Aussie: With RBA Minutes, the rebound of Aussie is over.
The main event regarding to Aussie this week is RBA Minutes on Monday.
Here is my view: RBA needs to do something to fight back threads come from China. They should follow BOJ and cut rate 25bp.
If they refuse to cut rate, definitely they must be more dovish and signal one more rate cut.
Hence, the bias to trade Aussie this week is SELL vs selected currencies.
I choose AUDJPY, AUDUSD, and AUDNZD.
With AUDUSD, the rebound is over, and I begin to price Aussie from current level.
Why ?
Look at on the chart, A/U rejected key resistance level at 0.7140 : SMA100 + SMA50
This is a significant resistance, above this level is Kumo cloud at 0.7200
A/U needs strong catalyst to break this level., I don't think A/U could move above 0.7200
Downside risk is maintained.
I bet on AUDUSD will fall to 0.6910 this week.
Here is my view: RBA needs to do something to fight back threads come from China. They should follow BOJ and cut rate 25bp.
If they refuse to cut rate, definitely they must be more dovish and signal one more rate cut.
Hence, the bias to trade Aussie this week is SELL vs selected currencies.
I choose AUDJPY, AUDUSD, and AUDNZD.
With AUDUSD, the rebound is over, and I begin to price Aussie from current level.
Why ?
Look at on the chart, A/U rejected key resistance level at 0.7140 : SMA100 + SMA50
This is a significant resistance, above this level is Kumo cloud at 0.7200
A/U needs strong catalyst to break this level., I don't think A/U could move above 0.7200
Downside risk is maintained.
I bet on AUDUSD will fall to 0.6910 this week.