Technician
Long

#AUDNZD: Resuming Bullish Trend! #forex

FX:AUDNZD   Australian Dollar / New Zealand Dollar
2421 38 47
Fundamental changes came to confirm a potential bullish reversal, and therefore, I am looking for the bullish trend to resume.

RBA was less dovish- more hawkish in its monetary policy statment yesterday
Two Main changes in the statment yesterday, compared to last month:
1) A sentence was added about employment: "growth of employment and a steady rate of unemployment over the past year. ".
2)Hints to strong AUD was omitted. Precisely: "Further depreciation seems both likely and necessary,"

Bottom line: it seems that the RBA is holding neutral for now, with no additional rate cuts on the horzion

The RBNZ on the other hand hinted in its previous assesment that further rate cuts is likely in the near future.

My best regards
Technician
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Hi Technician, given all the news this week. Do you have any further thoughts on your post above?
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Technician Cryptoelite
Hey. I am looking for a short term confirmation signal to go long.
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Cryptoelite Technician
Hi there, I am a student of the market therefor I am not disagreeing with your sentiment, however can you please explain why you are bullish AUD? China devaluing the Yuan is deflationary and puts pressure on exporters, especially hard commodity exporters not to mention less recent events in the commodities space?
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Technician Cryptoelite
Yeah china's news came recently. I am not bullish the AUD. But recent monetary policy shift as i explained in the description above justified my outlook only against the NZD. The NZD is also vulnerable to commodities.
I am not going for a blind long though, i admit that the recent devaluation from china has made it not as clear as it was before, but if a see a strong technical confirmation i would go long.
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Cryptoelite Technician
Thanks for your reply, TA is TA and a setup is a setup so I respect that. I'm just forming a few that hard commodities are taking a bigger hit than soft and NZ trades with USA more while AUS more with China.
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Cryptoelite Technician
Hi Technician, I've noticed you haven't been very active lately. Just wondering if your TA is still bullish on this pair or if it have shifted?
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Disagree !!

Though I am new to this forum and AUDNZD is not my currency, however just looking this weekly chart formation prompt me to disagree with your current bullish views based on the following logics.

a. Monthly formations indicates currency had bottom out in April and already moved good 1400 pips until June. The July downward correction seems first leg and current bull is second leg in making while a final bearish correction has to come that may bring currency back to 1.07 levels.

b. The weekly candle formation is premature as doji need confirmation for minimum two bullish candles that should not bring currency below 1.10

My views are invalid if pair decisively breach upward barrier and trade above 1.14 after today (5th August).

Still I wish you Good Luck !!
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Olu Adhami
Hi
You certainly provided food for thought. I was a bit bearish because of the downtrend channel on the chart. We have 2 sides here and the markets will tell who is right
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Thanks for sharing your views
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Adhami - I'm of a similar opinion to you, thanks for sharing your thought!
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