New Month, New Low, Same Old Bears: $Gold $SLV $Copper #forex

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
620 8 0

Read on for target on Gold             , Silver             , Copper             ...

As of last March 27th, I released abysmal targets, and despite a short adverse excursion that would take my initial position out, I was able to reenter at a fraction of a pip higher (0.92729 on March 31st, compared to 0.92724 on March 27th when the signal was released).

Since that time, price marched on, carving out new lows into the new month, at the pace of bears stomping price ever so lower.

Regardless of the interim event since the target release, non of it has perturbed the original analysis and forecasting. So, there really isn't much to add here, except adding confirmation of bearish dominance.

Looking into metals, Gold             and Silver             have continued to signal their own bearish strengths, while Copper             follows a relief rally I had forecast last week, which would potentially bring its price against an overhead 3.149 resistance.


In fact, my system is projecting Gold             to find a secured floor at 1248.82. I would like to see somewhat of a continued decline by a few points and a relief rally before in this metals' king, but the system is what it is: Bearish .

Silver             remains on target towards a forecast opined on January 25th, 2013, namely: TG-1 = 18.815 - 25 JAN 2013, although I did caution several times of a potential rallying that could annul this forecast. Instead, price kept its tack.

Copper             , as indicated above, seems to float its own dingy boat, entertaining an interim relief rally in the midst of a broad depreciation wave. However, the overall forecast here remains bearish as well: a 3.149 resistance awaits this little ductile metal.


$AUD being tethered to sinking commodities is following suit. In fact, one has to look at similarly correlated currencies such as CAD, NZD and CHF, to observe the potential effects of this commodity slump.


David Alcindor
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Price seems to be in about a 100 pip channel for the last 2 weeks. I plan on going short at the top of the range.
05 APR 2014 - Chart Review/Tech-Note: AUDUSD/H4: Did A Wolfe Waves Complete?

AUDUSD/H4: Did A Wolfe Waves Complete?

In addition to a potential KoD pattern completion in the hourly chart, a wider contemplation of the price field brings to sight a potential Wolfe Waves pattern:

Chart: AUDUSD/H4 - Bearish Wolfe Waves ("WW") At 5':

As the pattern indicates, price has reached above the 1-3-5 Line to define a 3-5' Line typical of a WW extension. But whether price declines from that height and start carving out new structural lows has yet to be demonstrated. For new it's too unclear.

In fact, price has not been as distinct has it did in this Loonie Wolfe Waves pattern, where I called for a top and reversal at a similar 5-prime level:

USDCAD/H4 - Wolfe Waves Reverses At 5-Prime:

Correlations I have followed are Gold and US Dollar index.

In Gold, a bearish market reversal has printed on April 24th. However, a relief rally is underway and could reverse that trend just as well. A conditional market reversal has to the upside remains absent for now, and a structure @ 1320.40 is kept in sight to signal a potential strengthening of the bulls against my bearish bias.

As far as USDollar index direction goes, my system has produced a two back-to-back bullish, then bearish confirmation, until recently where an early bullish signal has been produced. Looking at the price action, 10495 has remained unchallenged. In fact, the recent price rallying reversed at the 0.886-Fib, which often marks the starts of a significant rally, as often seen in the emergence of Point-3 in Elliott Waves, albeit it is a bit premature, and my system remains "on the fence".

Question always worth asking oneself in a constant effort to be sucked into overconfidence:
- Am I looking at it the right way?


AUDUSD has yet to show bearish intentions. There are a lot of indirect signs, patterns and indications that it may have reached a high, but there is nothing distinct. My directional bias is neutral to bearish, whereas that of my system remains bullish.

Development of patterns and correlated conditions defined above are yet to signal a true intention to reverse to the downside.


David Alcindor
Hi 4x. Some more food for though:

As Heiken Ashi shows, the market is uncertain about the direction last few days. In my opinion, the purple range need to be broken for a direction to be formed. If broken on the up side, An AB=CD pattern is very likely. Pending orders with a save distance outside the range is the savest way of traing this market. Just my 5 cents. Like to see your comment, positive or negative, on this view.

Hi, @KevinT!

Here is your chart:

Indeed, there are so many different ways of seeing a price action, interpreting it into a whole variety of context (pattern, fundamentals, personal needs, ... etc).

For instance, here is what I see:

Now, I see this development (Bearish Wolfe Waves, "WW", with its requisite rising 1-3-5 and 2-4 defining sides for it to be a true WW). I decided to not post it, because the fluctuation at the 3-5' in terms of price action are simply too wide for my comfort. Here too, I decided to impose a filter threshold, which could have been different for yet another trader, whose requirements for a WW might have been looser or stricter.

My point here is that pattern trading, or even pure price-based trading (i.e.: interpreting pinbar trading or traditional Japanese candle stick trading) leads to a very wide range of subjective interpretations as the trader layers on a personal context (e.g.: a need for a direction, a too simple or too complex an interpretation, or simply the often fact that the market does not always prints its directional intentions).

What I have turned to is simple system based trading.

Now, let me be clear here, because I am not talking about pure "IF/THEN" conditions. I am referring to using a trusted layered approach of objective system (IF/THEN: my predictive analysis and forecasting system), filtered by a layer of patterns I have developed and trusted (Wolfe Waves are ones I have learned, but also Great White/Janus/Euclid/Deep Shark are those I have discovered an kept unshared), and further filtered by a fundamental context in which an intended direction has to make sense for the world outside of my little trading mind.

In effect, the workflow of my trading goes a bit like:

Pure Objective IF/THEN system ---> Mixed Obj./Subjective price action interpretation ---> Fundamental world context

In the first realm, it all happens within the context of one computer. In the second, it strikes the higher interpretive system of the trader's brain and may or may not trigger a reaction to a pattern recognition, whereas in the third and last stage, the total subjective context is pitted against the world, as a delusional image that is expected to fit like a puzzle piece in the moving shapes of a flowing market.

This is why I say that trading is not about being right, but about staying with the market, much like Frank Lloyd Wright never expected his architectural designs to sit on the hill. He wanted it to be OF the hill. It's semantic, but one that can be costly if the market is misinterpreted.

A mistake I am prone to like any other mortal trader.


David Alcindor
04 APR 22014 - Chart Update/Tech-Note/Lesson:

Here we go, a triple top of sort. What the pattern trader might perceive here is a potential opportunity to short at the current level, as the pattern that just completed is named Kiss of Death - Following is the illustration:

I am not familiar with the success rate of this pattern, but I have been quite lucky with it at the time I would include in my pattern strat box. However, if price breaks above and closes above the second parabola's base line, then I would consider this a failed pattern, and it should put into question the entire trade opp I had laid down at the beginning.


David Alcindor
Since you are a Wolf Wave supporter, some food for thought. 1 h chart:

@KevinT - Although, the impulse waves you are showing may end up carving a new high, 1-3-5 have to come to alignment if the implied pattern were a WW.
KevinT 4xForecaster
I agree this 'WW' is fuzzy and doubtfull. That's why I posted it for a 2nd opinion.
But man! I was shock by the sudden outburst today!
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