EverythingForex

AUDUSD: What I am waiting for to go short

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar
1954 30 41
I wanted to post this so as to let everyone know what I am looking for now in this pair after the recent failed trade I took which cost me -18 pips (see Related Ideas: "CLOSED TRADE: AUDUSD: SELL@.70712 SL Hit -18 pips"). In that trade idea, although the setup looked great, it failed. But as with all failures, you can learn something from it. What the price action was telling me by busting my trade idea, my wave count and the pretty patterns I drew was that it wasn't yet ready to retrace. If you LISTEN to what the market is telling you, then you can make better trades.

So in this case, the market was telling me to WAIT a little longer. But what to wait for? If you follow my posts, you know that I will do "look ahead" studies to try to decipher what the market is saying. Here, what I have done is readjusted my wave count to better reflect what I think is happening and also "looked ahead" to see what if any pattern could help me to determine the likely entry point for a SHORT trade.

But why am I insisting that there will be a decline here when I am VERY BULLISH on this pair and even still have 2 open LONG trades as well on this pair? well, nothing goes straight up. Especially in a corrective phase which I have been saying this pair has been in ever since it hit it's lows back in August. That this move up is only a wave 4 correction and we have not seen the bottom. Any corrective wave will have many ups and downs. As is the case here.

So this most recent leg up I am considering to be a wave 1 of an overall larger wave up. So if it is to be a wave 1, then it follows that there must be a wave 2 down, right? And that is what I am looking for to go SHORT and capture more pips. But REALLY, I will be intently watching the PA for this wave 2 down to see where it might end because.....the next move up would be naturally be a WAVE 3! This is why I am SO interested in this wave 2 retracement. Not only because I want to gain a few pips by going SHORT but I also want to try to be on the ground floor of the ensuing wave 3 up!

MY TRADE PLAN
I'm waiting for prices to show me a top here to complete the wave v of 1. So far, it hasn't done that yet. If prices were to go higher here and break above the point where I have marked to be the end of wave iii             and gets to where I have the MIN C point of the cypher to be, then that will be what I am looking for to happen before I will consider another SHORT trade. If prices don't get there and instead starts moving down, then I will not take any trade as this kind of action would again prove my count wrong and I will need to again re-assess the situation before making another move. If it does move down and again break my count, I may very well just skip the SHORT trade idea and just patiently wait for the end of the wave 2 retracement and look for a good opportunity to go LONG again.

*DISCLAIMER:
Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade or ask for stop loss and take profit levels. Any SL or TP given on my trades are my own I have used for my trade and are not recommendations for you to use. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!

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Darenth
a year ago
Always exciting waves of the artist.
+1 Reply
BIG Like. +1
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Miltonfx
a year ago
Bull Shark ?


Hello
What you think about this my targets?
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Miltonfx Miltonfx
a year ago
Best see this link to reflesh the updates

Bull Shark ?
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EverythingForex PRO Miltonfx
a year ago
Sorry, I don't trade this pair.so I can't comment on your targets without doing an analysis on it.
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Hey mate; always love the analysis!

I am still learning Elliot Wave Principle myself albeit it is my understanding that one of the rules is that Wave 4 can not retrace into the price territory of Wave 1; or in your case Wave iv can not retrace into the price territory of Wave i.

Would you say its too close to call or does it have to actually 'close' in the price territory?
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EverythingForex PRO izogawa_trading
a year ago
Yes, one of the rules of Elliott Wave Theory is that wave 4's cannot cross into the price territory of wave1's. EXCEPT in highly leveraged trading instruments. Elliott himself said that his "rules" only apply to CASH-based instruments. He said nothing more than that. Which left an open-ended question that we are left to figure out and apply ourselves. Having said that, it is a very, very RARE time that anyone including myself will ever label a wave 4 crossing into the wave 1. Not closed into it. Even touching it by a little bit. Usually, when I see that my labeling will violate this rule, I will seek another way to label the waves.

Now in this case, I see why you would ask this question. I didn't make sure that my wave i and wave ii labels were in the proper positions before I posted this so it looks like wave iv is crossing into wave i on my chart. I assure you, it isn't. Sometimes the placement of the labels "shifts" when you go from one TF to another. Here is a "close-up" on the wave v so you can clearly see the wave labeling....
snapshot
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izogawa_trading EverythingForex
a year ago
Ah gotcha! Thanks mate.
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TTCSteve
a year ago
Thanks EF, am mostly in agreement. My larger question is whether we have a long term bottom already in place (X of a large triple zigzag with this beginning Z wave up towards 120) or we still have this back and forth in some wave 4's to find another bottom before the X is in place. 74 and 80 being my larger resistance zones of note....a wave 2 such as you're looking at sure would represent some good opportunity in the short-medium term
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EverythingForex PRO TTCSteve
a year ago
It's best if you were to show me a chart of what you are seeing. I'd be interested in seeing your thoughts on a chart.
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TTCSteve EverythingForex
a year ago
the AUD is in twitter @TTCSteve they don't accept outside charts here
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EverythingForex PRO TTCSteve
a year ago
Yeah, unfortunately, I'm in China and twitter is blocked here. I could use VPN to access but it's a pain in the *ss to do so.
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TTCSteve EverythingForex
a year ago
fair enough, if you want you can skype me at swellsup
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EverythingForex PRO TTCSteve
a year ago
This may sound stupid and it is....but I don't use Skype either. It's not blocked here in China BUT the reason why is because Skype has an "agreement" with China government in order to be able to operate here in China that allows them to record and monitor all conversations that occur in China. And of course, forex trading is "officially" still banned in China. Being that I am an expat, I don't need to give them any reason whatsoever to boot me out of the country or worse! LOL! So, I'm limited in terms of using any kind of social media other than what's allowed. That is why for the time being, I only post here.
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izogawa_trading EverythingForex
a year ago
Plus the f*cking Chinese government taxes you on global income unless you did your tax break. Which city are you in? I live in Shanghai
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EverythingForex PRO izogawa_trading
a year ago
I'm in Dongguan in Guangdong province. I'm an expat. But, the US government does the same crap. I've got to pay taxes to them no matter where I make my money as well!
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SkyrEk EverythingForex
a year ago
Ever consider moving to a no capital tax gains country?
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izogawa_trading SkyrEk
a year ago
USA government doesn't care; they track us ANYWHERE we go.
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izogawa_trading EverythingForex
a year ago
Haven't been to Dongguan. I'm an American expat as well. Dont know what you do or your ability to move there but have you looked into Puerto Rico? As a follow up to SkyrEK's comment, its the ONLY place on the globe that the IRS does not have jurisdiction over Americans. Puerto Rico just passed Act 22 (which applies to investors) and Act 20 (which applies to companies).

+1 Reply
izogawa_trading izogawa_trading
a year ago
sorry clicked enter... heres a link http://puertoricotaxincentives.com/

If you dont want to move there you could think about incorporating yourself there and paying yourself an income out of the company and then when you want to move back, move to Puerto Rico for 6 months and reclaim everything tax free
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izogawa_trading izogawa_trading
a year ago
this is actually a really good video about all of it

http://www.internationalman.com/articles/puerto-rico-as-an-alternative-to-renunciation
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SkyrEk izogawa_trading
a year ago
Thank you for the information sobcza11. Learnt something new today. I guess being American means being tracked wherever you are.
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TTCSteve izogawa_trading
a year ago
certainly makes being an Aussie expat with no global income reach a nice thing....but shouldn't that be the norm? Or are we just servants of governments with one purpose....so much for taxation without representation
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EverythingForex PRO TTCSteve
a year ago
The IRS is heavily cracking down on "off-shore" tax havens. If you're an American citizen, they track you and your money as best they can. Only way to avoid being "taxed" is to just not let them know about it! But I already have my own "clean" way of avoiding all of that. Although my impending move back to the states will put a crimp in those plans. Hint: HK has ZERO tax on income not produced in HK.
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mr_d4
a year ago
So far this prediction is looking the goods - RBA no rate change hit that point pretty. Why a no rate change that was already priced in would do that is beyond me. But the price action from here will be interesting indeed. Massive kudos to you if you pull this one off
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EverythingForex PRO mr_d4
a year ago
When we as technical traders say that "the news has already been priced in", what is meant is that we already expected that prices would go up regardless of what the news says. As in this case...my chart already told me that prices would go up much before the RBA. That's what I meant when in my earlier post, I said that when prices negated my trade setup on the failed trade, the chart was telling me something. It's not that I knew what the RBA was going to be or what traders reaction to the RBA would be. The chart already knew. Just gotta be able to read the chart and understand what it is saying. This is why I trade just following the price action. I'm not prescient or anything. I just read the chart.
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mr_d4 EverythingForex
a year ago
Yep - pretty impressive - I must admit, I didn't think it was going to eventuate. Well done. Hope you grab a bundle on this leg, before the next one up
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thanhtruc1787
a year ago
aud-usd . i think it will be up trend strong..bulish break out
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EverythingForex PRO thanhtruc1787
a year ago
It's been in an uptrend. Now looking for a pullback.
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I'm long with a Williams Vix Fix - following Vstops (17/3) - too late to for new entry.
snapshot
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