Sforex
Short

Aussie: With RBA Minutes, the rebound of Aussie is over.

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar
233 1 2
The main event regarding to Aussie this week is RBA Minutes on Monday.

Here is my view: RBA needs to do something to fight back threads come from China. They should follow BOJ and cut rate 25bp.

If they refuse to cut rate, definitely they must be more dovish and signal one more rate cut.

Hence, the bias to trade Aussie this week is SELL vs selected currencies.

I choose AUDJPY             , AUDUSD             , and AUDNZD             .

With AUDUSD             , the rebound is over, and I begin to price Aussie from current level.

Why ?

Look at on the chart, A/U rejected key resistance level at 0.7140 : SMA100 + SMA50

This is a significant resistance, above this level is Kumo cloud at 0.7200

A/U needs strong catalyst to break this level., I don't think A/U could move above 0.7200

Downside risk is maintained.

I bet on AUDUSD             will fall to 0.6910 this week.
I don't disagree with anything you are saying except that to date the RBA have always been talking it up (even though they shouldn't be). Nothing fundamental has changed so I can't see them changing that approach with this meeting.
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