Downsize risk for short medium term:
- AUD weakens further due to virus fears
- AUD heavily dependent on China economy further slowdown would weaken AUD even more.
- Trader sentiment is still short
- Markets start falling again would push more into save heaven CHF.
However it seems that the recent weakening AUD was a bit of an overreaction. And even with additional rate cuts the carry against CHF will still remain positive. It is a very similar set-up like the NZDCHF.
I do think a further escalation of the Corona-virus is already priced in and there is room for an exhaustion.
Further more Swiss banks are considering to pass on the negative interest on further saving accounts.
If and how much that will impact the trust in CHF, I don't know. Would be nice to hear your thoughts on that matter?...
I started with an initial first position long at 0.633 already (unfortunately too early). I will remain on the lookout for further opportunities at around 61.7 to increase my long position. Time Frame: A few weeks
- AUD weakens further due to virus fears
- AUD heavily dependent on China economy further slowdown would weaken AUD even more.
- Trader sentiment is still short
- Markets start falling again would push more into save heaven CHF.
However it seems that the recent weakening AUD was a bit of an overreaction. And even with additional rate cuts the carry against CHF will still remain positive. It is a very similar set-up like the NZDCHF.
I do think a further escalation of the Corona-virus is already priced in and there is room for an exhaustion.
Further more Swiss banks are considering to pass on the negative interest on further saving accounts.
If and how much that will impact the trust in CHF, I don't know. Would be nice to hear your thoughts on that matter?...
I started with an initial first position long at 0.633 already (unfortunately too early). I will remain on the lookout for further opportunities at around 61.7 to increase my long position. Time Frame: A few weeks