You should know what stage of a market cycle your pair trading is in, so you can trade with moneymakers (Big Banks & Hedge Funds).
4 Stages Of Market Cycle are:
1) Accumulation (Support)
2) Markup ( Trading)
3) Distribution (Resistance)
4) Markdown (Liquidation/ Trading)
*Then cycle starts again
If you are trading Forex, you should know from Monthly timeframes down to your trading timeframes, what part of MAJOR cycles price action is in. From the noted monthly chart, for the next TWO YEARS, AUDUSD will be in a Markup ( Trading) on monthly charts. Right now AUDUSD has been in a support or Accumulation stage for the last FIVE years and at a YEARLY S1 too. Would be looking for only bottoming patterns to take longs with at this time
Wishing you all best in life and trading.
Also, I believe you make an error in assuming the banks and hedge funds know any more than you or I. They do NOT determine such large time frame trends. They are based on long term economic fundamentals.