AUDUSD: What I am waiting for to go short

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
1955 30 41
I wanted to post this so as to let everyone know what I am looking for now in this pair after the recent failed trade I took which cost me -18 pips (see Related Ideas: "CLOSED TRADE: AUDUSD: SELL@.70712 SL Hit -18 pips"). In that trade idea, although the setup looked great, it failed. But as with all failures, you can learn something from it. What the price action was telling me by busting my trade idea, my wave count and the pretty patterns I drew was that it wasn't yet ready to retrace. If you LISTEN to what the market is telling you, then you can make better trades.

So in this case, the market was telling me to WAIT a little longer. But what to wait for? If you follow my posts, you know that I will do "look ahead" studies to try to decipher what the market is saying. Here, what I have done is readjusted my wave count to better reflect what I think is happening and also "looked ahead" to see what if any pattern could help me to determine the likely entry point for a SHORT trade.

But why am I insisting that there will be a decline here when I am VERY BULLISH on this pair and even still have 2 open LONG trades as well on this pair? well, nothing goes straight up. Especially in a corrective phase which I have been saying this pair has been in ever since it hit it's lows back in August. That this move up is only a wave 4 correction and we have not seen the bottom. Any corrective wave will have many ups and downs. As is the case here.

So this most recent leg up I am considering to be a wave 1 of an overall larger wave up. So if it is to be a wave 1, then it follows that there must be a wave 2 down, right? And that is what I am looking for to go SHORT and capture more pips. But REALLY, I will be intently watching the PA for this wave 2 down to see where it might end because.....the next move up would be naturally be a WAVE 3! This is why I am SO interested in this wave 2 retracement. Not only because I want to gain a few pips by going SHORT but I also want to try to be on the ground floor of the ensuing wave 3 up!

I'm waiting for prices to show me a top here to complete the wave v of 1. So far, it hasn't done that yet. If prices were to go higher here and break above the point where I have marked to be the end of wave iii             and gets to where I have the MIN C point of the cypher to be, then that will be what I am looking for to happen before I will consider another SHORT trade. If prices don't get there and instead starts moving down, then I will not take any trade as this kind of action would again prove my count wrong and I will need to again re-assess the situation before making another move. If it does move down and again break my count, I may very well just skip the SHORT trade idea and just patiently wait for the end of the wave 2 retracement and look for a good opportunity to go LONG again.

Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade or ask for stop loss and take profit levels. Any SL or TP given on my trades are my own I have used for my trade and are not recommendations for you to use. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!

If you like my posts and find them helpful, please take a second to hit that LIKE button and follow me so I will know my posts are useful to you. Doing so will encourage me to post more! As always, all constructive comments are welcome. Agree or disagree.
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I'm long with a Williams Vix Fix - following Vstops (17/3) - too late to for new entry.
aud-usd . i think it will be up trend strong..bulish break out
EverythingForex thanhtruc1787
It's been in an uptrend. Now looking for a pullback.
+1 Reply
So far this prediction is looking the goods - RBA no rate change hit that point pretty. Why a no rate change that was already priced in would do that is beyond me. But the price action from here will be interesting indeed. Massive kudos to you if you pull this one off
When we as technical traders say that "the news has already been priced in", what is meant is that we already expected that prices would go up regardless of what the news says. As in this case...my chart already told me that prices would go up much before the RBA. That's what I meant when in my earlier post, I said that when prices negated my trade setup on the failed trade, the chart was telling me something. It's not that I knew what the RBA was going to be or what traders reaction to the RBA would be. The chart already knew. Just gotta be able to read the chart and understand what it is saying. This is why I trade just following the price action. I'm not prescient or anything. I just read the chart.
+1 Reply
mr_d4 EverythingForex
Yep - pretty impressive - I must admit, I didn't think it was going to eventuate. Well done. Hope you grab a bundle on this leg, before the next one up
Thanks EF, am mostly in agreement. My larger question is whether we have a long term bottom already in place (X of a large triple zigzag with this beginning Z wave up towards 120) or we still have this back and forth in some wave 4's to find another bottom before the X is in place. 74 and 80 being my larger resistance zones of note....a wave 2 such as you're looking at sure would represent some good opportunity in the short-medium term
It's best if you were to show me a chart of what you are seeing. I'd be interested in seeing your thoughts on a chart.
TTCSteve EverythingForex
the AUD is in twitter @TTCSteve they don't accept outside charts here
Yeah, unfortunately, I'm in China and twitter is blocked here. I could use VPN to access but it's a pain in the *ss to do so.
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