FX:AUDNZD   Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar
2305 58 39
Pending long at broken neckline

I am looking for an upside correction simply on a double bottom pattern completion. We have the main descending resistance and the 50-days SMA slightly above current level, where we might see a reactive downside pullback and an opportunity to go long.

Trading Criteria:
1.Trades are taken in two units
2.First unit would be closed at first target
3.Stop loss is then moved to break-even
4.Second unit would be closed at second target
Notes:
5) If 90 percent of first target is reached without triggering entry I cancel the trade
6) If 90 percent of first target is reached I move stop loss to breakeven.
7) Remember: Losing is a main part of the game

Good luck...
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Technician
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Excellent tip!
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thx
-1 Reply
Very good call. The next minor retracement, definitely seems like a great entry.
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Technician TOP resurrector007
lets hope so, thanks
-1 Reply
Hey technician, Just wanted to know what did you took into account when placing stop loss?
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Technician TOP moneymaking
Good day mate, yes sure. I took into account the latest potential horizontal support (Red line). I also projected if the move extends towards the 50-days SMA then i draw fibonacci tool to find the 61.8 retracement level. So i put it below this area.

snapshot
+1 Reply
moneymaking Technician
Awesome, thank you for clarifying. I am with you on this. Buy limit in place :)
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moneymaking Technician
We are waiting for the retracement after the close of this 4 hr candle, correct?
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Technician TOP moneymaking
Not precisely. But i don't want price to reach first target before triggering entry. If it does so, i wont long, i will wait for candle confirmation
+1 Reply
moneymaking Technician
Ok, that's sound like a good approach.
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moneymaking Technician
So if we get a retest before reaching 1st target, than it's still valid?
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Technician TOP moneymaking
Yes, also if we reach more than 80 percent of first target.
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moneymaking Technician
I just wanted to ask question about this. How do you know at what price level we have reached 80% of the 1st target? Is there any calculation that is involved? I still haven't gotten this concept clearly.
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Technician TOP moneymaking
for example, if the first target is 100 pips above entry, then if we move 80 pips from entry towards target than 80% of target was reached
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moneymaking Technician
Ohhh ok, Got it now. Thank you technician, I learn so much from you and your analysis. Keep up the Good Work :)
+1 Reply
Hey technician, I wanted to get your opinion on this setup on GBPJPY. We broke and closed above the previous lower high and the 100 MA. We have retested the previous lower high as well. Is this a good reason to enter long on retest and target for 61.8% up ahead? Here's the chart:
snapshot
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Technician TOP moneymaking
nothing wrong with your reasoning i believe. Valid analysis.
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moneymaking Technician
Awesome, Thank you so much. You done with your long position on GBPJPY?
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Technician TOP moneymaking
yeah closed lower, near the 200 days sma,
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Hi, thanks for your great ideas. they are best.
but in this i have a question! Double bottom and pull back is enough?
any confluence?
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Technician TOP FereydoonIzady
its not always enough, good thing if you wait for further confirmation. For me, i have a fundamental reason behind counting on this pattern alone
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Technician TOP Technician
and anyway, it could fail :D
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FereydoonIzady Technician
thanks. I hope it mage good pips :) lots of them
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Technician TOP FereydoonIzady
hope so , thanks mate
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Thank you, master! I'm all in now.
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Technician TOP OccultTrader
You are welcome , i am no master :)
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Is it a good approach to wait for a daily close above the neckline and then look for retest? This will cancel a lot of the noise, if there happened to be any.
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Technician TOP moneymaking
Yeah, for me, for a breakout to be confirmed, i need a daily closing above the level. But i think we have penetrated the neckline enough to confirm a breakout and we will probably get the daily closing above it today.
+1 Reply
moneymaking Technician
I agree, We also got 4hr candle close above 200 MA. Looks good. Since the major daily trend is still bearish, we should have tight stops in place.
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Technician TOP moneymaking
yeah, this is the main worry, but anyway, it doesnt matter on the long run if we use appropriate setups and money management, we will end up positive
+1 Reply
moneymaking Technician
Ya totally agree, actively managing this position is the key to this trade setup :)
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I think we'll have a pullback very soon. I am out. Waiting for it.
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Technician TOP OccultTrader
lets see mate waiting as well
+2 Reply
Hey technician, Are you taking the broken 200 MA into account for your entry? It might bounce of the 200 MA without triggering the entry. It happened to me on GBPJPY, I had a buy limit at the previous broken lower high, the one I showed you earlier, and it never got filled, even with taking spread, 100 MA on the daily and additional 5 pips into account.
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Technician TOP moneymaking
Not really. I dont use any averages except the 200 Days and the 50 Days
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Nice call....
I hope it will be a good entry.....
all the best ...... :-)
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Thanks our friend
+1 Reply
Getting closer to the entry :)
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Technician TOP moneymaking
15 more pips
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MuathAlBulbul Technician
Dear technician, don't you think that its a bit risky to trade long with anything AUD? We all know that they are cutting rates sooner or later, so should we long this one? Technically speaking your analysis is wonderful, but fundamentally, I am not so sure! What do you think?
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Technician TOP MuathAlBulbul
Don't really want to over-think this. Trade what you see. Its just a technical setup, thats supported by dovish tone from RBNZ.
+1 Reply
Hi Technician - Love your simple setups. Keep them coming. Can you clarify one thing for me. You mention a descending 50 days SMA although on the chart it says MA 300.

Thanks!
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Still no entry :(
+1 Reply
ashif030 moneymaking
yes brother still no entry .... :(
+1 Reply
moneymaking ashif030
Seeing it go higher only makes it worse, LOL. Not looking at this one till friday morning :)
+1 Reply
Hey technician, is this trade still holding? The first target is at 120 pips and the market has moved 90 pips till now. So we haven't reached the 80% of the target yet. You still holding on to your limit order?
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Technician TOP moneymaking
Yeah, but i will wait for candlestick confirmation if we retrace
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P_Parker Technician
Hi,
do you wait always for candlestick pattern as confirmation to finally open a position?
Which one do you prefer?
regards
parker
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In most cases, but not always.
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Hey technician, the market has reached 80% of the target without triggering entry, buy limit closed.
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Technician TOP moneymaking
Yes mate, i cancelled order too. But that doesnt mean that i wont look to long if i see a pullback and confirmation. GL
+1 Reply
Looking at this pair gets me disgusted I swear! I lost more than 3000$ believing it would go up since it was hitting all time low! I held my long position at 1.0220 for a while, it went up and down from there, I was stopped at 1.0050 the first time it hit it, and I would've kept this open if it wasn't for what I kept reading from "big" analysts who swore that this is going down even more for the rate cuts which never happened. Damn company driven analysts and the lies they spread, I should have been making money out of this one instead of losing.

It's a lesson to be learnt; there is no fundamental analysis what so ever for us (normal traders), they would never let out that info. What you get is the lies of what larger banks WANT you to think you know, that's it. It's a very expensive lesson to be learnt, but hope this message reaches out to someone else out there! :)
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Technician TOP MuathAlBulbul
Sorry for your loss. There is one thing that anyone should keep in mind if they want to be successful whether through fundamental or technical analysis, which is : " Have Your Own Opinion and Trade On it" . So to be able to have your own opinion, you have to spend a hell lot of time learning... Good Luck.
+1 Reply
MuathAlBulbul Technician
Thank you Mr. Loay for your kind words. What you said is truly fundamental! HAVE YOUR OWN OPINION, that is really important, but one should also learn from other experienced people who are out there, just like yourself. This is why TradingView is really one of the top trading websites! It gathers normal people, who are kind enough to share their knowledge with others.

Thanks again, and still waiting for your website!
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AndrewKwa MuathAlBulbul
I understand your feeling. Unfortunately big analyst don't really have 100% answers. I always treat that as kind references. They do make good points most of the time.

I do 100% of my analysts myselfs. Technician did a really nice job.

Whats more important is trade management. And always stick to your trading journal.
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MuathAlBulbul AndrewKwa
Thanks for your kind words. The thing is that I do that too, I originally stuck to my plan and kept this open even when it was losing, my SL was a bit below parity. I keep track of news and I have a couple of subscriptions to some big-ass analysts, I also have a friend who's a member of the analysis team in good bank in my country. News and the 2 analysts kept swearing that there are rate cuts coming this month, or the next, and they were 100% sure of it. My friend told me that their team doesn't have a clear opinion on this pair, but he confirmed that all news and big analysts are talking about a rate cut. I don't know if you got my situation, but it becomes really hard to stick to your plan when everyone else is saying otherwise, especially if you were losing!

I didn't listen that much, it just affected my SL, I moved it above for a 50 pip consolidation, and I wish I didn't!

I know I wrote a lot! lol, I just wanted to share my story hoping that it might reach someone out there, to learn what they can and keep reading, but have an own opinion to decide, and stick to what they believe in.
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We missed this trade by few pips :S . But no harm :)
+1 Reply
ashif030 Technician
yes..... :-)
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