AUDZND@ The Perfect Elliott Wave Setup

FX:AUDNZD   Australian Dollar / New Zealand Dollar
Counting waves to this one was very easy. Since 2011 price is moving in descending channel having formed the first 5 waves of an elliott wave cycle. A bullish divergence in RSI pushed price higher breaking the long term resistance upper TL of the channel compliting wave A of the ABC correction pattern which follows the 5 waves.

Price is now entering a key support zone where we should have wave B completion. One more wave up will complete the entire cycle. There will be many long opportunities in wave C and as soon as i indetify a bullish signal in the lower timeframes i will update this post.

Like and comment,
thank so much
thanks. nice post. AGREED.
I think it's an ABCxABC thing, elongated flat c of B could be in play.
Too much time for it to be a wave 2 in a trending impulse and I don't see clear 5 waves up on the first leg, but not that important.
Timing rules out wave 1-2 in my opinion, based on my superficial neowave knowledge.
Using other methods, I get that AUD is considerably weaker than NZD, so, I'd be careful trying longs on this falling knife.
Fxprotrader IvanLabrie
I am having a look at that neowave theory since you told me about it.. As for the setup the impulsive move that broke the long term resistnace level, has made a higher high. Thank you for your comment, Ivan.. Always helpful :)
Fxprotrader Fxprotrader
** has made a higher high. That's why i believe that we have a trend change.
IvanLabrie Fxprotrader
Yes, it needs some follow through asap to confirm, but it might be the case. A rule is that you need to retrace a previous wave by 100% to start to consider it ended. This is a problem with labeling your big 1, 1. It doesn't move under the previous swing low on completion, so it's not an impulse's wave 1 by definition, as per neowave.
(I had the same wave count but Tim West corrected me a while back) Just a heads up.
We can determine what it will do without using EW here, it's a pretty low liquidity pair, so I wouldn't worry too much about EW.
Patterns, price action, trendlines, time at mode, other methods will most likely work.
Fxprotrader IvanLabrie
Ok mate thank you for your support..
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie Fxprotrader
Just my 2 cents. You have a very good eye for this, keep up the great work.
Fxprotrader IvanLabrie
Thank you for your kind words. Have in mind that i am new to trading, and i am passionate in keep improving in everything i get involved. I glad you are around and keep commenting. Let me now continue with my neowave study.. :)
IvanLabrie Fxprotrader
Take your time, I hope you find it as enlightening as I did.
It's interesting to keep in mind that Glenn Neely himself isn't trading using his forecasting tools, since he discovered that forecasting doesn't lead to profits in the markets by itself, because of the lag needed to confirm wave counts. He is, though, possibly (100% sure according to my mentor, Tim West) the best elliotician out there though.
I use time at mode, which is a methodology devised by Tim West ( https://www.tradingview.com/u/timwest/ ) to trade, but I do consider neowave and its rules from time to time, when applicable.
Have a good one!
+1 Reply
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