4xForecaster
Short

Trade Opp @ 1.96260 | $GBP $AUD #BE #RBA #forex

FX:GBPAUD   British Pound/Australian Dollar
1525 37 17
Trade Profile:

SL = 1.96640

Entry = 1.96260

Target = 1.81668

Alternate (Conservative) entry = 1.94988


RR = 38.5 to 1


OVERALL:

- Low risk, low exposure. Conservative entry should consider a lower SL (recommending 0.886 of prior swing).
- Trade invalidates at SL; Would reconsider re-entry at conservative level if resumes in that direction and model remains bearish .

Stay tuned,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


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Twitter:
@4xForecaster

Linked-In:
David Alcindor
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Check out recent similar Trade Opps:
- $AUDCHF:
EAGLE Trade potential

- $GBPJPY:
EAGLE Strat: Short Opp | $GBP $JPY #BOE #BOJ #forex


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David
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: MarketPredictiveAnalysis@gmail.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
HI david
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO manijeh.kazemi.33
+1 Reply
Hello David, I have made short entry @ 1.96133.
Reply
08 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$GBPAUD: Short activated @1.9626; revrsd at SL, Watch 1.96569 as tolerable advrs excrsn:

snapshot


@tradingview $GBP $AUD
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
09 FEB 2015 - Update:

Trade moves positive after two near-hit of SL (red arrows):

snapshot



David Alcindor
+4 Reply
09 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/Linked-In:
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$GBPAUD crossed cons. entry; Nears next structural low @ 1.94426: RR 38:1

snapshot


@tradingview $GBP $AUD #BOE #RBA #forex
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
kmk.msp 4xForecaster
Hi David, Why your target is 1.81688 TG-Lo
+1 Reply
Hello @kmk.msp - That is the value that came out of the predictive/forecasting model - David
Reply
kmk.msp 4xForecaster
thanKS
Reply
Recluse82 4xForecaster
hi david, is this some kind of algorithm?
+1 Reply
Yes, a simple algo system that does not use price - David
Reply
kmk.msp 4xForecaster
Can you refer any literature david about this algo system
+1 Reply
There are no such reference to speak or or to point to. This predictive model is something I have put together using my own back-testing and research. It is not an indicator, not a pattern, and not based on price action - David
Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
Still, the analyses/forecasts I offer will use patterns, price and indicators which are standard and familiar to most, so that it remains pertinent to the technical analyst who can at least relate to that part of the analysis. If the model calls for a reversal at a specific level and defines a target at another, I will demonstrate in my analysis how Fibonacci, patterns, trendlines, or any technical tool or indicator could also reveal that level - In my experience, I have not come across any indicator or technical tool that comes close to what the model does, but I can certainly use the approximation of technical tools to illustrate how coincidental a standard analysis can be to the prediction.

David
Reply
Recluse82 4xForecaster
i have also some kind of programme, but only for long term
+1 Reply
Just like medications, the best tool one can ever use is whatever worked best last - If it worked best for you than anything else available, then you have the best available tool - David
Reply
09 FEB 2015 - Update:

This discreet event (purple arrow) is all you need to know to receive a directional signal of intention. From here, price might be retracing at a stop-loss hunting Fibonacci in the order of 0.500, 0.786 or even 0.886 (VERY likely), or merely a shallow retracement in the order of 0.382 to 0.500 (low prob.), but the underlying theme here is that of transgression - Price has broken through a very significant, defining level, testing the market whether much bullish resistance would exist at that level.

Overall this is a good indication that, on a structural basis, price is carving lower lows and lower highs without much resistance - No, prepare for a SL hunting frenzy as the next probable consolidation, time-consumptive feature (comparable to 2nd Wave development in Elliott Wave features. A revisiting of this level following a ZZ retracement might be accompanied by a forceful bearish impulse - The total Wave-1/Wave-2 is a consolidation whose geometry marks the radical (i.e.: root) development of the EAGLE strategy (i.e.: "E"xtrememly "AG"gressive "L"evel of "E"ntry). It also seeds the geometric root of the Euclidean Module, whereby the height of the upcoming Wave-2 retracement (in comparable EW terms) will help project the extent of a forceful price action (impulse, in EW terms) and thus offer a geometry-based forecast ... Let's first see whether this Geometric Seed occurs. It would fail if price rallied to a new structural high, exceeding the top-most reaches defined in the chart.

David Alcindor


snapshot
+2 Reply
11 FEB 2015 - Update:


* * * TRADE CLOSED * * *


Watch for bearish potential as geometry completes a potential Bearish WW.


David Alcindor
Reply
manijeh.kazemi.33 4xForecaster
hello david ww?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO manijeh.kazemi.33
Wolfe Wave
+2 Reply
manijeh.kazemi.33 4xForecaster
thanks I think AB=CD at 1.97800 and reversal
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO manijeh.kazemi.33
It's always a possibility. Feel free to post the chart using the insert (i.e.: not as a link, but as an image), so that I understand what you are referring to.

David
Reply
iznogood 4xForecaster
Hi David, i'm still in on that trade.
can you showing us the ww completion on that chart ?
+1 Reply
Here is the WW in question:

snapshot


The trade is closed in terms of performance. However, I decided to follow the WW completion (to TP level) and entered at level shown.

NOTE: The pattern is a Bullish WW, not bearish as written a few minutes ago. The bearish part of the pattern occurs once it goes in full cycle, completing at the TP Line (i..e: 1-4 Line).


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
iznogood 4xForecaster
i'm out of short.
-23pip
Thanks David for the ww.
+1 Reply
thedon80 4xForecaster
Hi David,

So you have added an additional short at 1.96840 where have you placed sop loss please?
+1 Reply
Hello @thedon80 - Yes, I added a short based on the on-going development of the WW, something that I did not anticipate. For this reason, the original trade profile is void.

Stop-loss is placed at top of recent bullish swing.

Now, watch for this alternate WW ("AWW" - in purple):

snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
A safe SL placement would be at 1.618 of Wave-4's height:


snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
Here is where you should consider SL (see purple arrow) IF and only IF your account allows - Here, we are dealing with a 5-minute chart, so I have to assume that this is in everyone's reach.

snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
thedon80 4xForecaster
Thanks David, seems to be making higher highs as we speak, hopeful for a turn around soon
+1 Reply
@thedon80 - Yes, it's way way gone.

David
Reply
What you think about that David?
snapshot
+1 Reply
11 FEB 2015 - Update: Here is why the Cypher pattern is not valid, if considering its purest form:

From Twitter/Linked-In:
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$GBPAUD: In its purest form, Darren Oglesbee's Cypher pattern is invalid at Point-B:

snapshot


@tradingview $GBP $AUD #forex
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
iznogood 4xForecaster
Thanks David...;)
+1 Reply
@iznogood - do you see why the Cypher is not quite valid?

There are other patterns though, which might take price down from there. Bulls might resist a bit, though.

David
+1 Reply
iznogood 4xForecaster
Yeap David, B leg exceeds 0.618.
What about the ww? it's my first try!!!
+1 Reply
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