FX:AUDJPY   Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen
659 4 8
AUDJPY             is stuck in a short term sideways range among 95.20 key support level , and 96.50 key resistance, a breakout of this area will probably provide a new opportunity to initiate a trading position. Notice bollinger bans squeeze, hitting low volatility and a breakout seems imminent.

Most Likely scenario: Bearish Scenario:
- Main near term support at 95.20 includes the latest low, the 50-days SMA and main rising trend line
- A bearish divergence on RSI supports the bearish scenario
- A break below 95.20 would be bearish , targeting 93.70.

Bullish Scenario:
- Only a break back 96.50 would bring back the bullish bias into my attention, that would take the 50-percent Fibonacci retracement level for the overall long term bearish trend . Roughly, I would target the 61.8 retracement level at 98.15.

Note: we are still in a neutral zone, and as an event-based trader, i look for my awaiting confirmation signals which i mentioned above to initiate a trade. So far, this is not a trade or forecast.

Best of Luck
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that bear harami was screaming short at the 2'nd of july .. really obvious one if you know PA. the question is now though if it will break through down further. i could make a chart but i'd think you know what i'm talking about.
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Technician TOP supercharged_fxd0
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-1 Reply
A very nice analysis. It's very hard to tell though, which way it's going to go next. Every time it approaches the key support at 95.2, buyers crop up. I think they are likely to take it again (perhaps one last time) up to 96.1 or lower, which might then show market's bullish failure, prompting your bearish scenario.
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Technician TOP ForceFollower
Thanks, well yeah dont want to forecast, but ill be watching carefully for a good entry.
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