4xForecaster
Short

$AUDNZD - LESSON: Geo Roots For Bears | $AUD $NZD #RBA #RBNZ

FX:AUDNZD   Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar
2375 24 37
Friends,

This Geo             has lined up a significant number of condition, both intrinsic to its internal structure and rules (e.g.: reciprocal ab = cd symmetry of its 1-2 Leg, "Tunneling" using "Geo-Anchor"), as well as extrinsic factors, such as the background development of an Elliott Wave bearish impulse, which is in the process of completing its 5th and final wave - At the foreground of all these technical is the Predictive/Forecasting Model, which has developed a bearish bias and defined a significant qualitative target, namely: TG-Lo = 0.96760.

As a disclaimer, I have to site a strong bias towards this analysis, as I have entered a short position today (30 JUN 2015) at 1.13658.

snapshot

Invalidation of the trade is rather a matter of each trader's risk tolerance as defined by his/her risk management rule. However, for those needing a structural reference, I would consider transgression of 1.16590 an event that should bring the analysis to reconsideration.

Most importantly, I would like to share certain features of Fibonacci which are crucial to defining probable targets.


FIBONACCI & TARGETS:

As illustrated in the chart, there is a close alignment between the aforementioned TG-Lo = 0.96760 (My target of this on-going trade), and the 1.272-Fibonacci extension value, wherein 1.272 is simply the square             root of 1.618.

This 1.272 extension level is rather significant in the shallowest, most aggressive counter-trend events, which is what is typically expected in the behavior of the background geometry within the price field, where a quick reversal can be seen in the ectopic locus of Point-5, expressed as Point-5-prime (5').

Another extension that would be typical of a quick turn-around in such a counter-trend measure is 1.414, whereas the standard 1.618 represents a beaten path along which most junior players might pitch their tent and never get hitched.

Along the RSI line, I have added a possible correlation in which only TWO prior events have seen values significantly elevated, followed by a price contraction of 0.786-Fib or extension of 1.272-Fib. It is from this comparative evaluation that I derive whether such excesses in RSI are accompanied by a rigid or elastic price response - In this case, the contraction and shallow extension make this a rather rigid response.

This same response is expected out of a comparable RSI-to-price elastic correlation.

There are other features that we will review as price develops and the geometry unfolds. If it goes our way, all the better, and if not, let us make it a lesson, all the same.

Best,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


-----
Twitter:
@4xForecaster

LinkedIn:
David Alcindor
-----

.
Comment: 22 OCT 2015 - I will use this space and continue pertinent "Chart Updates" as well as "Tech-Notes" using this "Update Status". so that the analysis remain in easily-retrievable chronoclogy - However, all queries, discussions and other such comments will remain in the "Post Comment" section.

Following is a cut/paste going back to 14 OCT 2015
=====================
14 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:


Following a protracted consolidation, price is finally testing new lows, moving in the direction of the bearish targets:

snapshot


David Alcindor
========================
Comment: 15 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note - FORECASTING METHODS USING ELLIOTT WAVE AND FIBONACCI ANALYSES:


Is anyone still following this snail-paced chart?

I thought it would be a good time at this point to develop a bit of the analysis, looking at several technical components in support of the bearish forecast. First, I've come across a few charts that posted contrarian directions, using a mix of patterns or technical tools. I do not feel that I am in a place to correct anyone's analysis once I see something that is wrong, but I can reassert some of my own analysis to see whether I might be looking at it the wrong way.

What follows is a bit of a detailed analysis on this $AUDNZD pair, looking specifically at Elliott Wave counts. The degrees used in the analysis are as follows:

1 - Cycle, looking at 1+ years of cycle completion
2 - Primary, looking at months to 1-year cycle completion
3 - Intermediate, looking at weeks to months of cycle completion

A cycle would comprise a 5-wave impulse and a 3-wave correction


DETAILED ANALYSIS:

Now, let's look at the WEEKLY chart:
snapshot


At first glance, one should agree that the current price action is occurring along a down-slope. Hence, we are dealing with a bearish development. Moreover, the swing low that is developing is paced at an Elliott Wave defining an impulse - I have highlighted the internal motive wave that constitute the 3rd wave of the entire bearish impulse, flanked by a preceding 3-wave correction and followed by another 3-wave correction, each belonging to a separate breed of corrective waves.

These corrective waves do not just a function of delaying the net forward motion of price. They are also important as they help generate a forecast regarding the probability of the ensuing price action.

First, let's note that the preceding correction is a 3-wave with internals defined as 5-3-5. The only possible correction starting with a 5-wave internal is a zig-zag ("ZZ"). Although there are several types of these ZZ, here we are dealing with the simplest of them all (others would be a Double-ZZ and a Triple-ZZ). Note also that in most cases, Wave-2 will develop a simpler correction than Wave-4, as is the case in the current chart:

snapshot


Second, recall that two rules will tend to affect the predictive potential of price action using these waves (which is why corrective waves are excellent forecasting tools in terms of establishing a probability in the next price development). The first rule is that of equality affecting the development of the motive waves within an impulse. In contrast, alternations affect the development of corrective waves.


... Cont'd ...
Comment: EQUALITY:
In general terms, motive wave-1 would almost always equal motive wave-2 if motive wave-3 is extended. Therefore, looking at the entire move and ascribing a wave count, we are looking at the first impulse down, constituting motive wave-1 ("IMP) in green:

snapshot


If the middle segment of the entire impulse was elongated, then it could be that wave-3, which drives that middle segment, would be extended. In such a case, then the rule of equality would allow us to forecast with a relatively high probability that motive wave-4, which stands at the symmetrical opposite of the elongation, would also be equal to the height (as well as the breath) of the first wave. We would thus be able to forecast the following possible target, terminating at the level of the pink arrow:

snapshot


Note that the anatomy of the internal motive wave-3 is simply too simple to consider this to be an elongation. Therefore, we can also use the forecasting method of this equality rule and say beforehand that it would probably not apply here.


ALTERNATIONS:
First, let's highlight the corrective waves of consideration:

snapshot


As mentioned before, the corrective wave displays a 5-3-5 internal construction - This is a feature unique to the zig-zag. So, if you know you are establishing a wave count that starts as a 5-wave impulse and moving against the prevailing trend, then you are probably dealing with a ZZ.

The second corrective wave highlighted in the chart has two important features: First, its internal count reveals a 3-3-5 structure - This tells you that you are dealing with a Flat, of which there are 3 forms: Regular, Running and Expanding. Second, looking at the behavior of each internal waves of this Flat, we see that wave-B exceeds the origination level of wave-A, and that wave-C exceed the termination level of wave-A. This makes it an Expanded Flat. In a Regular Flat, wave-B would end where wave-A started, and wave-C would end where wave-A ended, all appearing into a flat top and flat bottom geometry. In contrast, in a Running Flat, the pattern looks like wave-B wants to waste no time moving forward, bringing in the direction of the dominant trend its origin and terminal point skewed above those of wave-A, giving wave-C no chance to level with the end of wave-A.

... Con'td ...
Comment: FIBONACCI PROPORTIONALITY:

Since we are on the topic of proportion, some might find it interesting to note that these corrective waves maintain internal proportions, such that:

1 - Wave-B of the FIRST corrective wave = Wave-C in terms of breadth;
snapshot


Similarly:

2 - Wave-B of the SECOND corrective wave = Wave-C in terms of breadth
snapshot


As you might expect, the heights of these wave also maintain internal correspondences, which you can verify on your own. Simply use 1.131, 1.272, 1.313, 1.414, 1.500 and 1.618 to confirm these internal relationship, which are really maintained throughout all and any other Elliott Wave pattern.


OVERALL:

I hope I was able to clarify the expected intent of price action, since what we just covered serves really one main purpose: Deciding what is the most probable price direction. I decided to add this Elliott Wave analysis by stepping away from the geometry exercises I have introduced in this community over the year (Geo), and look into rules and properties that would support continued decline in price.

For those who have followed the analysis from the beginning, here is the Geo as a background geometry, as well as the original target, defined by the Predictive/Forecasting Model in the foreground, as:

- TG-Lo = 0.96760 - 30 JUN 2015


This is a "Qual-Target", which means that a significant push back in the order of a reversal (rather than retracement) is likely to occur.

Best trading!


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


-----
Twitter: @4xForecaster
LinkedIn: David Alcindor
TradingView: http://www.TradingView.com/u/4xforecaster
-----
======================
Comment: 22 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

For those familiar with the "House Cleaning" strategy, look for a completion here - Essentially, price is expected to relax to the upside before recommencing its bearish tack:

snapshot


David Alcindor
Comment: 30 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Target Hit:

Price hit its first and last quantitative target. Per Predictive/Forecasting Model, this should impose a minimal resistance to bears:

snapshot


Overall directional bias remains bearish - Weekly chart targets remain intact and in force.

David Alcindor
Comment: 03 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price is reacting upward from the quantitative target (TG-1) ... As you may recall, Quant-Target are levels that will define future R/S levels if entering a new territory, or would likely confirm prior R/S levels when traveling back into visited territories.

In terms of amplitude, Quant-Targets will tend to cause a limited reaction (i.e.: retracement rathen than reversal) in price, typically in the 0.386 to 0.618-Fibonaci range.

snapshot


David Alcindor
Comment: 04 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:


As mentioned before, a probable "House Cleaning" pattern is completing.

Look for 1.09622 level as probable reversal level:

snapshot


David Alcindor
Comment: 07 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

snapshot


Despite a recent consolidation, a reversal off of 1.09622 remains a high-probability event.

David Alcindor
Comment: ANNOUNCEMENT: "Brain Chatter Rooms"

There are several "Chatrooms" in which I do most of the "brain chatter" with myself. These rooms are more like back-stage "ateliers" where I prepare educational trades in advance.

You are welcome to wipe the dust off of the windows and peek in. The glass is rather thick: I rarely reply to taps on the glass or even shouts from the door. I work very late hours in the ER and I use these moments to collect thoughts, ideas, concepts, and lay it out there in the open.

If you think this could be beneficial to friends, peers, family, and perhaps perk up their interest in more advance technical analysis than the over-traded patterns, then feel free to share these links with them.

These are all free analyses, all resulting from years of defining a Predictive/Forecasting Model. I appreciate your intelligent comment, insightful posts and kind referrals.

Best,

David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


-----
Twitter: @4xForecaster
LinkedIn: David Alcindor
TradingView: http://www.TradingView.com/u/4xforecaster
-----

LINKS:

ATHENA | Predictive Analysis & Forecasting | 4xForecaster:
- https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#x0ZJVZ9JQjlrtd7Y

$BTC | Predictive Analysis & Forecasting | 4xForecaster:
https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#nG7jDhaJhHHw8Vya

$GBP | Predictive Analysis & Forecasting | 4xForecaster:
https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#bZqW5FlhT8pAHG3O

$CAD | Predictive Analysis & Forecasting | 4xForecaster:
https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#HdxRFUvVWTjG9b6T

$EUR | Predictive Analysis & Forecasting | 4xForecaster:
https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#7HTVurNyJ5DowtvZ

$NZD | Predictive Analysis & Forecasting | 4xForecaster:
https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#bgEqXd7ORktSJznD

Metals | Predictive Analysis & Forecasting | 4xForecaster:
https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#QHPeo09xhTSe8Chl

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https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#XlzEojkKuqMNZchu

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Commodities
https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#PjgJtIACnrHizR6O


* * * Archives of Hit Targets * * *
https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#i3wn5TOs6r0WY2p2
===================================

Feel free to capture and share links - I do apologize ahead for not immediately or rather rarely replying to inquiries within these chatroom - Best is to contact me through the threads, such as this one, where the discussion can reach a far greater number of traders and benefit not just the chatroom participants, but the larger community of traders here on TradingView and outside.

Also, these chatrooms are not spaces where I would engage traders into circular arguments, as I really have no opinion of the underlying market for which the analyses are provided. This is all educational, and if you need real trading advice, seek that of a certified professional - I am a non-certified life-time student of the market. I am the author of several proprietary (i.e.: not for sharing) patterns (Great White, Janus, Euclid) and lesson-based shared methods (EAGLE, AFT), but I do spend most of my time double tasking between broken people and breaking markets.

Best,


David Alcindor


PS: If you like certain charts, ideas, concepts, then given it a thumbs-up so I know which one to delve into and which one to lay off of. And, if you think these are ideas that can advance the edification of a peer, then I thank you ahead for sharing - I don't make money via memberships. Just trading my own ideas and free-sharing ... Just a better credential, if I may say so.

Cheers to your profitable trades,

David

===================================
Comment: 09 NOV 2015 - Chart Update:

1.09622 remains unanswered and still probable:

snapshot


David Alcindor
Comment: 12 NOV 2015 - Chart Update:

Price leaps to 1.09622 as forecast. Expecting reversal from this level, resumption of bearish targets:
snapshot


David Alcindor
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: MarketPredictiveAnalysis@gmail.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
25 OCT 2015 - Tech-Note:

Feel free to follow this frame-by-frame Elliott Wave channel method to define probable proximal targets, as well as points 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 of an impulse:
(See most recent comments at the bottom of this thread:https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#2rukclGw96Afn0lU in the "$AUD | Predictive Analysis & Forecasting" room)

If this is relevant to your peers, please share this free lesson.

David Alcindor
+4 Reply
22 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:


For those familiar with the "House Cleaning" strategy, look for a completion here - Essentially, price is expected to relax to the upside before recommencing its bearish tack:

snapshot



David Alcindor
+4 Reply
Heelfan23 PRO 4xForecaster
Good afternoon David!!! I hope all is well. Sorry, I'm not familiar with House Cleaning. When you have some time can you expand on that? I'm trying to absorb as much as possible. Once again you are right on point with your predictions. Absolutely amazing!!!!!
Reply
15 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note - FORECASTING METHODS USING ELLIOTT WAVE AND FIBONACCI ANALYSES:


Is anyone still following this snail-paced chart?

I thought it would be a good time at this point to develop a bit of the analysis, looking at several technical components in support of the bearish forecast. First, I've come across a few charts that posted contrarian directions, using a mix of patterns or technical tools. I do not feel that I am in a place to correct anyone's analysis once I see something that is wrong, but I can reassert some of my own analysis to see whether I might be looking at it the wrong way.

What follows is a bit of a detailed analysis on this $AUDNZD pair, looking specifically at Elliott Wave counts. The degrees used in the analysis are as follows:

1 - Cycle, looking at 1+ years of cycle completion
2 - Primary, looking at months to 1-year cycle completion
3 - Intermediate, looking at weeks to months of cycle completion

A cycle would comprise a 5-wave impulse and a 3-wave correction


DETAILED ANALYSIS:

Now, let's look at the WEEKLY chart:
snapshot



At first glance, one should agree that the current price action is occurring along a down-slope. Hence, we are dealing with a bearish development. Moreover, the swing low that is developing is paced at an Elliott Wave defining an impulse - I have highlighted the internal motive wave that constitute the 3rd wave of the entire bearish impulse, flanked by a preceding 3-wave correction and followed by another 3-wave correction, each belonging to a separate breed of corrective waves.

These corrective waves do not just a function of delaying the net forward motion of price. They are also important as they help generate a forecast regarding the probability of the ensuing price action.

First, let's note that the preceding correction is a 3-wave with internals defined as 5-3-5. The only possible correction starting with a 5-wave internal is a zig-zag ("ZZ"). Although there are several types of these ZZ, here we are dealing with the simplest of them all (others would be a Double-ZZ and a Triple-ZZ). Note also that in most cases, Wave-2 will develop a simpler correction than Wave-4, as is the case in the current chart:

snapshot



Second, recall that two rules will tend to affect the predictive potential of price action using these waves (which is why corrective waves are excellent forecasting tools in terms of establishing a probability in the next price development). The first rule is that of equality affecting the development of the motive waves within an impulse. In contrast, alternations affect the development of corrective waves.


EQUALITY:
In general terms, motive wave-1 would almost always equal motive wave-2 if motive wave-3 is extended. Therefore, looking at the entire move and ascribing a wave count, we are looking at the first impulse down, constituting motive wave-1 ("IMP) in green:

snapshot



If the middle segment of the entire impulse was elongated, then it could be that wave-3, which drives that middle segment, would be extended. In such a case, then the rule of equality would allow us to forecast with a relatively high probability that motive wave-4, which stands at the symmetrical opposite of the elongation, would also be equal to the height (as well as the breath) of the first wave. We would thus be able to forecast the following possible target, terminating at the level of the pink arrow:

snapshot


Note that the anatomy of the internal motive wave-3 is simply too simple to consider this to be an elongation. Therefore, we can also use the forecasting method of this equality rule and say beforehand that it would probably not apply here.


ALTERNATIONS:
First, let's highlight the corrective waves of consideration:

snapshot


As mentioned before, the corrective wave displays a 5-3-5 internal construction - This is a feature unique to the zig-zag. So, if you know you are establishing a wave count that starts as a 5-wave impulse and moving against the prevailing trend, then you are probably dealing with a ZZ.

The second corrective wave highlighted in the chart has two important features: First, its internal count reveals a 3-3-5 structure - This tells you that you are dealing with a Flat, of which there are 3 forms: Regular, Running and Expanding. Second, looking at the behavior of each internal waves of this Flat, we see that wave-B exceeds the origination level of wave-A, and that wave-C exceed the termination level of wave-A. This makes it an Expanded Flat. In a Regular Flat, wave-B would end where wave-A started, and wave-C would end where wave-A ended, all appearing into a flat top and flat bottom geometry. In contrast, in a Running Flat, the pattern looks like wave-B wants to waste no time moving forward, bringing in the direction of the dominant trend its origin and terminal point skewed above those of wave-A, giving wave-C no chance to level with the end of wave-A.


FIBONACCI PROPORTIONALITY:

Since we are on the topic of proportion, some might find it interesting to note that these corrective waves maintain internal proportions, such that:

1 - Wave-B of the FIRST corrective wave = Wave-C in terms of breadth;
snapshot


Similarly:

2 - Wave-B of the SECOND corrective wave = Wave-C in terms of breadth
snapshot



As you might expect, the heights of these wave also maintain internal correspondences, which you can verify on your own. Simply use 1.131, 1.272, 1.313, 1.414, 1.500 and 1.618 to confirm these internal relationship, which are really maintained throughout all and any other Elliott Wave pattern.


OVERALL:

I hope I was able to clarify the expected intent of price action, since what we just covered serves really one main purpose: Deciding what is the most probable price direction. I decided to add this Elliott Wave analysis by stepping away from the geometry exercises I have introduced in this community over the year (Geo), and look into rules and properties that would support continued decline in price.

For those who have followed the analysis from the beginning, here is the Geo as a background geometry, as well as the original target, defined by the Predictive/Forecasting Model in the foreground, as:

- TG-Lo = 0.96760 - 30 JUN 2015


This is a "Qual-Target", which means that a significant push back in the order of a reversal (rather than retracement) is likely to occur.

Best trading!


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


-----
Twitter: @4xForecaster
LinkedIn: David Alcindor
TradingView: http://www.TradingView.com/u/4xforecaster
-----


.
+1 Reply
HamedAghajani PRO 4xForecaster
Solid rock discussion
+2 Reply
14 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:


Following a protracted consolidation, price is finally testing new lows, moving in the direction of the bearish targets:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
Heelfan23 PRO 4xForecaster
Hello David. Do you still expect this pair to run back up to the 1.10345 level?
+2 Reply
Hello @Heelfan23 - Not since breaking below 1.089 threshold. Expecting a sustain descent into bearish targets ... Temporizing consolidation may occur at the forewarned 1.07617 zone (belongs to a significant historical R/S level, as shown to the left of the chart), but once this level converts from support to resistance (i.e.: price fails a rally from the underside), then bulls are toast.

David
+2 Reply
25 SEP 2015 - Chart Update:

Geo fails validation by breaching TL. A wider 1-2 Leg preserves a Wolfe Wave. I would wait and see in this case:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
21 SEP 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:


Nascent Geo is occurring within the protracted consolidation zone; Predictive/Forecasting Model's targets remain intact:


4-Hour Chart:
snapshot



1-Hour Chart:
snapshot



Note the Geo's internal construction requirements are met, such that:
1 - The 1-2 Leg completes a reciprocal ab = cd pattern
2 - The 2-3 Leg is typically a complex Elliott Wave zig-zag ("ZZ") such as a TZZ, or less commonly a 5-wave impulse ("IMP").
3 - The 3-4 Leg is typically a simple ZZ with its recognizable a-b-c internal construction as drawn in the H1 chart
4 - The 4-5 Leg is typically a simple ZZ, except in this case, where an IMP is expected.

The most proximal target here is the highlighted zone at the geometry's underbelly, corresponding to a significant historical pivot level, as shown in the larger H4 chart.

Best,


David Alcindor
+6 Reply
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