ATLANTA FED GDPNOW 1Q’22 GROWTH ESTIMATE
Based on the data received thus far about 1Q’22, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth forecast is now at +1.3% annualized, down from +1.5% on February 16. The downgrade was a result of “the nowcast of first-quarter real residential investment growth decreased from +4.7% to +0.3%.”
The next update to the 1Q’22 Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth forecast is due on Friday, February 25 after the January US personal income and spending data.
RATE HIKES ARE COMING, THAT’S CERTAIN
Expectations for a March rate hike have crystallized. We can measure whether a Fed rate hike is being priced-in using Eurodollar contracts by examining the difference in borrowing costs for commercial banks over a specific time horizon in the future. Chart 2 below showcases the difference in borrowing costs – the spread – for the March 2022 and December 2023 contracts, in order to gauge where interest rates are headed by December 2023.
AUD/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
At the time of writing, AUD/USD is currently trading within a well-defined range between 0.7000 and 0.7300 respectively which continues to hold both bulls and bears at bay. With a descending trendline suggesting that the bear trend currently remains intact, the 0.700 handle has thus far assisted in providing a solid foundation of support for the short-term move.
As prices cling to the 61.8% retracement level of the 2017 – 2020 move at 0.71335, the next level of support remains at the January low of 0.696 with resistance holding at the 23.6% Fibo level of 2021 – 2022 move.
Based on the data received thus far about 1Q’22, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth forecast is now at +1.3% annualized, down from +1.5% on February 16. The downgrade was a result of “the nowcast of first-quarter real residential investment growth decreased from +4.7% to +0.3%.”
The next update to the 1Q’22 Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth forecast is due on Friday, February 25 after the January US personal income and spending data.
RATE HIKES ARE COMING, THAT’S CERTAIN
Expectations for a March rate hike have crystallized. We can measure whether a Fed rate hike is being priced-in using Eurodollar contracts by examining the difference in borrowing costs for commercial banks over a specific time horizon in the future. Chart 2 below showcases the difference in borrowing costs – the spread – for the March 2022 and December 2023 contracts, in order to gauge where interest rates are headed by December 2023.
AUD/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
At the time of writing, AUD/USD is currently trading within a well-defined range between 0.7000 and 0.7300 respectively which continues to hold both bulls and bears at bay. With a descending trendline suggesting that the bear trend currently remains intact, the 0.700 handle has thus far assisted in providing a solid foundation of support for the short-term move.
As prices cling to the 61.8% retracement level of the 2017 – 2020 move at 0.71335, the next level of support remains at the January low of 0.696 with resistance holding at the 23.6% Fibo level of 2021 – 2022 move.