4xForecaster

Trade Opp: $AUD Short Potential | $USD #RBA #FED #Forex

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar
907 28 8
Trade Opp:

Entered Short @ 0.92724
SL @ 0.92984
TP @ 0.88221

Prop pattern = JANUS
Background Pattern = EUCLID

Structure/Obstacles - Defined by rev-eng. (highly speculative)
- 0.91222
- 0.90162
- 0.89090
(Correlate well with predictive analysis and forecasting system)

NOTE: Further trade management is left at the discretion of the mature, experienced trader who will apply first due diligence, sound money management and best on his/her assumed risk tolerance. So, plan your trade, then trade your plan. Always.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis and Forecasting


If interested to receive my TradingView forecast instantly through Twitter:
Simply follow me: @4xForecaster.
Here is a recent forecast:
X (US Steel) - New Target @ 30.422 | #Steel #NYSE


-------------------------------------
Disclaimer:
- Remember to remain dubious about every and any thing I say. All comments are subjective perceptions based on unshared, proprietary and common knowledge of fundamental analysis , classic technical analysis , basic and advanced pattern trading, as well as personal research in occult market geometries, predictive analysis and quant-based forecasting, some or none of which is being shared in my trading profiles, so do your due diligence and review the disclaimer below.
- Forecasts, analyses and directional opinions generated herein are for educational purposes only and are not trading recommendations. We trust that you will do your own due diligence first, then seek professional advice from a licensed professional, then enter the market at your own perils - David Alcindor - TradingView.com Alias: 4xForecaster
I'm interested in a AUDUSD short as well, but my entry point is 0.9323 so I'm looking for a final brief push (probably a stop run if it happens) above 0.93. stop loss 0.9341
Reply
FaultyKid CryptoBanker
is that the .50 fib
Reply
Hello @FaultyKid - Not sure what price handle you are using to set up the 50-Fib, but I have not used this for the predictive analysis and forecasting. Feel free to clarify by answering within this thread.

Cheers,

David Alcindor
Reply
4xForecaster PRO CryptoBanker
Hello @CryptoBanker - Not sure whether price can get there, but the system is currently neutral-to-bearish, and continues to veer towards the bear side. However, this is not physics, but Forex where black is white, up is down, and apples fall up from the tree, so we'll see what Friday brings.

Cheers,

David Alcindor
Reply
CryptoBanker 4xForecaster
Very well put haha! If I see multiple possibilities for an entry, I tend to pick the one furthest away from current price (ie least likely to get hit). This way I miss alot of entries (no loss though!) and increase my win rate.
Reply
Hi David, so 'nzd long', 'aud short' and 'aud/nzd long'? both can't be possible you know, any contrarian signal in audnzd?. thanks again.
Reply
4xForecaster PRO muratsoydan
Hello @nuratsoydan:

1 - $AUD is under pressure right now, seeing a potential top at the current value

2 - $NZD is well bid thanks to central bank reference to rate increase consideration

3 - $AUDNZD should be net bearish, as either sides are moved by inverse intrinsic pressures that could accelerate the chart downwards.

4 - AUD and NZD can still both move within the same direction, IF and only if the opposite currency moves under its own fundamental motivation. For instance, AUDUSD and NZDUSD could both decline in the same direction if the US central bank decided to give up its normalization program at a higher pace than what is currently scheduled, effectively pushing both DOWN in the same direction. Conversely, a similar scenario to the upside could occur relative to the BOJ decision to easy its monetary further than what Abe has already implementing, thus pushing AUDJPY and NZDJPY UP in one and the same direction.

A net move in AUDNZD would be interesting to see if both US and Japanese central banks decided to accelerate their own programs.

However, I believe that the USD, being the least poor of all bad currencies (all currencies are considered "bad" right now due to a global devaluation, or "race to the bottom") is likely to strengthen.

As indicated before, the Yuan is falling, costing more to exporting economies in the surrounding skirts of the Chinese influences as a major importer of raw material from developing countries. When these countries perceive a relative increase in their own currencies (as the Yuan declines, the relative value of other exporting economies make their good appear more expensive), they too are likely to join the race to the bottom.

The ONLY lever left at their disposal will be the USD Dollar. So, as they press their currencies down and compete in the exporting commerce, so will the USD rise.

A rise in USD will likely pressure EUR down, as well as commodities down, such as Gold. Since AUD, NZD, CHF and CAD have currencies that are correlated to Gold valuation, then here too, expect both AUD and NZD to be pressured DOWN at the one and same time.

This is a more elaborate response to your question, but I thought I should develop its implication, because the current situation will likely see a downward pressure on many currencies opposite to the USD.

Hope this is not too boring, but I am not sure what is the average Forex interest of most readers, so putting things into context would have helped me when I started, and that is what I like to do outside of the mere charting, predictive analyses and forecasting activity.

Cheers!

David Alcindor, MOD
Reply
muratsoydan 4xForecaster
Thanks David great answer as always. I agree to some extend but if fundamentals are issue many things can be said against your thoughts.
Nzd/Usd has already priced its interest rate hike, maybe the commitment to the tightening cycle adds more to the price but and it is near to the multi year highs so any statement or decision change from RBNZ will change the picture so quickly (by the way I don't see it much possible), in short it will inevitably fall at some day but it seems not today and as you said it is more related with the FED and US not RBNZ.
If AUD is making a top now, aud/nzd is will fall quickly that's true. But rba is too dovish until now but it seems Stevens abandoned the rate cut rhetoric, so any hawkish move or not referring to any rate cut will accelarate the rise of aud and it seems it has more space in above than nzd in the mid term, and if we think aud/nzd is at its multi year lows and histroical resistance, I don't know how longer will it keep falling. And It is possible that we are at the beginning of an up trend. But as you said, if gold prices are precessor of aud (I do not agree much, because it seems gold started to move in a range, so it may start to lose its forecast ability despite positive relationship between) aud will fall. So it seems you abandoned your audnzd long call and I will watch the price action I'll do it maybe. Thanks for sharing your thoughts, of course this is not boring :) Keep up the good work.
Reply
"This means that on the AUDNZD cross, a bearish downturn is expected to have occurred already, as price rolled following a 5-0 Pattern completion at 1.06982. " Sorry, you already mentioned it in nzdusd chart.
Reply
Can't say about the rebound, but I do fully agree with your targets. Short on this pair as well. I think the last upmove was solely an exhaust.
Reply
KevinT KevinT
Lookig at th last exhaust from 22-23 october, the way down can be long.
Reply
Yes. Delays from retracement and pace from scale of timeframe will make this an exciting experience rivaling that of watching a glacier moving - David
Reply
KevinT 4xForecaster
Still need to be carefull for the weerkly positive divergence that set in a couple of weeks ago. I'll make my analysis tomorrow for AUDUSD as well. Also for EURUSD, which may support your short opinion. But for today......PARTY!!!!!!!!!! :))
Reply
I personally don't agree. The trend is strongly up. I agree there could be a pull back because is reaching short overbought territory. Again trend is up here. Why do you think AUD is under pressure?
Reply
Hello @LEONES -

First, thank you for offering your participation and opinion in this AUDUSD thread.

Second: Indeed, the trend is very strong and ,per se, has shown no intention to let up. However, the bearish scenario I offer above - which is explained in the thread of discussions, as far as reasoning - is based on a proprietary pattern that has called for a top.

While a rresersal-top was signaled by my pattern (even though no patterns are 100% reliable), the fundamental reasoning simply offers a reasoning if indeed price had reached the vicinity of a top-reversal. So, the fundamental is there to explain a bearish scenario.

As in many things I attempt to do, I derive please in being wrong, so that I may add a little something every time. However, the proprietary patterns have been good to me, although not as good as the predictive analysis and forecasting system I use in defining trend, top/bottom reversals and targets.

However, layered all together, they do reinforce the directional sentiment that form the basis of my signals. But as they say: "Nobody is bigger than the market": My analyses do not attempt to second-guess the market, but are attempts at keeping the pulse and staying with the market.

I fold when I am wrong, minus with the material loss in hand, but the humbling gain of learning yet a little more from it.

Cheers,

David Alcindor
Reply
LEONES PRO 4xForecaster
ok interesting let's see ho it goes. is your reversal system a short term or long term one?
Reply
It looks at M15, H4 and daily timeframes.

The composite directional bias generated by the system requires H4 reversal for early signal, in which case, the target comes out as "moderate probability" (yellow/orange colored target).

If all timeframes agree in terms of direction, then the target comes out as high-probability (green colored target).

If the target is based on daily and lines up with a prop pattern, then I might include it and keep it greyed in, as in the following EURUSD case:
Update: Bullish Forecast Reinforced | $EUR $USD $UDX #Forex
.

David
Reply
20 MAR 2014 - Chart Update:

Friends,

As of this Sunday, market opened with a short rallying into 0.9257 structural resistance and finally carved a new lower low. This move affirms the predictive analysis and forecast defined above last Thursday, March 27th.

The trade profile generated at that time remain unchanged:

Entered Short @ 0.92724
SL @ 0.92984
TP @ 0.88221

For the time being, I will remain on watch and interject whenever any technically relevant event occurs.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
TradingView.com Moderator
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting


--------------------------------
Get my free signals on Twitter:
- Follow my alias: @4xForecaster
-------------------------------
Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
* * * TYPO: Title should read: 30 MAR 2014, and not 20 MAR 2014 * * *
Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
FUNDAMENTAL NOTE:

- In the AFR interview, Stevens had said: "I don't think the extent of our knowledge about what's correct is that good, but I did think ($0.95) was rather too high. I thought ($0.85) would be closer to the mark than ($0.95) at the time we started to make some comments some months ago, but, really, I don't think we can be that precise."

Comment: This is a very important piece of the analysis as well, considering that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is looking at a decrease in the cash rate as an eventual central bank action ... That was bank in the first week of MARCH.

Given the technical analysis (predictive and forecasting), the two are coming together quite nicely, especially since my system calls for 0.88221 as a bearish target, and Stevens comments alluded to an even lower level:
- " ... thought ($0.85) would be closer to the mark ..." Stevens

More to come if and when relevant.

David Alcindor
Reply
muratsoydan 4xForecaster
Hi David, I think aud easing is done, and if it will hold its rates same it will help aussie to skyrocket.
Reply
Early days but this seems to have been an excellent play David - many thanks!
Reply
Thank you Matt - I hope you were able to stay in the play following the AUD fundamental-driven reaction. I added an update showing a re-entry at similar level as original:

snapshot


Cheers,

David
Reply
mattlowden PRO 4xForecaster
Good idea, I know we discussed giving the trade a little more room for volatility in chat. The Australian Dollar is looking strong and trading in a tight range against the US Dollar today; perhaps RBA's Gov. Stevens comments later on will open the pair up a little.
Reply
01 APR 2014 - Chart Update:

I spend some time last night firing off targets, reversals and forecasting on pairs. In the process, I informed the traders that I would change the SL to 93.070, as follows in the chart:

snapshot


So, no change in the overall trade, except this SL.

In my personal trade, in anticipation of the rallying to the level above, I was able to get out, let it vent and reenter @ 0.92729 (compared to 0.92724 in original trade).

Cheers,

David Alcindor
Reply
01 APR 2014 - Chart updated with re-entry order:

snapshot


Cheers,

David Alcindor


------------------------------------

Get my signals, analyses and forecasts thru Twitter:
- alias: @4xForecaster

------------------------------------
Reply
Was short the AUD/USD at your entry level but my stop-loss order was triggered when the price spiked-up during the AUD interest rate news on the 31st.
Reply
Hopefully you took the chance to reset your trade. Analysis remains intact - David
Reply
Ideas Scripts Chart
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
France
Italia
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Forex Signal Finder Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing Sign Out