Long AUDNZD: Inverse H&S formation targeting 1.2345
A huge inverse H&S formation has formed on the weekly chart of AUDNZD with a successful upside break of the 1.1280 neckline targeting a measured move to the long term 62% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2345
With the Australian dollar gaining strength from what appeared to be a failed attempt at forming this potentially bullish pattern earlier this year, and oversold conditions and positive divergence on the momentum indicators, this could produce an incredible trade if the pattern is validated by a weekly close above the neckline and the 38% Fibonacci retracement level (1.1450) is claimed.
Whilst traditionally you would wait for confirmation of a break of the neckline (around 1.1280) before entering the trade, more aggressive traders may look to enter early in half size with a suggested stop around 1.0300 (1.0645 last), and add on the break. Even if price tests 1.1280 and fails to break resistance (invalidating the setup), then the risk skew still provides an attractive 2:1 payoff.
With the Australian dollar gaining strength from what appeared to be a failed attempt at forming this potentially bullish pattern earlier this year, and oversold conditions and positive divergence on the momentum indicators, this could produce an incredible trade if the pattern is validated by a weekly close above the neckline and the 38% Fibonacci retracement level (1.1450) is claimed.
Whilst traditionally you would wait for confirmation of a break of the neckline (around 1.1280) before entering the trade, more aggressive traders may look to enter early in half size with a suggested stop around 1.0300 (1.0645 last), and add on the break. Even if price tests 1.1280 and fails to break resistance (invalidating the setup), then the risk skew still provides an attractive 2:1 payoff.
A note of caution for AUDNZD bulls - AUDUSD will be sold if/when equity risk sentiment wanes. With US equities at all-time highs and earnings continuing to disappoint, as well as increased political uncertainty and volatility over the summer months, being long AUD in any cross is a trade you that requires you to monitor closely.