AUDNZD - Potential Short Set Up
Failed to break out of strong resistance zone. Retested zone and formed hammer (bearish price action). Expect a modest retracement or potential retest of ~1.114 area. Additionally, it is potentially in another brief consolidation zone before dropping further.
Bottom line:
- I expect a good selling opportunity
- The drop could occur rapidly or take days to develop (due to potential consolidation zone (roughly ~1.1148 to ~1.104)
- Initially, I considered placing a 1/2 sell order @ ~1.1096 and @ ~1.114. HOWEVER, I am hesitant to place the 1.1096. This pair could easy spike 100 pips and take out my SL.
- The most difficult aspect of this trade for me is SL placement. Finding the efficient point to enter the trade and establishing a SL that can handle volatility while still having a good risk reward.
- The most conservative action would be to wait for fail retest and break below. There are two problems with this. First, the pair will have to be actively watch to not miss the move. Second, the entry price may be at a point where risk/reward is no longer appealing.
My Plan: Place small (1/4 size) Sell Limits @ 1.113, 1.116, & 1.118 AND wait for the trade to develop a bit more. This could take advantage of volatility to provide a better average entry price. It also provides additionally flexibility to make adjustments as the trade develop. (NOTE: the "1/4 size" is not based on lot size. Each sell limit is NOT the same lot. The "1/4" is referring to max loss. Each order is 1/4 the max loss.)
4H:
1W:
Bottom line:
- I expect a good selling opportunity
- The drop could occur rapidly or take days to develop (due to potential consolidation zone (roughly ~1.1148 to ~1.104)
- Initially, I considered placing a 1/2 sell order @ ~1.1096 and @ ~1.114. HOWEVER, I am hesitant to place the 1.1096. This pair could easy spike 100 pips and take out my SL.
- The most difficult aspect of this trade for me is SL placement. Finding the efficient point to enter the trade and establishing a SL that can handle volatility while still having a good risk reward.
- The most conservative action would be to wait for fail retest and break below. There are two problems with this. First, the pair will have to be actively watch to not miss the move. Second, the entry price may be at a point where risk/reward is no longer appealing.
My Plan: Place small (1/4 size) Sell Limits @ 1.113, 1.116, & 1.118 AND wait for the trade to develop a bit more. This could take advantage of volatility to provide a better average entry price. It also provides additionally flexibility to make adjustments as the trade develop. (NOTE: the "1/4 size" is not based on lot size. Each sell limit is NOT the same lot. The "1/4" is referring to max loss. Each order is 1/4 the max loss.)
4H:
1W:
Trade active:
Two limit orders executed. Current average entry price is 1.1147.
