AUDCNH Bull run has a lot further to go.
I have been trying to find a way into the AUDCNH bull trend, but there has been no let up. All my predictions have been busted which has lead me to revisit the big picture.
Let's be clear here... there has been a 6.5% return from mid June to end of July. That's quick.
Using the MA chart is always difficult because you have to find the MA which best describes the trends that are being seen. On the daily chart, it's been overbought for 1 month. The chart is still above any moving average, suggesting we're well entrenched in a bull run.
How entrenched? Turning to the weekly chart, the weekly MA has only just turned! Yet the chart is still moving higher!
I have used Wave 1 to fib project wave 3. Out of all the fib levels, this seems to best describe the current trend. Based on this plus the retracement of Wave 2, and the fact that wave 3 seemingly still has some way to go from the Weekly chart, then 5.15 (fib proj 2.72) or 5.20 (fib proj 3.618 and 4.236 fib retracement) does not seem outside the realms of possibility any more.
The trick now is how to get back in the game. I think I'll be watching the hourly, 3hr charts for a way into this bull trend.
However, you get the feeling from the top down view of the weekly charts that this has a long way to play out.
Let's be clear here... there has been a 6.5% return from mid June to end of July. That's quick.
Using the MA chart is always difficult because you have to find the MA which best describes the trends that are being seen. On the daily chart, it's been overbought for 1 month. The chart is still above any moving average, suggesting we're well entrenched in a bull run.
How entrenched? Turning to the weekly chart, the weekly MA has only just turned! Yet the chart is still moving higher!
I have used Wave 1 to fib project wave 3. Out of all the fib levels, this seems to best describe the current trend. Based on this plus the retracement of Wave 2, and the fact that wave 3 seemingly still has some way to go from the Weekly chart, then 5.15 (fib proj 2.72) or 5.20 (fib proj 3.618 and 4.236 fib retracement) does not seem outside the realms of possibility any more.
The trick now is how to get back in the game. I think I'll be watching the hourly, 3hr charts for a way into this bull trend.
However, you get the feeling from the top down view of the weekly charts that this has a long way to play out.
Trade active:
I've gone long on account of stochastics crossing on 1hr, 2hr and 3hr charts at 5.065 and it's bouncing off the 1.618 green fib projection level which is proving to be a floor. 5.09 is the next key level at 2.272 of fib retracement of the previous wave 2 down around 10th August.
If that gets tested and provides a support, then continue holding to 5.14 around 19th August. Otherwise if it falls below 5.09 then take profits at 5.08.
If that gets tested and provides a support, then continue holding to 5.14 around 19th August. Otherwise if it falls below 5.09 then take profits at 5.08.
Trade closed: stop reached:
I've been stopped out of this one. Perhaps trying a bit too hard to jump on a horse that has already bolted from the stable & getting thrown off.