So in this case, the market was telling me to WAIT a little longer. But what to wait for? If you follow my posts, you know that I will do "look ahead" studies to try to decipher what the market is saying. Here, what I have done is readjusted my wave count to better reflect what I think is happening and also "looked ahead" to see what if any pattern could help me to determine the likely entry point for a SHORT trade.
But why am I insisting that there will be a decline here when I am VERY on this pair and even still have 2 open LONG trades as well on this pair? well, nothing goes straight up. Especially in a corrective phase which I have been saying this pair has been in ever since it hit it's lows back in August. That this move up is only a wave 4 correction and we have not seen the bottom. Any corrective wave will have many ups and downs. As is the case here.
So this most recent leg up I am considering to be a wave 1 of an overall larger wave up. So if it is to be a wave 1, then it follows that there must be a wave 2 down, right? And that is what I am looking for to go SHORT and capture more pips. But REALLY, I will be intently watching the PA for this wave 2 down to see where it might end because.....the next move up would be naturally be a WAVE 3! This is why I am SO interested in this wave 2 retracement. Not only because I want to gain a few pips by going SHORT but I also want to try to be on the ground floor of the ensuing wave 3 up!
MY TRADE PLAN
I'm waiting for prices to show me a top here to complete the wave v of 1. So far, it hasn't done that yet. If prices were to go higher here and break above the point where I have marked to be the end of wave iii and gets to where I have the MIN C point of the to be, then that will be what I am looking for to happen before I will consider another SHORT trade. If prices don't get there and instead starts moving down, then I will not take any trade as this kind of action would again prove my count wrong and I will need to again re-assess the situation before making another move. If it does move down and again break my count, I may very well just skip the SHORT trade idea and just patiently wait for the end of the wave 2 retracement and look for a good opportunity to go LONG again.
Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade or ask for stop loss and take profit levels. Any SL or TP given on my trades are my own I have used for my trade and are not recommendations for you to use. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!
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I am still learning Elliot Wave Principle myself albeit it is my understanding that one of the rules is that Wave 4 can not retrace into the price territory of Wave 1; or in your case Wave iv can not retrace into the price territory of Wave i.
Would you say its too close to call or does it have to actually 'close' in the price territory?
Now in this case, I see why you would ask this question. I didn't make sure that my wave i and wave ii labels were in the proper positions before I posted this so it looks like wave iv is crossing into wave i on my chart. I assure you, it isn't. Sometimes the placement of the labels "shifts" when you go from one TF to another. Here is a "close-up" on the wave v so you can clearly see the wave labeling....
If you dont want to move there you could think about incorporating yourself there and paying yourself an income out of the company and then when you want to move back, move to Puerto Rico for 6 months and reclaim everything tax free