Powerful medium trend continuation setup on AUDCHF

We like to take a contrarian view on retail trader market sentiment, with most retail traders selling on this pair we are looking to buy from this area. Going long at this area is very plausible because the medium trend is up. Furthermore, because this is a medium trend setup we do not expect AUD to be completely stronger than CHF in time frames over the daily (Which it is not). Because AUD is stronger than CHF on time frames below daily, we expect a rejection, but not to make a new high on the 4hour.

To confirm entry into this trade we are going to look at price action(nice rejection of area) + similar rejection on AUDCHF's strongest correlated pair, AUDJPY; on approach to area we want to see structure to the left of AUDJPY's chart to show that not only is this a place sellers come in but a TIME sellers come in. A forex chart is a 2D chart it has time and price (when and where)


Things that make this trade powerful:

• Risk reward of 1:2 = we need to be right 33% of the time which is about how much a market trend and we are trend traders.
  

• Trend= We figure out the dominant trend to increase our odds since the market trends 30% of the time. Being with the trend increase odds of success by 15%
  

• Price action = a rejection of the area.
  

• Retail trader market sentiment = Taking a contrarian view on market sentiment which gives us a long bias.
  

• Currency strength divergence = Strength established
  

• Correlation = When AUDCHF reaches this area we are looking for a similar structure on AUDJPY to know the time and place too long on the chart. This is not clear on AUDJPY. We expect price to drop to atleast 50%
  

This list is not a checklist, it is merely a list of the order of importance to getting into this trade.

If you like this analysis, feel free to follow me and post your comments, tell me what you see that I may have missed that can put this trade against me.

This is my road to 1 million dollars series.