Aussie: Ready to break the strong support 0.7580

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
520 6 16
We see that AUDUSD             hold above key support 0.7580 for 4 months from March 11. This is a strong support which AUDUSD             bounced from this level 5 times, and now AUDUSD             once contacts this level. The question on the table now Does Aussie/Dollar breaks this level or bounces from the low ?

5 times bounce from the low, most people are thinking about BUY IN DIP, but be cautious . Let rethink about current situation.

I see that China stock fell sharply last month, and this trend could continue this month. PBOC cut rate, today Australia Retail Sales cann't beat the forecast.

Next week, we have RBA Minutes + Australia Employment report.

I surely RBA will use this meeting as a change to talk down the Aussie to respond the rate decision of PBOC, and most likely the employment report could be NEGATIVE.

This means Aussie most likely breaks the LOW and move lower.

- Back to the Technical Analysis .

+ RSI indicator show the indicator are falling down, and there still has the room for the decline: Oversell zone still wait for the contact.

+Price bounce from the intersection of two trend lines .

+ The most important thing I want to say is: Head and Shoulder Pattern: AUDUSD             is now stop at the neckline of pattern.

Any break the neckline always goes with the downtrend. I wait for the break.



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I am looking at short too but will wait for it to rebound to EMA 25 before re-enter..
I agree with your technical analysis (except I don't follow RSI). The H&S pattern is clearly in play. But I am not sure that it will break this time. I think it is more likely that the RBA will not drop rates next week, and the AUD will bounce off this support. I would wait for the rate decision and then enter on the bounce (long) or the break (short). There will be enough time to enter after the PA. Sacrifice a few pips for reduced risk.
looks good
Its not an HS your figures cause the arms of HS are in the same direction of the houlders,. In this case they have been to go down bot up :-)
Sforex BLUE43
Should be flexible. You don't need pattern exactly the level you want.

Sforex BLUE43
But I respect your comment.
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