4xForecaster
Long

#Aussie Defines Sturdy Base; Remains Bullish | $AUD #RBA #forex

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar
Friends,

#RBA rate cuts to historic low did nothing to interdict price's sustained rally towards targets defined this past January 2015 (see original analysis here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AUDUSD/ED19iYof-Hi/#tc129605 )

Hence, the following targets remain in force:

1 - TG-1 = 0.84131- 05 MAY 2015

2 - TG-Hi = 0.86144 - 10 JAN 2015

and

3 - TG-Hix = 0.95025 - 10 JAN 2015


Also defined within the field is a "Bullish Entrenchment" zone, defined by the range 0.76483-to-0.7540. If tests, this range would impose the strongest bull ripost - These are illustrated in the following chart:


snapshot


Following is a social media release update, one of many as price offers technically relevant event:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$AUDUSD January forecast remains in force; New proximal quant-target defined per core geo             ; Bullish:

snapshot


$AUD $USD #RBA
----------


Stay tuned,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


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emre PRO
2 years ago
David, what do you think about this geometry forming on H4 chart?
snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO emre
2 years ago
@emre - I think that you are getting good at seeing it.

MIT-TERM:

Now, expect price to decline significantly, from current Point-4 level to a mean defined by the base of the second higher low (circa 75500) to 0.78250 - This mean is an important hidden geometry ... Expect it to express itself, as it is likely to offer support to further advances, later on.


LONG-TEM:

No change in original forecast from this past January.

If you look at the DAILY chart, the core of an occult geometry has already been validated at its 50% mark (Modular Core). As price continues to built energy, it will coil into smaller systems, one of which is represented by the geo you have correctly outlined - Following is the daily view:


snapshot



Price is no more a leading pixel on the chart than a herd of cattle is to the pasture. It is where the feeds are dropped that leads the bovine to the point, just as the geometry is dropped and submits price to its coordinates. Without this assumption, there would be no forecast, and the Model would be wrong most of the times.

In a different way of seeing this, price has a gait, a stride and a pace. It is the skeletal structure of the geometry that gives it a pre-definable point onto which it will step. That step is the forecast, and the muscle group that leads it there is the net volition of the market. In this system, there is no offer, no demand, as we now know that these concepts are absurd and ignorant of HFT systems, so-called black boxes, and self-fulfiling programs that depend on Fibonacci conjugation.

Thinking otherwise still won't emancipate us from the free-range feeding fields of the slaughter houses. But knowing the footsteps of your bourreau can save you in the back of the line.


David Alcindor
+5 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
8 MAY 2015

$AUDUSD

Hi David. Is this possible WW probable with such a unconventional 2-4 Line?
snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
2 years ago
@iefan - There are TWO geos I am following in this chart.

The LARGER of the two is the one you have defined in it, although I placed Point-1 at the higher structure that precedes your pt-1.

The SMALLER of the two can be best appreciated in the H1 level. To find it, simple seek the spike below your pt-3 and mark it as Point-1. Then, Point-2 as the low preceding your pt-4; next is the recent spike preceding your pt-4, marking Point-3 of that smaller geo. Finally, both pt-4 of the LARGER geo and Point-4 of the smaller coincide, which is likely to potentiate a support at that level.

So, the 1-3 Line of the SMALLER geo should be a smoother slope compared to the LARGER geo, and I expect that this smaller 1-3 Line might be exceeded and meet resistance at the Point-3 of the larger geo, playing out a nature ab=cd inner symmetry.

Of note, you might notice that the mid-spike in the larger geo, connecting points 2 and 3, will likely play as a Geo Anchor. This should also help you correct your current Point-4, which might instead be placed at the preceding structure-low. In any case, this would not disrupt the current geometric development that is occurring in the interplay between the larger and smaller geos.

The Bullish Entrenchment will remain in force and will offer a probable support, if and once price returns. For now, all eyes should be looking up and up, with an intermediate decline, paced by the inner, SMALLER geo.


David
+1 Reply
G_Man 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hi David, I've been expecting a return to the blue, but wondering if you think the red line now holds more significance, or the dashed red even:

thanks



snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO G_Man
2 years ago
@Gary_The_Astronaut,

If you look at the total construction, the first geo that comes to sight is that which is defined in BLACK lines. I would not necessarily follow this one, as the 1-4 Line is simply too steep for my liking, even though it conforms to the overall geometric construction rule, and the "Tunneling" is quite present.

If it turns out to be the right pattern, I would still chose to not trade it, simply because of a less probable target offered by too steep of a 1-4 Line.

Now, looking at an alternative, I would apply further discretionary rules to the developing geo, one of which is the "Geo Anchor" rule. Simply put, this rule is something that I have added as a condition of geo confirmation, whereby an inflection, often at mid-point of the 2-3 leg, will offer a probable anchor point for the developing geo and its subsequent 1-4 Line.

Now, looking at your pattern, there are several crippling features that will simply impose the biggest barrier to discovering the early inkling of a geo. To start, I would remove any internal lines that cut through price. In your chart, I am referring to the two red lines. It does not matter whether you can dissociate these lines relative to one pattern or another. The "crippling" idea here is that every time you are looking for a pattern, it will become a matter of cognitive instruction, or a "chiseling of the pattern", engraving not the outline, but the movement of price. Any lines will prevent you from unconsciously registering that which your brain will later see before you see it, which is the "mind's eyes" concept I often refer to.

Next, I would always ask myself whether the pattern I am about to post has the first rule in check, which is that both 1-3 and 2-4 Line have to be tilted in the same direction. Here, looking at your purple lines, they are moving in opposite directions. Hence, this is not about to reveal much, except some other geometries of lesser probability and lesser forecasting values.

One way to approach this is to simply recognize that there are higher highs - forget about the higher lows for now. Since the higher-highs points to a rising line, that line becomes the instrument with which to define your geo, which is simply the 1-3 Line.

Once the 1-3 Line is in place, then look for the lowest low as Point-2 and see whether a convergence from Point-2 can bring it towards the 1-3 Line, and pass to validate a higher-low, or Point-4.

The following chart is what I would look for development:


snapshot



Is this helping at all?


David
+2 Reply
G_Man 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Thanks David, I rushed that out earlier. My analysis was telling me more down but I have read your reply to iefan above and will go through things more carefully and head back to the drawing board :)

I can see the support now around the 4 point of iefan's chart, as you explained there may be.
+1 Reply
G_Man 4xForecaster
2 years ago
will definitely have to take the time to read your previous posts in more detail, but here's an attempt at what you've outlined above:

possible outcomes in dashed blue arrow, is this correct?

how do I identify possible resting places or trajectories towards/for the 5 or 5'?

snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO G_Man
2 years ago
@Gary_The_Astronaut, this looks great.

Adjusting the 1-4 Line using the midpoint inflection between pt-2 and pt-3 will improve your aim once you seek taking profit as price falls from the 1-3 Line after creating pt-5, and rolls towards the 1-4 Line, which is the Take-Profit line upon its validation.

David
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
@Gary_The_Astronaut - The inner geo is not correct:

The 1-3 Line can not be tilted down and the entire geo developing below. A balance has to occur, where a down-tilting 1-3 Line creates a geo above it, and vice-versa.

However, from the pt-3 of the large geo, you can find a smaller inflection at the left of the smaller pt-3, and this will offer a perfect level from which to project a smaller pt-1.

David
+1 Reply
G_Man 4xForecaster
2 years ago
thanks, adjusted:

snapshot



what sort of likelyhood is there that the smaller geo exercises it's will in this case the price heads towards the target defined by that smaller 1-4 line?

also, is there a way I can know at what angle and what target to place my speculative price lines towards my speculative 5 or 5' points?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO G_Man
2 years ago
@Gary_The_Astronaut,

First, here is the plots are was referring to in relation to your smaller geo. As drawn, the smaller of the 1-3 Line remains tilted upwards, allowing its geo to developed underneath.

Now, still looking at the smaller geo, there is yet no assurance that its Point-4 is completed. It could fall further below, and even be defined along the 1-4 Line of the larger geo. In such a good probability, it would simply potentiate price via a "force-multiplier" gained from an overlap in the geo's respective Point-4, which the the point of departure towards the last leg before completion of the basic 1-2-3-4-5 construct.


snapshot



Now, looking at the larger geo, I have purposefully defined a small segment of a larger consolidation, or Elliott Wave correction ("COR"), in which the sub-segment is an Elliott Wave impulse ("IMP"). That impulse has a requirement, which is an internal construction of 5 waves, defined in the chart as encased numbers in BLUE.

This is NOT a contradiction to the Elliott Wave rule in relation to the geo, which I have established and defined several times before, since here we are dealing with a small, internal IMP segment within a COR.

If this is getting complicated, it's because it is. When dealing with the geos, I have establish before that this can ONLY be taking place within a milieu of price consolidation. When a consolidation takes place right after an IMP, applying the "Spine" method to separate IMP from COR is a very simple exercise, and in this case, we are dealing with a complex COR of a much larger IMP that just concluded ... Simply look at the DAILY chart, and you will see where the IMP ends, and the COR begins. The COR is where we hunt for these Geo's.


snapshot



If you are not familiar with basic Elliott Wave principles ("EWP"), go to www.ElliottWave.com, register your name and get their free printed lesson and many examples. No disrespect to other in this and other communities trying to teach this subject, but they too had to go to that site or receive lessons from one of its authoritative source, and then spit it back into sometimes erroneous interpretations.

To get the original lessons free of charge, simply drink from the spring that feeds the well, rather than getting it from other teacher's soup.

This goes the same with Wolfe Wave. What I share with you are discoveries or refinements that I have made from Wolfe Waves without getting the lessons from the author, but simply dissecting the Wolfe Wave pattern using the methods that led me to discover my own proprietary patterns (Great White, Janus, Euclidean, Alt. Shark, ... and other esoteric, occult market geometries). But the real lessons about Wolfe Waves cannot be gleaned from me, as I have never been taught, nor do I know anything more than what has been generously shared under Mr. Bill Wolfe own authorship, as he presents his pattern freely on his site: www.WolfeWave.com.

I could go one and one with other patterns, such as Scott Carney (www.HarmonicTrader.com / www.HarmonicTrading.com), although these patterns are now so overused that they simply have lost the precision I seek in tip-top/bottom-tip reversals, that I do not nor do I recommend to use them, unless you seek further entanglement and layering that will muddle the simplicity of simpler market geometries, one of which is the Geo and the refined rules I have established and shared freely.

Sorry for this tangent, but I cannot emphasize too much how important it is to read from the light bulb, rather than grasp distorted concepts from the shadow which it casts diffusely.


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
G_Man 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Thanks very much David, it's starting to make sense.

Yes I've visited the various websites you have linked, although in some respects it's been a case of trying to learn everything all at once and probably grasping at concepts. That said I've read "wave principle" by Pretcher as well as some other titles, and have looked at the basic wolfe wave info out there, part of it is about just spending time with ideas as they settle and you make the neuronal connections in your mind that allow you to see the links between things. Part of what is great about this site (tradeview) is the learning by doing aspect. Being surrounded by traders and methodologies and patterns one can't help but learn by osmosis. Filtering the noise is the hard part.

I like the elegant simplicity of your shapes, although I realise that there are some more complex layers beneath. I'll keep playing and read some more of your previous posts to get to grips with your rules/guidelines. I hope you don't mind me posting the odd misguided chart though ;)
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO G_Man
2 years ago
@Gary_The_Astronaut,

I do not mind at all your posting charts and queries, as long as it's kept public, so that it may benefit others. Plus, your questions are likely to speak for other traders curious about the Geo.

The Geo, and at the core of it the Wolfe Wave (www.WolfeWave.com) are really the simplest and the most consistent and predictable patterns I can think of. I have been trading since 1997, joine groups, taught, did years of research and writing blogs, and there is no other geometry than the Wolfe Wave I would ever want to spend time with.

I often say that if you encounter a person who steps out of a room and advises you to not enter that room, and you are still curious about things, then be curious about everything else but what is in that room.

The point here is that one cannot live long enough to learn from all the personal mistakes on is bound ot make. However, one can heed other persons' experiences and advices, and be just that much more ahead of things. I learned a long time ago that most patterns are not worth my time, but that is because I concentrated on high-accuracy trading with tip-top and bottom-tip reversals. I have since defined a model that does that ("Predictive?Forecasting Model") which I use in the foreground of all of my predictive analyses, but since I can't share this, as a background to my analyses, I use market geometries to bring some sense to the readers/students. All I can say is that the closes market geometry that has adhered to the Model is the Wolfe Wave.

Since then, I have dissected it into its part to derive more predictable and defining features. So, long story short: Stick to this pattern (Wolfe Wave), and continually compare it to Scott Carney's Bat, Shark, 5-0, and other classicals, and see how it compares. In my experience, this pattern occurs more frequently, offers a consistent, tangible and immutable point of entry (Point-5) and target (1-4 Line) with a precise and objective Stop-Loss (structure preceding Point-5).

Any other patterns have too wide a termination level at Point-D. Seeking consistency in termination level, and a consistent reversal with a clear path, objective and risk definition is what the Wolfe Wave offers.

Any more sophistication that I have queried into this pattern is simply a matter of academic research that I conduct as a head-to-head with my predictive model, and therefore, there remains no reason to make it any more complicated than two convergent lines heading in the same direction, which is really what the WW depends upon.

Nothing more, Nothing less.

I am very glad that you are enjoying this pattern.


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
13 MAY 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$AUDUSD completed internal Geo as forecast; Larger Geo underway; Reversal imminent:

snapshot


$AUD $USD #RBA #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
13 MAY 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
---------
$AUDUSD validates ectopic Point-5; Off-Set Rule calls for 0.79193/0.78862 support/target:

snapshot


$AUD $USD #RBA #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
15 MAY 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$AUDUSD rolls as forecast; Eyeing 0.79193 as small geo first target; 1-4 Line of larger geo:

snapshot


$AUD $USD #RBA #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
19 MAY 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$AUDUSD continues to roll as forecast; Next: Eyes bullish entrenchment at 0.79193:

snapshot


$AUD $USD #RBA $XAU #forex
-----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
19 MAY 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$AUDUSD reached targeted support per Off-Set Rule, as forecast; Rallying probable from here:

snapshot


$AUD $USD #RBA #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
20 MAY 2015 - Update:

Watch for significant support at 0.78831:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
20 MAY 2015 - Update:

Price hit 0.78831 dead-on ... A rallying from here towards loftier target could occur at this discreet level - See chart:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
28 MAY 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$AUDUSD hit its wolfe Wave's 1-4 Line; Stomped at Bullish Entrenchment Zone; Bullish:

snapshot


$AUD #RBA $USD $XAU #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
28 MAY 2015 - TECH-NOTE:

The mixture of Wolfe Wave and Bullish Entrenchment is turning this situation into a high-probability rallying. The prior rallying expected at the thinner support (defined by the "Off-Set Rule" from the smaller Geo, only temporized the recent decline. Wha tis remarkable here is the resiliency of the Wolfe Wave (larger pattern) to complete its cycle at its 1-4 Line. I did not trade the further decline (only from the green square to the first support zone), but a rallying at this current level is now becoming a potential prospect.

I remain on vacation and check the charts from time to time. Taking a few moments to update some of the charts where a geometric cycle has completed.

Have a fantastic week-end.

Best,


David Alcindor
+4 Reply
02 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$AUDUSD completed its Geo cycle; Bulls held price > forecast range; If > 0.79193, opens to TG-1:

snapshot


$AUD #RBA $USD
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
06 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$AUDUSD: After a successful WW completion, bullish trench remains in force; Model still bullish:

snapshot


$AUD $USD #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
10 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$AUDUSD remained buoyant above bear trench as forecast; Bullish target remains intact:

snapshot


$AUD $CHF #RBA #SNB #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
15 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$AUDUSD rests > bullish trench as forecast; Predictive Model still bullish; Price eyes 0.78179:

snapshot


$AUD $USD #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+4 Reply
28 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

From Tiwtter/LinkedIn:
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$AUDUSD completes a KoD; Nascent GEo remains supportive of Model's bullish forecast:

snapshot


$AUD $USD #RBA #forex
----------


snapshot


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
02 JUL 2017 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$AUDUSD falls under sustained bearish pressure to 1-3 Line; Nears geometric completion:

snapshot


$AUD $USD #RBA #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
02 JUL 2014 - Tech-Note:

1 - Note how price was able to confirm the pre-determined Point-4 of the Geo:

snapshot


snapshot



2 - Also, note how alignment of points 1, 3 and 5 wold completed a Kiss of Death ("KoD").

It would be within the acceptable range of the geometry for price to fall further, in the range that would validate the 2-4 Line transposed off of Point-3 (i.e.: an ectopic Point-5, namely: Point-5')


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
02 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$AUDUSD commits to 1-3 Line validation, completes Wolfe Wave; 5' remains possible; Model still bullish:

snapshot


$AUD #RBA
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
07 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/Linked:
----------
$AUDUSD nears 0.72716 bearish target as commodities continue to decline further:

snapshot


$AUD $USD #gold $GLD $JNUG $NUGT
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
16 JUL 2016 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$AUDUSD aligns #fibonacci's 1.414 extension with Predictive Model's 0.72716 target:

snapshot


$AUD $USD #RBA #gold #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
a year ago
Metals are waiting for this move?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Sokun
a year ago
@Sokun - Not sure what you mean to ask - David
+1 Reply
24 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$AUDUSD hit target; Forecast still in force w/ limited downside; Reversal to Pt-4 expected per Geo's OffSet Rule:

snapshot

----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
24 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$AUDUSD - Weekly Chart: Hit Target; Consider this larger "Geo" as Point-4 remains pending:

snapshot


$AUD $USD #RBA #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+4 Reply
02 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$AUDUSD - 7th daily bar remains buoyant above hit target; Bulls are holding trench war line:

snapshot


$AUD $USD $GLD #gold
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
02 AUG 2015 - ADDENDUM:

Here is an adjusted WEEKLY chart - This remains HIGHLY speculative. As with any similar developing geometries, Point-4 remains a moving target, which can only be best approximated with the use of a Geo-Anchor method and "Tunneling":


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
03 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
-----------
$AUDUSD - WEEKLY chart highlights significant bull entrenchment; Background geometry offers speculative support:

snapshot

-----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
06 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$AUDUSD remains bound to high-prob scenario; #fibonacci floor defined at 0.71426; Bears in charge:

snapshot


$AUD #RBA $USD
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
Hi David, just a noob question relating to the above chart and your comments, would I be correct in saying that you are expecting price to decline to the area marked by your green box? Thank you Iefan
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
a year ago
@iefan - The symbols are are are as follows:


1 - RED/GREEN BOXES:
- - A GREEN box indicates an area where a BACA rule should be applied to engage in a trade
- - A RED box represents the highest probability level of attainment, i.e.: target.

2 - CURVED ARROWS:
- - A solid arrow represents a higher probability of price pathway in terms of going up/down first, then down/up second, ... etc - Here, I expected price to go down first, then up following the SOLID arrow, which it did.
- - A dashed arrow represents a lesser probability of a price pathway - Here, the DASHED arrow suggest the lesser probability that price would attain a lower level of attainment, which it did not.

3 - STRAIGHT ARROWS:
These arrows simply show the overall expected direction. The start of the arrow might be associated with a GREEN box, but as long as BACA does not occur, then a position cannot be considered, even if the straight arrow still represents where price would probably go if and once BACA occurs.

A RED box associated with a straight arrow simply points to the highest probability of attainment, i.e.: target.

I have decided to not use the colors red, yellow and green any more, which would represent a vanishing probability. BACA is a more objective and verifiable condition.


David
+3 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
@David, thank you very much, this is excellent!

I don't want to belabour the point ( OCD issues :-) ) and become tiresome but could you help me clarify the BACA rule relating to the Green Box?

I'll use your recent Trade Idea published on the GBPAUD pair to illustrate my question. In the chart below I have zoomed in on the Green Box. So do you enter short when price BACA in the Green Box area? Why do you need price to BACA in the Green Box area, why not enter short the moment price enters the Green Box area?

Or do I have it wrong and you only enter short when price BACA the edge of your Green Box in the direction of the intended trade, in this case a short trade? Please see image below for the 2 scenarios.

snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
a year ago
Hello, @iefan,

The GREEN box refers to a static value (in the case of a horizontal line), or a dynamic value (in the case of a diagonal line) along which a bar or candle is expected to give its signal once it reaks cross + loses cross. This implies that a trade is entered at the open of the bar/candle following the met condition.

A more aggressive stance would suggest to take position (partial or whole) at the hit of the level defined by the GREEN box.

Here are a few examples:

1 - In the case of a static value, BACA is simply a matter of waiting for a bar that meets the condition along a horizontal target level. If price rises and a BACA is defined to get SHORT, then an entry is defined at the open of next candle the open in the intended direction and not before. This means that price may rise further, but only once it breaks across that level defined by the GREEN box and after it closes across it (i.e.: market commits to a probable reversal tithe down side in the particular example), that a BACA condition is met.

2 - In the case of a dynamic level, say along a 3-5' (which is the most common development of a Geo, followed by a true WW, then by a 1-5", just as an aside info on these geometries), a GREEN box does NOT define the price level at which a BACA condition awaits to be met. Instead, the GREEN box refers to that particular diagonal line.

If for instance price rose from a Point-4, crosses the 1-3 Line of a Geo, then rallied further, you would naturally expect that it is on its way to define the commonest geometry via an ectopic Point-5 at 5'. Once a bar or candle hits that line, the aggressive trader may consider an entry (a short position in this particular case), either whole or partial. The more conservative trader needs to wait for the open of next candle to short.

At times, the dynamic level example will see a bar tip top or candle upper shadow hit the line defined by the GREEN box without a crossing across. This remains a valid signal to get short, but it is at the discretion of the trader to treat the condition as good enough to short or wait. A tipping of a bar or candle might be all there is to a signal.

The examples above are particular since they represent cases where price is expected to return back into the territory whence it comes from. Clearer conditions exist once price simply has to cross a level and continue forward. In such cases, BACA should be straightforward.

Is this making things a bit clearer?


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
BTW, in the case of your magnified chart, entry would have occurred at the open of the third candle, candle #1 being the one hitting the diagonal 3-5' Line, whereas #2 is the BACA since the signal is a short condition and it commits to the downside of the 3-5' Line, whereas candle #3 is the one at which a short order is effected right as it opens.

David
+2 Reply
06 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$AUDUSD - WEEKLY Chart sits on historical structural floor; Bulls are holding ground:

snapshot


$AUD #RBA $GLD #gold #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+4 Reply
17 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$AUDUSD mulls a limited rally opp per Model; See recent $GLD for correlated pathway:

snapshot


$AUD $USD #RBA #aussie #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+4 Reply
30 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
Rallying in $AUDUSD likely corrective in #elliottwave terms:

snapshot


$AUD $USD #aussie #RBA #forex @4xforecaster
----------


David Alcindor
+5 Reply
08 SEP 2015 - Chart Update:

1 - Converted chart from Monthly to WEEKLY, so as to better appreciate internal waves
2 - Offered a lower point of termination for the dominant Elliott Wave Wave-4
3 - Incorporated 3 Elliott Wave degrees of internal wave analysis: Squared-In number, naked umber and lower Roman numeral


snapshot



OVERALL, the lower target and expected rallying into the 1-4 Line remains unchanged.

Best,


David Alcindor
+4 Reply
17 SEP 2015 - Chart Update:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+4 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
1 OCT 2015

AUDUSD

Hi David....spotted this Geo, price likely to decline to the Price Level of Point 4...right?
snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
a year ago
Hi, @iefan - Yes, very good.

There is a nodule in the 1-2 Leg whose core might project a support forward and backward. This appears to line up quite well with the Geo's Rule #2 (i.e.: level of Point-4 target).


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
28 Oct 2015

AUDUSD

Hi David

I just spotted this Geo. Is it thus probable that we will have a rally before a further decline as per ATHENA and the PF model?
snapshot
Reply
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