EverythingForex

Re-Analysis: AUDUSD: Getting Set For A Move Down Re-Visited!

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar
1009 2 29
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A few days ago, I posted a Major Update Analysis on this pair in which I suggested that we were about to see a MAJOR MOVE DOWN (see Related Ideas: Analysis: AUDUS D - Getting Ready to MOVE?) . Today, we just saw the beginning of that move. Just as predicted. Two days ago, I posted this POTENTIAL Bat on my website that got filled perfectly and then DOWN WE WENT! If you registered to my site for instant alerts, you would've been alerted to it! Here's the BEFORE and AFTER pictures:

AUDUSD Bat - Before
snapshot

AUDUSD Bat - After
snapshot

As you can see, after that Bat got filled, not long after, prices took a nosedive! Now for those of you who STILL do not believe in the power of patterns to divine future moves, well, I guess 1+1 does not equal 2 in your world!

But this post is not about what just happened. As in all my posts, it's about what is yet to happen. For that, let's go back to my last major analysis on this pair that I posted only a few days ago. I won't go into summarizing that because you can go read it for yourself here (AUDUSD: Getting Set For A Move Down?). But for ease of reference, I'll just post the relevant big picture view of that analysis here:

snapshot

And here is my new analysis (same time frame):

snapshot

See the difference? BIG difference, huh? This NEW analysis is now my preferred wave count and I will operate from this count until something proves it to be wrong. Let me explain why it is that I have did a 180 on what I am thinking will happen. For that, let's start from the very top and look at the MONTHLY chart:

MONTHLY CHART

In this monthly chart, you see that AUDUSD             has been in a free fall for the last 4 1/2 years. This is an impulse wave (A) retrace of the previous 5-waves up trend. This impulse wave is of the acceleration-type impulse so I am expecting a strong finish. However, notice that the ending wave (5) of (A) is an decelerating impulse wave so the last leg of that wave should not be too long. Should be the shortest of the 3 impulse waves in wave (5). But it also should not be slow to unfold but short and explosive as per the larger acceleration wave (A). There is also the matter of that very large POTENTIAL Alt Bat that is waiting to be filled right down there by the MAJOR Monthly SR and the .886 retracement level. So in summary of this monthly chart, what I am seeing is that the wave (5) should be coming to its' end soon.
snapshot

WEEKLY CHART

In this weekly view, you are looking at my revised wave count for the subwaves of the wave (A). Pay attention to the wave (5) of (A). The subwave breakdown is giving a BIG clue as to what is going to happen now. In Elliott waves , there is a guideline that is called the Theory of Alternation. Simply put, wave 2's and 4's have an inverse relationship in that if one is a zigzag, the other should be a flat and vice-versa. In this wave count, wave 2 was a zigzag. So therefore, wave 4 should be a flat. Which in this case, is true. By this count anyway. Never forget that this is just one count of many that are possible.

snapshot

Due to the post length restriction, I am unable to post the rest of the analysis here. Please follow this link to see the rest: http://goo.gl/Hd6Iuf
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Reply
AlexNguyen
9 months ago
Thank for your analys. I have a same view with you in this pair. You also can see the same signal in chart NZDUSD in the morning on last friday, Sell signal, so I think next weeks will be time for down trade with AUDUSD and NZDUSD.
Reply
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