AUDNZD Bottom and China's Relief Rally
Thesis:
Speculators were overly positive regarding NZD's prospects for raising rates. In the end, the RBNZ maintained rates and were dovish. On top of this, China stock market is at peak pessimism with a relief rally currently in play. This should affect both AUD and NZD currencies, but especially, AUD; hence, I am holding out that AUD will strengthen against NZD in the medium-term for about two quarters.
Technicals:
There is no definite trend; however, there is definite support.
Monthly:
Monthly Support
Monthly cloud support
Note: Monthly chart has been flat since 2015. The price broke above the cloud in 2022 and has retraced to historical support and cloud support Feb 2024. This presents a potential good buying opportunity.
Monthly chart:
Weekly:
Weekly engulfing at monthly average range support and weekly average range support w/ d3v:
Daily:
Some signs of life with short-term and Longer-term Daily uRd
Close above the kijun with a DQ
Daily chart:
Other Factors:
China at peak pessimism with a relief rally in play:
Comment:
I have decided to get in early at the potential bottom since it is at strong monthly support. There is no trend and there hasn't been a trend since 2015; and, I highly I doubt that this will be the start of one. I anticipate that this will be just a local bottom that may last a quarter.
Speculators were overly positive regarding NZD's prospects for raising rates. In the end, the RBNZ maintained rates and were dovish. On top of this, China stock market is at peak pessimism with a relief rally currently in play. This should affect both AUD and NZD currencies, but especially, AUD; hence, I am holding out that AUD will strengthen against NZD in the medium-term for about two quarters.
Technicals:
There is no definite trend; however, there is definite support.
Monthly:
Monthly Support
Monthly cloud support
Note: Monthly chart has been flat since 2015. The price broke above the cloud in 2022 and has retraced to historical support and cloud support Feb 2024. This presents a potential good buying opportunity.
Monthly chart:
Weekly:
Weekly engulfing at monthly average range support and weekly average range support w/ d3v:
Daily:
Some signs of life with short-term and Longer-term Daily uRd
Close above the kijun with a DQ
Daily chart:
Other Factors:
China at peak pessimism with a relief rally in play:
Comment:
I have decided to get in early at the potential bottom since it is at strong monthly support. There is no trend and there hasn't been a trend since 2015; and, I highly I doubt that this will be the start of one. I anticipate that this will be just a local bottom that may last a quarter.
Comment:
daily stage 3 now with monthly engulfing
Capturing the swings of the stock market & currency market. It's a dirty job and equity/currency traders must do it.