4xForecaster

Builds Support @1.04391; Remains L/T Bullish | $AUD $NZD #forex

FX:AUDNZD   Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar
Friends,

I initially entered this pair @ 1.03882, and closed this long position today in anticipation of the following analysis.

As announced earlier today (see dated tweet on this pair), the pair is likely to recover towards its 50% level. However, price stalled at the 38.2% Fib level, suggesting that a transient recovery in $NZD could pull the pair back towards the highlighted zone, representing a high-probability reversal bullish entrenchment, circa 1.04391.


PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS & FORECAST:

As a prior TG-1 was hit and price declined further than anticipated, the model produced a new new numerical primary target, defined as a Tg-1-prime, while the other targets remain in force, as follows:

1 - TG-1' - 1.2574 - 22 JAN 2015

2 - TG-2 = 1.15084 - 30 AUG 2014

and

3 - TG-Hi = 1.19207 - 30 AUG 2014


PATTERN ANALYSIS:

There are TWO background patterns worth considering at this point:

1 - A dominant Bullish Shark, which prompted the reactive swing to the upside that peaked yesterday

and

2 - A Bearish Wolfe Waves pattern, which rests in the shadow of that recent Shark, highlighted in BLUE. A conservative support is expected at the level corresponding to Point-4, which defines a potential support ahead of the predictive/forecast bullish entrenchment, and thus gives this area a likely rebuttal level from bulls.

This level of Point-4 is defined in the chart at 1.04646.


OVERALL:

I have kept the directional indicator under neutral for this timeframe, although a practical trade at H4 should consider this an interim BEARISH retracement.

Thank you for your readership and thumbs-up support. It helps me estimate which pair is most followed.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


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Twitter: @4xForecaster
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David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
kmk.msp
2 years ago
TG-1 should be 1.12574 instead of 1.2574
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO kmk.msp
2 years ago
Hello @kmk.msp - True, thank you for picking up this typo - David
Reply
kmk.msp 4xForecaster
2 years ago
you welcome sir
+1 Reply
23 JAN 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$AUDNZD fell off WW as forecast; Eyeing Pt-4 level; Remains bullish:

snapshot


@tradingview $AUD $NZD #RBNZ #RBA $USD #forex
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
27 JAN 2015 - Update:

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$AUDNZD mulls Pt-4 support; Chart remains NET Bullish; Lofty targets intact:

snapshot


@tradingview $AUD $NZD #forex #RBNZ
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor

====================

Friends,


Price is tediously declining from WW's Pt-5' and eyes support at a level corresponding to WW's Pt-4 - This has not changed.

Also not changes are the loftier targets. So, overall, status quo.


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
28 JAN 2015 - Update: Defining the Risks:

From Twitter:
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$AUDNZD - Risks: Still Eyeing 1.04646; Failure opens to Lo: 1.02525, Max: 1.00945:

snapshot


@tradingview $AUD $NZD #forex
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
... Sorry, the bottom of truncated ...

Here is a re-post ... From Twitter:
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$AUDNZD: Here is a better view of risk/adverse excursion w/ its extents per bearish-most targets:

-
snapshot


@tradingview
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
11 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/Linked-In:
----------
$AUDNZD bounced off forecast range; Remains Bullish unless range fails:

snapshot


@tradingview $AUD $NZD #RBA #RBNZ #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
kmk.msp 4xForecaster
2 years ago
IF it falls below 1.0464-1.0400 than whole bullish scenario will be damaged? So more likely to move towards parity or even low.
Reply
kmk.msp kmk.msp
2 years ago
AUDNZD about to complete WW Pattern
AUDNZD Long
Reply
12 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/Linked-In:
-----------
$AUDNZD extension to 1.414 or 1.618 #fibonacci possible; A return to the 50% mark is more probable:

snapshot


@tradingview
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
The test here is 1.03525 - If this cedes, then the 1.414 target because probable.

Looking at the entire move from a EW principle, then the TOP of the pattern (possible Scott Carney's Bullish Shark) would provide the geometric vehicle to 1.618, corresponding to the 5th wave termination in Elliott Wave parlance.


David
+2 Reply
24 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$AUDNZD hit 1.03023 as forecast; Breakout points to bias; TG-Lox remains probable:

snapshot


@tradingview $AUD $NZD #forex
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
25 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$AUDNZD remains bullish; Eyeing support at 1.03654; Invalidates < 1.03501:

snapshot


@tradingview $AUD $NZD #RBA #RBNZ #USD
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
04 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$AUDNZD moves on down to less probable nominal TG-Lo and TG-Lox targets:

snapshot


@tradingview $AUD $NZD #RBA #RBNZ #forex
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
HamedAghajani PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hi David The extreme targets defined in the above chart (28 JAN 2015) are different from the ones at 12 FEB. Probably that's because the later chart is more granular time frame?!
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO HamedAghajani
2 years ago
Hello @HamedAghajani - I have used different timeframes and different markets - I would use the most recent targets, based on the dates. The model is usually quite stable in producing targets with near-similar values, but once I change between M15, H1, H4, and DAILY charts, the variation can be a bit too much to take. Typically, I remain at the H4 level, unless the swings are clearly moving so strongly against low-probability levels, such as the nominal targets, that it will require a step-up in timeframe consideration.

I will be posting in a few minutes a recapitaluation of the rules involved in the model's way of defining targets, retracement and reversal levels, and what this all means.
David
+2 Reply
20 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$AUDNZD hit 1.02525 target from 28 JAN 2015; Indicates high-prob. reversal:

snapshot


@tradingview $AUD $NZD #RBA #RBNZ $USD
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snapshot



David Alcindor

============

Tech-note:

This pair has been pulling back and given false signals quite consistently. I would look for a significant structural definition to the upside to be drawn first, and then a break above that structure-high as a signal for entry.

David
+2 Reply
30 MAR 2015 - Update;

A smaller geometry (GREEN) completed at 5-prime, corresponding to a potential Point-3 definition of a larger geometry (RED).

Expect price to rally from current 5-prime level back up to the 1-4 Line (BLUE) of the smaller geometry.

Considering the pending completion of the larger geometry, the 1-4 Line of the smaller geometry should offer a probable reversal level towards that larger completion.


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
snapshot
Just spotted this on the daily chart!
Reply
iefan PRO iefan
2 years ago
The channelling between Point 1 and 4 looks very balanced.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
2 years ago
Hello @iefan - Very nice.

Now, draw a supportive trendline below RSI from level corresponding to point-1 and point-3, and projected forward ... This will guide you with the timing of a probable rallying.

Very nice.


David
+1 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
23 March 2015 12:53 - $AUDNZD

Hi David

Trendline drawn below RSI from Point 1 which looks like acting as support for the possible move higher in price, supported by the Doji on the dynamic support line from Points 1-3.
snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
2 years ago
Yes - Also, I would tend to define my 1-4 Line differently from what Mr. Bill Wolfe does, in order to compensate for a potential short-coming as price rises to the 1-4 Line.

What I would do is use point-1 as you did, but use the tunneling based - the high following point-3 - as my reference point from which to project the 1-4 Line forward.


David
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
2 years ago
Excellent find, @iefan ... Now, there appears to be three modular versions of the same pattern. This may cause price to rise significantly:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
@iefan - Here is what I mean by using the tunneling points, rather than the Point-4 itself ... I would seek to do this is the 1-4 Line runs in a way that fails to touch any part of the tunnel. If it fails to do so, I simply force contact with the tunnel, as the inflection point within the tunnel are more important (in my observation) than the residence of Point-4 itself.


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
23 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$AUDNZD rallies nicely off of background geometry completion; Bullish targets intact

snapshot


@tradingview $AUD $NZD #forex
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
HamedAghajani PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hi David. An Extremely Bullish Harmonic Impulse Wave is forming at the proximity of you defined TG-Lox in H-1 time frame. at about 1.007
snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO HamedAghajani
2 years ago
Hello @HamedAghajani - Yes, there begins to be a cluster of geometric coming into convergence right around that level - David
+3 Reply
02 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$AUDNZD hit lowest prob. target; Triggers high-prob rally; Supported by geo; Eyeing 1,0775:

snapshot


@tradingview $AUD $NZD
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
takefal 4xForecaster
2 years ago
I make this one and wait (1H timeframe)!!!!!
Reply
takefal takefal
2 years ago
ups... where is the chart? https://www.tradingview.com/e/DgwJxQjd/
Sorry David....
Reply
03 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$AUDNZD completed 5-prime; Now eyeing reversal to 1.03268/1.03385 range:

snapshot


@tradingview $NZD $AUD #RBA #RBNZ #forex
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
08 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$AUDNZD rose from hit target at geo's 5-prime; Eyes geo target @ 1.0475/1.052 range:

snapshot


@tradingview $AUD $NZD #forex
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
IvanLabrie TOP 4xForecaster
2 years ago
In EW terms it's possible it wasn't an ending diagonal at all, yet this pattern seems to help trade it.

snapshot


Interesting long potential, that's for sure.
+1 Reply
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