AUDUSD: Longer term charts might indicate a downtrend
There's a discrepancy between timeframes in $AUDUSD, with the daily recently turning into a downtrend, after suggesting buying dips was viable all year; the weekly in an uptrend, and close to fail to confirm bearish momentum within 2 weeks; and the monthly indicating a full flung downtrend is en route, and it should eventually achieve the 0.63111 mark by or before the end of December 2017.
In the short term, the daily chart despite indicating bears are in control, might indicate a retracement or sideways consolidation is about to start, specially viable after we hit the second target, and/or when time for the daily downtrend runs out by January 3rd.
RgMov warns you in the daily, if you wish to go long to catch a retracement, because price might just go sideways, chopping buyers and sellers out for a while, so it will be easier to take the sell side only, either after an overbought rally in the daily, or after a sideways consolidation ends.
(I prefer to do nothing for now, but, if you're interested in going long, you can try to buy a new daily high, risking a drop under last week's low)
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie
In the short term, the daily chart despite indicating bears are in control, might indicate a retracement or sideways consolidation is about to start, specially viable after we hit the second target, and/or when time for the daily downtrend runs out by January 3rd.
RgMov warns you in the daily, if you wish to go long to catch a retracement, because price might just go sideways, chopping buyers and sellers out for a while, so it will be easier to take the sell side only, either after an overbought rally in the daily, or after a sideways consolidation ends.
(I prefer to do nothing for now, but, if you're interested in going long, you can try to buy a new daily high, risking a drop under last week's low)
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie
Comment:
Some relative strength information, look how badly $AUDUSD underperformed copper and steel...it didn't act strongly at all, compared to these two commodities. This tells us there is weakness in the background, since it never managed to catch up, and it continues to underperform due to the dollar's strength.
Comment:
Comparing SPY to AUDUSD and JPYUSD paints a vivid picture of what's going on:
Right before the US presidential election the US stock market started to move independently of $AUDUSD and $JPYUSD, which were seeing strength when the dollar weakened, previously, probably indicating that there's international inflows coming to the US, due to relative strength of the US' economy, compared to the rest of the world, and, there's probably a change of trends, regarding risk aversion, at least in the intermediate term.
Right before the US presidential election the US stock market started to move independently of $AUDUSD and $JPYUSD, which were seeing strength when the dollar weakened, previously, probably indicating that there's international inflows coming to the US, due to relative strength of the US' economy, compared to the rest of the world, and, there's probably a change of trends, regarding risk aversion, at least in the intermediate term.
Comment:
This could be the top of this rally.
This could be the top of this rally.