Technician
Long

#AUDNZD: Resuming Bullish Trend! #forex

FX:AUDNZD   Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar
2399 38 46
Fundamental changes came to confirm a potential bullish reversal, and therefore, I am looking for the bullish trend to resume.

RBA was less dovish- more hawkish in its monetary policy statment yesterday
Two Main changes in the statment yesterday, compared to last month:
1) A sentence was added about employment: "growth of employment and a steady rate of unemployment over the past year. ".
2)Hints to strong AUD was omitted. Precisely: "Further depreciation seems both likely and necessary,"

Bottom line: it seems that the RBA is holding neutral for now, with no additional rate cuts on the horzion

The RBNZ on the other hand hinted in its previous assesment that further rate cuts is likely in the near future.

My best regards
Technician
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Fully agree, I am already long based on similar reasoning (on a smaller time frame and with a less ambitious target). Technician goes fundamental? :)
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Technician TOP JasperForex
a year ago
:D. Yeah in this case the fundamentals are flashing a buy.
I already had a long last night and unfortunately my target was at 1.1222, it was closed when i was sleeping. If i was there when the news came i would have changed the target to much higher.
Anyway, if we get some good employment data from NZD tonight i would long again on a pullback.
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TradingWisdoms
a year ago
Agreed

Longer term target around 1.20
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Technician TOP TradingWisdoms
a year ago
Good luck
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TradingWisdoms Technician
a year ago
Thank you
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Is that a double top?
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Technician TOP Captain_Walker
a year ago
where exactly?
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Captain_Walker PRO Technician
a year ago
Only asking not asserting. I'm still learning much. I've been much perplexed about the definiton of a double top.
snapshot

In addition the band of resistance on the weekly seems strong (at the moment) though it could well fail based on fundamentals as you outline.
+1 Reply
Technician TOP Captain_Walker
a year ago
Here is What is a valid double top http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:double_top_reversal
+1 Reply
Captain_Walker PRO Technician
a year ago
Many thanks. :)
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Technician TOP Captain_Walker
a year ago
You're welcome
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FullTimeTrader
a year ago
This could be the biggest and long term rally that could last years, i just want to find a good entry point. Im expecting a deeper retracement.........
+2 Reply
moorekapital PRO FullTimeTrader
a year ago
https://moorekapital-gmail.tinytake.com/sf/MjQ5ODU1XzE1MzMzNjU
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Technician TOP FullTimeTrader
a year ago
Hope we get that retracement from NZD employment numbers .
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ValeriuV FullTimeTrader
a year ago
Hello, I don't intend to upset you but if it is indeed a trend that will last fot a long time ( years ) it makes little diference the entry point ; ) . You can take this as a joke as well.
+1 Reply
Technician TOP ValeriuV
a year ago
I am not going to trade this for the long term.
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Technician TOP Technician
a year ago
As you can see my targets arent that far, can be reached within few day to few weeks.
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ValeriuV Technician
a year ago
Yes, but in my opinion another leg down to the 1.0750 ( 50% fibo of the last move up on D1 ) although unlikely is still possible.
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Technician TOP ValeriuV
a year ago
Well, i dont expect that. I think strong upside with shallow correction is likely. Just my view.
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Olu
a year ago
I agree with this idea. A good place to get long is hard though
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ddp922
a year ago
Agree 100%
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Correction: "Stronger" growth of employment and a steady rate of unemployment over the past year.
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TradingWisdoms Technician
a year ago
There is nice bullish flag on daily chart

AUDNZD
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Olu TradingWisdoms
a year ago
That chart you put up can also be seen as price hitting the top of a down channel with some retracement to come.
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MILAD-FX-26
a year ago
HELLO FRIENDS
I THINK THAT PRICE IN THE DOWNTREND REMAIN. I do not work with Fundamental Analysis.
But I THINK remain in a downtrend is
IF CHART MONTHLY SEE WE HAVE A CANDLE REVERS FOR DOWNSIDE
DARK CLOUD COVER AND A DOWNTREND IN THE TIME FRAME H4.
I think that if the price TO high previous hit AND a new high(H.H), we have the upside potential .
BY USING PRICE ACTION ,
5 PATTERN IN A CHART

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I agree, this is what I call a Bullish Crown setup and so am awaiting for the next pull back to enter long
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ThetaTrading
a year ago
A possible wave count for this setup:
AUD/NZD: Upward Momentum Pattern
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Adhami
a year ago
Disagree !!

Though I am new to this forum and AUDNZD is not my currency, however just looking this weekly chart formation prompt me to disagree with your current bullish views based on the following logics.

a. Monthly formations indicates currency had bottom out in April and already moved good 1400 pips until June. The July downward correction seems first leg and current bull is second leg in making while a final bearish correction has to come that may bring currency back to 1.07 levels.

b. The weekly candle formation is premature as doji need confirmation for minimum two bullish candles that should not bring currency below 1.10

My views are invalid if pair decisively breach upward barrier and trade above 1.14 after today (5th August).

Still I wish you Good Luck !!
Reply
Olu Adhami
a year ago
Hi
You certainly provided food for thought. I was a bit bearish because of the downtrend channel on the chart. We have 2 sides here and the markets will tell who is right
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Adhami Olu
a year ago
Thanks for sharing your views
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Cryptoelite PRO Adhami
a year ago
Adhami - I'm of a similar opinion to you, thanks for sharing your thought!
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Adhami Cryptoelite
a year ago
Thank you
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Hi Technician, given all the news this week. Do you have any further thoughts on your post above?
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Technician TOP Cryptoelite
a year ago
Hey. I am looking for a short term confirmation signal to go long.
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Cryptoelite PRO Technician
a year ago
Hi there, I am a student of the market therefor I am not disagreeing with your sentiment, however can you please explain why you are bullish AUD? China devaluing the Yuan is deflationary and puts pressure on exporters, especially hard commodity exporters not to mention less recent events in the commodities space?
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Technician TOP Cryptoelite
a year ago
Yeah china's news came recently. I am not bullish the AUD. But recent monetary policy shift as i explained in the description above justified my outlook only against the NZD. The NZD is also vulnerable to commodities.
I am not going for a blind long though, i admit that the recent devaluation from china has made it not as clear as it was before, but if a see a strong technical confirmation i would go long.
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Cryptoelite PRO Technician
a year ago
Thanks for your reply, TA is TA and a setup is a setup so I respect that. I'm just forming a few that hard commodities are taking a bigger hit than soft and NZ trades with USA more while AUS more with China.
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Cryptoelite PRO Technician
a year ago
Hi Technician, I've noticed you haven't been very active lately. Just wondering if your TA is still bullish on this pair or if it have shifted?
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