JohnConaway
Long

$AUDJPY completed Bullish Bat

FX:AUDJPY   Australian Dollar/Japanese Yen
5 months ago
It goes against the grain of current market rhetoric but the large Bullish Bat has hit it's lowest target (75.764) & showed a good reaction from it (as well as the other major points in the PRZ including a 161.8% ext.). RSI (14) shows bullish divergence potential here as well as this new low in price is not matched with a new low in RSI . The last 3 pivot lows are showing positive divergence in multiple indicators. We also appear to be testing the bottom of a channel or wedge (personal preference) which also supports the potential for a bounce here. Risk could be (tolerance dependent) at 75.528 while looking for at least a 38.2% retrace of pattern low (fibs on right side of chart). Bats tend to retrace hard, but this is a large pattern (this is a weekly chart) so definitely keep your expectations within those limits for timing.

In pink I have a potential Crab pattern . If we break the low & stops are hit then I would consider seeing if this is the pattern in play for gauging for possible re-entry. Best of luck! https://twitter.com/JohnConaway/status/742880218533138432
5 months ago
Comment: $AUDJPY chart
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New possible scenarios on smaller TF (H4). Still a long play, IMHO. IH&S doesn't activate (textbook) until neckline is broken w/low of potential RS as SL. Good luck out there!
5 months ago
Comment: Blue AB=CD has completed at neckline with good reaction at noted confluence. Watching for retrace or continuation here with confluence as trigger/tell. Watching to see if Pink AB=CD remains valid

$AUDJPY chart
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5 months ago
Comment: With the craziness of Brexit I wasn't able to update this. To catch up, it looks like we went to complete the Pink Crab, and so far have completed the AB=CD portion of it & are retracing from that. I don't not show full completion of it yet so I still have it on the table.

However, what I am tracking now on a H1-H2 level is a possible Bearish Bat that activates with a close above 76.883 (and open gap closure), with a risk of below 75.066. Chart below. It could provide a nice trading opportunity up & then down as Bat's 'tend' to retrace hard. The retrace might send us to full completion of the Pink Crab, but one step at a time. :)

$AUDJPY chart
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5 months ago
Comment: $AUDJPY chart
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Waiting for one of the B points to activate and or trendline. Maybe a few quick flips in between
5 months ago
Comment: Finally, may have our C point. $AUDJPY chart
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Really like the look & movement with this. Green Bat may be in charge to take us to full Crab completion below $72. Stay nimble!
4 months ago
Comment: https://twitter.com/JohnConaway/status/752452921120288768

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JohnConaway
Bearish Crab
JohnConaway about AUDJPY 1 4 months ago
JohnConaway
5 months ago
^Ideally, complete blue AB=CD, retrace to minor confluence. Complete pink AB=CD, retrace major confleunce. Then IH&S completion^
Reply
JohnConaway JohnConaway
5 months ago
The only thing I don't like about the IH&S is the deeper RS. I prefer & find better success with ones that have smaller RS than LS. The main structure is there & complimented by volume character though, so will consider it in this case with so much going on in the market.
Reply
JohnConaway
5 months ago
$AUDJPY chart
snapshot
That last chart definitely shows the importance of waiting until B point is broken (pattern active) to enter, especially on shallow retraces. Updated possibility with included lower low. It's now about a 50% retrace both ways. I'll search for other possibilities but wanted to share this update. Patience, Intermediate trend is still down.
Reply
JohnConaway
5 months ago
$AUDJPY chart
snapshot
Potential Bat in green is broken. Now looking at failing to break B point of Pink Bat & 161.8% extension. So either that break up or we're finally gonna complete that Crab
Reply
JohnConaway
5 months ago
$AUDJPY chart
snapshot
I have to be thinking long here now, eyeing 161.8 targets & confluence, then possible Bat completion in pink.
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