Analysis: AUDUSD - Getting Ready to MOVE?

A very, very messy move up from the lows may be about to come to an end. Or maybe it already has. It’s so messy that really still can’t be too sure of anything. But I’m going to try to make sense of it here.

4HR CHART

There is a very clear double top formed between the two peaks from 2/04 and 2/23. Since the formation of the second top, prices had started to decline again. Although it appears on this chart that prices had decisively broken the upper MAJOR TL of a triangle, if you were to look at higher TF’s, you’d see that in fact, prices were rejected. And in this TF, it was a false break with prices quickly dropping back below the TL. Prices again challenged the TL today and were again rejected. We are almost at the very tip of this triangle now and decisions about this pairs long term future must be made. But for now, there is still some small room to fill.

Wave Count

So this was a very, very complicated wave count to make and still it seems somewhat tenuous. Basically, what we have here is a 5-wave wave A of (C) and this wave A has a rare truncated 5th wave. That 5th wave also being a ending contracting diagonal. Told you it was complicated! Yes, it can be disputed and can be labeled another way but as I’ve always said, it isn’t important the wave count be exactly correct as much as it leads you in the correct direction for the trade. And in this case, I believe this count is leading to the correct direction.

Patterns

There still is a large POTENTIAL Bat (yellow) that remains unfilled. Prices cam really close to it but never filled it. But we’ll need to put that aside for now. I don’t believe it is getting filled anytime soon. But it may still come into play down the road. There is a very relevant smaller POTENTIAL Bat (green) that is playing a part in defining where prices may go now. It would fill just around the area of the MAJOR up trending TL . If and when prices get to that point, it will be decision time as to what it will do: break or bounce.

The other prominent pattern here is the aforementioned contracting ED with a truncated 5th. The wave 5 of (5) has completed this ED. Other patterns in play here are of course the Double Top and also a inclined H&S pattern.

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