: Watch for a potential pull back off of WW's TP Line:

snapshot


via @tradingview | $AUD $CHF #RBA #SNB #forex $USD
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
27 JAN 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------
$AUDCHF stabbed thru 0.72486 directional signal; Interim retrace expected; Remains bullish:

snapshot


@tradingview $AUD $CHF
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
HamedAghajani PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Thanks for live update, David!
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
TECH-NOTE:

Look for a retrace in the order of 0.786-Fib using the height of this most recent bullish upswing. However, such retrace is not obligatory, but probable.

In structural analysis, the recent transgression that occurred at the level of Point-2 suggests that the bulls are willing to test loftier pasture. However, this is never done in a straight forward fashion. Instead, a break of Point-2 will tend to cause traders to nudge their SL closer to the recent price action, thus serving the institutional and veteran traders with the real opportunity to absorb these positions.

While the market, once in a bullish stance and readying to push price higher, might provide the junior trader with a real promise of ascent, the small adverse excursion sweeping that may occur prior to a promising rallying will often separate the eager trader from the meager trader.

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
27 JAN 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------
$AUDCHF could find support at this trendline; Bulls remains in charge:

snapshot


via @tradingview | $AUD $CHF #forex $USD
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
27 JAN 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------
$AUDCHF: If interested 1) as to why price stopped where it did in DAILY 2) and in L/T outlook ... :

snapshot


@tradingview
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor

==================


TECH-NOTE:

Yes, indeed, this is a MUCH larger timeframe, with a trading commitment that is rarely worth it. However, the point here is to put into structural context the reason why price stopped at the level that it did in the 4-Hour chart I just posted. Situational awareness is everything, and relies sometimes on much larger geometric components, such as the underbelly of this WEEKLY Wolfe Wave, which initiated the rallying of its price ONCE the 2-4 Line copy off of Point-3 validated Point-5-prime.

As a minimal target, one should seek the price corresponding to this WW's Point-4 ... If you have time, that is.


Cheers,


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
28 JAN 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------
$AUDCHF - Weekly chart mulls reversal to Point-4 level at the very least; Gold might rally vs $CHF...

snapshot


@tradingview
----------


snapshot



In fact, here is a XAUUSD * USDCHF chart, looking at the relative strength of the Swissy submitted to Gold in Dollar, or $XAUUSD for short:

snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
30 JAN 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------
$AUDCHF consolidates; 0.72913 structure looms as potential impulse signal:

snapshot


@tradingview $AUD $CHF #RBA #SNB #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
alex.a 4xForecaster
2 years ago
RBA rate cut is looming - will this pair perhaps, go back to where it was? at least just above 68893 level of Jan 22, or slightly below that?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO alex.a
2 years ago
Hello @alex.a - I just wrote a long-winded explanation but lost the whole text.

So, in short:

1 - There are two parts to the $AUDCHF relative strength expression:
a -- $AUDUSD: Expected to rise, wherein $AUD might benefit from a shift of monetary policies that have maxed-out in zeroing rates and tapping out QE programs
b -- $USDCHF: Expected to rise on the basis of a stabilizing $CHF following its recent adjustment as it unpegged from $EUR.

2 - I am expecting a postponement in RBA action based on too-recent a wild price swing in commodities (favoring a watchful waiting in stabilization of prices), and waiting for further data out of China.

3 - Gold might possibly benefit from a demand that is adjusting from a lack of long-term alternatives. QEs have crushed any viable returns on bonds, while monetary policies have run the system amock,

On a technical basis, $AUDCHF is carving out a two-part consolidation, one that concludes the recent bearish Elliott Wave impulse and one that appears to complete a truncation of a next-degree up 5th wave, which the Wolfe Wave pattern ("WW") has engulfed, as it served as the basis for the trade opp I posted.

David
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Note that a rise in both $AUDUSD and $USDCHF is not contradictory, as it implies a strengthening in $AUD and weakening in $CHF, the net effect would keep the $AUDCHF pair buoyant.

David
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
02 FEB 2015 - Fundies report:

"Swiss Jan. Manufacturing PMI Falls to 48.2; Est. 50.6, down from 53.6"

Well, how about that ... A decline in the $CHF might be that event forcing $AUDCHF up.

David Alcindor
Reply
alex.a 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Thank you for every reply. With my gratitude ~
+1 Reply
KingArthur
2 years ago
Hi, im new. What does TG-HI and TG-HIX mean?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO KingArthur
2 years ago
Hello @KingArthur,

TG-Hi and TG-Hix refer to high-target and extreme-high-target values - in contrast, their bearish counterparts would be described as TG-Lo and TG-Lox. These targets are distinct from TG-1, TG-2, ... etc by referring to outer most values that have a lower probability of attainment, but a high-probability of reversal.

In contrast, TG-1, TG-2, ,,, etc, which are referred to as numerical targets, have a high-probability of attainment, but a low-probability of reversibility.

TG-Hi/Lo and TG-Hix/Lox are called nominal targets, representing that forecast level which would cause a taut value in RSI, and in terms of price action, would correspond to a stretched-out reach, so much so that price would not just retrace (i.e.: return in the Fibonaccci order of 0.382 to 0.618), but reverse (i.e.: in the Fibonacci order 0.618 and above).

Looking at numerical targets, you will probably see that they will tend to define future R/S values if price attains levels it never reached before, or simply confirm or line up with prior R/S (resistance-above or support-below) levels. Looking at nominal targets, they project the value at which price would reverse IF and once it ever reached these targets.

I have kept these targets in color, for a quick glance at what price does in relation to these levels. So, most of the numerical targets would be green (very-high prop) or yellow (high-prob)m as opposed to the nominal targets, which range from RED (low prob.) to PURPLE and in rarest cases BLUE, representing an ever decreasing level of probability of attainment.

Most the Forex pairs will see a significant retracement/reversal at the RED, whereas IF and once purple is attained, a reversal because highly probable.

The important concept here is to correlate the numerical/nominal targets with how aggressive the market is pushing price to a "terminal velocity", which in this case would correspond to BLUE - Again, a value I almost rarely post, although this year is becoming an exception to the rule, suggesting that at the H4 level, values that would otherwise not be attained before are now getting hit.

You will see that most of the predictive analysis and forecasting (which is a probability game in a way) is defined using the 4-hour chart. I consider this timeframe a synthetic market of retail and institutional level of activities blended together within one time scale.

The lower time scale I like to consult for calibrating (or fine tuning) the forecasts is at the M15, which is almost entirely made up of small accounts of players (presumptively: retailers), as opposed to the daily timeframe, which is one I use for a "bird's eye view", representing better financed accounts (presumptively: institutional).

So, based on this dichotomy, I lay the chart timeframe "in-between".

IF price surpasses the TG-Hix/Lox, then a higher timeframe has come to interfere with the forecast, which is what you would expect to see on a rate-changing day when a central bank actuates a change. In such a case, i would temporarily consult the larger timeframe, re-apply the predictive/forecasting model at the DAILY or WEEKLY level, and bring that new forecast value back at the H4 level, since most of the action at the DAILY causes an adjustment at the H4 level (the bank speak at the daily level, and then traders adjust to the new standard at the synthetic H4 level).

Another acronym I use is BACA - Buboo Bains in his Giraffe Room on Facebook came up with this expression, which I have carried over here, but do want to grant him credit for it. BACA stands for Breaking-Above + Crossing-Above: This is the price action you define relative to a certain value, allowing to define a price commitment within one direction.

Say that price has carved a double-bottom. It then rises and returns back at that value. If a triple-bottom occurs, then that would be a confirmation of a triple bottom.

However, that bottom is defined along a line which IF crossed, would simply negate the existence of a triple bottom. But most importantly, it would convert that level from a support (at double-bottom) to a resistance, as price is very often likely to revisit that level from the downside.

Question is: When do you take the trade?

Answer is to take the trade only once market is pronouncing a commitment to the other side. A premature action would be to enter at the moment price is crossing that level. But a fake-out could occur and price could still rebound.

So what is one to do? Simply wait for that candle to BACA, or break-across and closes across, and let another candle open. If that candle opens across, then enter aggressively at that moment, or enter conservatively at the open of the next candle following this committed candle.

OVERALL:

In the recent trades I have shared, these concepts have been one of the few strategies applied to maintain a very high risk to reward value, or RR (note that RR denotes risk first, but in numerical values, it has to denote reward first - in the AUDCHF, the RR is 21.11:1, as follows:

$AUDCHF-H4:
snapshot

(source and analysis:
EAGLE Trade potential
)

In the $GBPJPY, the RR is 30.61:1 - Which is about to complete, although the REAL target is much lower, as posted before, at around 171.xx:

$GBPJPY:
snapshot

(Source and analysis:
EAGLE Strat: Short Opp | $GBP $JPY #BOE #BOJ #forex
)

There will be exception to the rule as well. For instance, some indices will be dealt at higher timeframe, such as the $USDollar chart, which is shown at the WEEKLY level, but the predictive/forecasting model had to "fetch" a "terminal velocity" at the monthly level, thus defining 11,870 as the likely level of significant resistance:

$USDollar:
snapshot

If you read the analysis, it will appear as if I was chasing that value upwards, as it were. Turns out that interference at H4 will prompt me to look at daily levels, but in this case, the interference called for a next-level up at the MONTHLY level (not that many of the adjustments call for an adjustment based on a factor of four: one hour frame to the M15, 4-hour frame to the M60, or here Monthly to the weekly).


Other concepts I have applied but in rarer occasions are momental lines (not quite based on channels, but put together help define a channel). These momental lines represent a basal rate towards which price will tend back after an interim acceleration in price. They happen to maintain a same slope across M15, H1, H4, daily weekly or monthly charts - Feel free to Google Momental + line + 4xforecaster + 4xquad for some examples:

Here is one at the top of the query in a Bitcoin chart:
-
Momental Channels Interplay | #BTCUSD #LTCBTC #bitcoin #litecoin


There are other, more obscure concept in occult market geometries in which I use proprietary patterns, as well as concepts such as node, nodules and modules. Point here is that one you step into the little rabbit hole, a whole world of numerology, geometry and mind-bending correspondences start to take place. The trick is to step out of it and draw a simple chart in its most essential form. This is the daily exercise I strive towards, something I cannot quite get enough ever since I started back in 1997 when I entered medical school.

Thank you for your inquiry. I hope this answers most of it.

Best,

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
KingArthur 4xForecaster
2 years ago
David, thank you very much for your thorough answer.
Reply
02 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------
$AUDCHF tests structure high; Would open to first target:

snapshot


via @tradingview $AUD $CHF #RBA #SNB #aussie #franc $USD
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
02 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------
$AUDCHF still in sideways, horizontalfracking; Bullish targets still in sight for RR=21:1:

snapshot


@tradingview $AUD #RBA
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
03 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------
$AUDCHF sits at structure defined by former Point-4; Eyes potential rally:

snapshot


@tradingview $AUD $CHF #RBA #SNB #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
03 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------
$AUDCHF - TripTop or Burst? Model aims for bullish targets as forecast in Jan.:

snapshot


@tradingview $AUD $CHF #RBA #franc
-----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
09 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/Linked-In:
----------
$AUDCHF creeps up along its bullish TL; Pending 0.72913 threshold; RR 21:1

snapshot


@tradingview $AUD $CHF #RBA #SNB #franc
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
12 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/Linked-In:
----------
$AUDCHF protracted sideways remains in glacier-like pace; Bullish targets intact:

snapshot


@tradingview $AUD $CHF #RBA #SNB
-----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
17 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/Linked-In:
-----------
$AUDCHF "3rd-time-a-charm" tests 0.72913; Break would open to bullish targets ... At last:

snapshot


@tradingview $AUD #RBA
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
18 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/Linked-In:
----------
$AUDCHF - Pos. Div. lets price out of consolidation, towards bullish targets:

snapshot


@tradingview $AUD $CHF #RBA #SNB
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Talk about an Eagle Trade...Great stuff David!
Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
snapshot


Possible KoD David?
Reply
23 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$AUDCHF define 0.72913 as its bullish entrenchment; Targets remain intact:

snapshot


@tradingview $AUD $CHF #RBA #SNB #franc
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+4 Reply
24 FEB 2015 - update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$AUDCHF eyes new high in this tight RR = 21:1 trade; Bulls remain in control:

snapshot


@tradingview $AUD $CHF #SNB #franc
-----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
25 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$AUDCHF remains bullish; Targets intact; Strong support at 0.72913:

snapshot


@tradingview $AUD $CHG #RBA #SNB #franc #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
ADDENDUM - Tech-Note:

I have added the 0.83395 level in the H4 chart - This level is the last attainable price achievable by bulls before a significant resistance/retracement occurs per predictive/forecasting model - David
+1 Reply
03 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$AUDCHF hit first numerical target; Still open to loftier targets:

snapshot


@tradingview $AUD $CHF #RBA #SNB #franc #forex
-----------


snapshot


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Great forecast David. In this case as TG 1 has been hit are you expecting a retracement in the order 0.382 to 0.618?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
2 years ago
Hello @iefan - Yes, typically, a 0.382 retracement would be expected. In the most aggressive markets, or following a protracted consolidation (as was the case here when price simply took all that long to move on to the first numerical target), a shallower retracement in the order of 0.214 or even 0.114 (complements of 0.786 and 0.886, respectively) may also be occurring.

The shallower retracement, the strongest implied strength of the subsequent move in terms of impulse development.

David
+3 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Thanks David for the prompt reply.....do you ever sleep :)
Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
snapshot


Hi David. A bit of a hatchet WW, however could you critique it for me please and does the positive divergence significantly reduce the probability of this move.

Thank you.

iefan
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
2 years ago
Hello @iefan,

The PD only signals that price will reach for higher highs, but this it already did so, and the 5' position defined by the recent pullback marks that achievement. Now, could it reach to a higher level from 5-' moving along the 3-5' line? Yes, this can definitely occur, but this redundant rallying can be dangerous to enter.

Instead, I would prepare a 5" line off of Pt-1, and see where that parallel shouts for.

One thing I would correct in the chart would simply be a perfect alignment of the 1-3 Line, with an anchor at Pt-3. Personally, I like to use the extension of the line, so that the beginning and end of that line rests at pts 1 and 2, and the xtension option projects forward, affarding as precise a 1-3 Line into the future as possible. I do not always apply the extension option on the 2-4 Line, simply because this carries a lesser relevance in the projection.

I would also make sure that the 3-5' line is also anchored on Pts 3 and 5, with the same projection forward - by anchor, I mean that the magnet option is used.

Finally, simply because I am 100% visually dependent, I would change the texture of the 3-5' Line (I typically use dashes) and contrast it with that of the 1-4 TP Line (here I use a large grain with dots).

Once i have all the lines defines as above, I can easily make abstraction of the pattern and intuitively look for other subtleties.

Now, one last aspect of the pattern is its placement relative to the recent impulse, where the pattern's Pt-1 represents Point-3 of an Elliott Wave, and Pt-3 of the WW likely represents Point-5 of the WW impulse termination. When this overlap occurs, look for an EW's Ending Diagonal asserting itself at the current Pt-3 of WW (which could represent Pt-1 of an EW ED), and Pt-5 of WW (which could represent Pt-3 of EW ED).

One way to clear things up a bit would be to look for Fibonacci extensions from your current Pts 1 and 2, by projection the 1.414 and the 1.618 levels. These levels are tightly associated with Pt 5 as a termination of the overall EW impulse (remember here is that Pt1 and Pt2 of your WW would represent point-3 and point-4 of the EW pattern.

Looking good.

David
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
2 years ago
(similarly, look for USDMXN completing a WW at pt-5. I would expect a bit of trasngression off of pt 5, but the 1-4 Line (and not just level of pt-4) make for a got TP target)

Just saying.

I'll let you chart that one, just for exercise of it, see if you get it.

David
+2 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
snapshot


Thank you for all the tips David, going to work on my charting some more in the next couple of days....I was so busy with this chart I neglected to take a short position :).....anyway going to do some more work on it later but this is for starters.....am I close?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
2 years ago
Yep, this is quite perfect - David

Now, entry order right at point-5 ... A retest is not excluded, although I would not count of it, but a fall from point-5 is sometimes accompanied by a return to about 50% of the fall from point-5, so, always worth letting an order there with a SL slightly above point-5 - I do not like to offer SL recommendation, but here is one exception, as this pattern can be quite stable.

David

+3 Reply
24 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$AUDCHF mulls further advance; Rests on R/S for now; Bullish targets remain intact:

snapshot


@tradingview $AUD $CHF #franc
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
15 APR 2015 - Update - TECH-NOTE:

As price remains bullish, a background geometry is likely to provide a support at its Point-5, prior to further advance towards next numerical/quantitative target:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
28 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$AUDCHF still eyeing 0.79946 with RR = 21:1. Yes, with this trade, I have seen a glacier move:

snapshot


$AUD $CHF #RBA #SNB
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
emre PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
David, where do you see this going after the latest move? The inner geometry landed on the 1-4 line perfectly
snapshot


However this move broke the outer geometry's 2-4 line significantly. Would you still consider the outer one a valid geometry after this move?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO emre
2 years ago
Hello @emre - There is no change in any of the targets defined last January.

0.72728 is a solid floor, but not one, if breached, would change the forecast. Forecast remains bullish:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+4 Reply
29 MAY 2015 - Update:

Longest trade, glacier-paced ever ... Geo traders, you know what to do:


snapshot



Have a fantastic week-end!


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
On daily it seems crystal clear
AUDCHF : Wolve Wave Pattern
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Realisto_FX
2 years ago
Bingo!
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Target = 0.71474 ...

i.e.: Predictive Model remains unanswered til 0.71474.


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Realisto_FX
2 years ago
@jpocalles What you have posted is also internal to a larger one. I was following a slightly larger one, with a Predictve/Forecasting target resting at 0.71474.

Are you seeing the larger one, which would coincide with the one you have posted?

... Looking back at the discussion thread, @emre posted the one I am referring to.


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
Realisto_FX PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Yep , thanks for the insight
Reply
04 JUN 2015 - Update/Tech-Note:

It appears that the Predictive Model is over-riding the background geometries, as it is heading towards its 0.71474 target, as mentioned a few days ago.

- Keep an eye on that level.


David
+2 Reply
ccake28 4xForecaster
a year ago
Hi David. Please update if you have time. Thanks:)
Reply
Ideas Scripts Chart
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
Italia
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Billing Sign Out