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This week, main focus for AUDUSD are:
- US Payrolls
- Australia GDP
- Aus Retail Sales
- Aus Trade Balances
I maintain bearish bias for Aussie in the context that USDollar begins to regain its strength.
SMA200 sharps a strong resistance at 0.7250
But I see an unusual signal in Stoch Indicator: Lying in oversold zone for three weeks.
Aussie needs to escape...
We will have a lot of work to accomplish for EURUSD next week.
- Payrolls is the central focus.
- EZ CPI and ECB Meeting with a press conference is the key risk event for Euro next week.
I only need 30 pips to 1.1100 to cut my SHORT position of EURUSD and still believe it will touch the target.
With many disappointed data recently, I don't believe ECB...
USDJPY had had a strong effort to rally to 110.60 from the trough 105.25
Now USDJPY is testing strongest resistance levels :
- Descending trend line
- Kumo cloud
- SMA50 + EMA50
- Resistance 110.60
So I think USDJPY should bounce from those resistance.
My pick : SELL USDJPY back to 108
FOMC Minutes yesterday provided fuel for the rally of USDCAD.
Some traders negatively still lean to SELL side, but I think the trend reversed two weeks ago with the break of long term descending trend line.
1.300 is a strong resistance and Kumo cloud also weight on price action.
But today USDCAD officially breaks 1.300 and enters Kumo cloud.
A move above Kumo...
I thought Euro will be higher vs Pound.
But EURGBP turned to bearish very quick.
What I see on the chart:
- Head and Shoulder pattern, and EURGBP broke the neckline.
- SMA100 : Break.
- Move below Kumo cloud first time since Dec 2015.
EURGBP now stands above the key support 0.7710
If it could break this floor, there is a wide room below 0.7710, and E/G...
We need to watch a bigger picture of USDCAD chart.
It broke they key support 1.2800 two weeks ago.
And now the downtrend is ongoing its way to next strong support: 1.200
In the long term, I expect Loonie continues to gain ,momentum to reach 1.2000
It will be soon.
Payrolls and UK PMI construction are main data we should pay attention to trade GBPUSD this week.
The fact is UK economy performed very bad in April and the rally of Cable last week totally came from the USDollar factor not because good UK data.
According to my data connection, UK PMI Construction should be negative.
But I also have a negative view for US...
This week, market pays all attention on Aussie and RBA with many risk event and data must watch.
AUDNZD definitely will suffers a strong sell-off in this week because the divergence bwt RBA and RBNZ.
We knew that RBNZ last week left the rate "on-hold" , and Australia CPI missed the forecast, dropped to 1.7% for RBA trimmed mean CPI (YoY). AUDNZD fell about 400...
I want to talk about Aussie : The key pair must watch next week.
We had soft Aus CPI on last Tuesday.
And next week is RBA Meeting.
So the call for rate cut is increasing.
We know that RBNZ didn't cut rate because NZ CPI were better than expect, so if Aus CPI were bad, likely RBA could take action or at least send more and more dovish tone.
No matter what...
Cable quickly approaches two month high after 3 day of rally.
The rally of Cable is unusual because UK data performed very bad.
We have three resistance Cable broke them:
- Descending trend line (blue line)
- Long term descending trend line (red line )
Major resistance levels were broken, and this is a significant signal we can't ignore.
NZDUSD: The pair we must trade tomorrow.
FED Meeting comes first, then RBNZ Meeting.
Surely, Kiwi will react strongly with incoming risk event.
100% FED will hold rate, and dovish after serial of poor data.
The ball is hit to RBNZ.
Does RBNZ cut rate ? It's a big question.
The consensus forecast rate "on hold" at current level 2.25%
RBNZ in the last...
ECB failed to deliver a new life for Euro, 1.1400 proved a strong resistance, profit taking beat Euro at 1.1400 and fell aggressively in 1 hour to current level 1.1300
Now we see E/U sideways in a range between :1.1400-1.1230
Only a break either two levels will provide a clear trend to trade.
The high resilience of Euro created a tough case for traders, we don't...
I open a LONG position of AUDNZD at 1.1212, stop loss 1.100, take profit 1.1600 : This is long term trade.
Here is the point: For last 4 year, the bias to trade AUDNZD is just SELL because there was a strong divergence between RBA and RBNZ: While RBA just wanted to cut rate,RBNZ wanted to hike rate. However, the situation now changes to opposite view.: RBA wants...
Market will pay all attention on ECB Meeting with a rate decision and press conference.
100% ECB will not deliver more easing. There is no more room for rate cut as well as QE. Indeed.
And the fact is EZ economic data performed very well from last meeting, so ECB has no reason to talk about more easing.
Likely it will be a non-event.
Since last meeting, EURUSD...
EURUSD still stands firmly on 23.6% fib retracement : 1.1245
And below the support 1.1325
Next week is an very important week for Euro with ECB Meeting having a press conference.
100% there is no more easing from ECB, so we watch Draghi's comments.
Key point: does he suggest more easing or refuses to talk about it ?
If he suggests new easing, SELL Euro
Last night, we saw Australia Employment report was better than expect with employment change printed at 26.1K beat the consensus and the most important thing was unemployment rate dropped 2bp to 5.7%. With uptick employment data, RBA has no reason to be dovish and despite they don't like the strong Aussie, they should let Aussie goes up.
I see three problems on...
Gold quickly cut the rally in this week despite of weak Dollar.
This is indeed a big problem.
With the third drop in row, XAUUSD sharps a Head and Shoulder pattern on the chart.
Gold now stands infimly on SMA50 and 23.6% Fib retracement of (1050-1275)
Any break of those key supports would send gold lower to next support : The Neckline of H & S pattern and...
Failed to break 1.1500 key resistance level, E/U immediately reverses the trend.
The narrow range (1.1325-1.1500) now officially is broken.
The bias shifts from bullish to bearish.
Look at on the chart, EURUSD moved below 23.6% Fib retracement of (1.0820-1.1475), the next target is 38% Fib retracement at 1.1220
If 38% Fib retracement can't hold EURUSD, so fair...