Kumowizard
Short

AUSUSD - Good risk/reward for going short with 0,9200 tgt

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar
302 4 2
Two days ago I've called your attention for possible sell signals in AUDUSD             . Since then price has not changed much, in fact it started consolidate in the Kumo Cloud on 4 Hrs time frame. However within 2 days charts produced more signals that makes me more confident with going short here, with a nice risk/reward. Let's put it together:

Daily - Bearish engulfing candle two days ago. Slow Stoch bearish , MACD gave sell signal too. DI+ crossed below ADX line which often means the trend momentum exhausts, and the instrument minimum takes breath and pulls back.
The Price moved a bit far away from the Cloud and the Kijun Sen, which calls for correction too. But keep in mind that the Ichimoku components on daily chart are still absolutely bullish , so the pull back tgt             can be ard the trendline and/or Kijun Sen, possibly around 0,9200.

4 Hrs - Price is in the Kumo Cloud, which means instrument is not trending now on this time frame. The very low ADX and zig-zag DMI             tells us the same. Price have retested teh Kijun Sen and top of the cloud, where refused to go higher, and formed 3 lower highs, this means chance for a possible breakdown is increasing. Tenkan is below Kijun, also Chikou Span is below Price candles, these are medium bearish signals. The Key level here is 0,9330, where a break below 100 WMA and the Kumo Cloud will accelerate bearish momentum .

Strategy: Build short position within 0,9360 - 0,9390 range. Double up teh size on the break below 0,9330.
Initial Stop at 0,9405 (which after double position is on will have to be lowered to 0,9385). Target 0,9200. Expected Risk/Reward: 3,7.
I am in the trade with double size, as last week Stop Sell order was executed when price hit 0,9330. Move stops to 0,9385 now! Let's hope we don't get f...d by stop hunting :-), and let's hope for a less impressive CPI print. (I think mkt expectation is relatively high).
Anyway, keep in mind, this trade is still a counter trend idea.
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We got close to the stop yesterday, but finally 4 Hrs Kumo held very well! CPI numbers were lower than estimated, means CPI is within RBA's target range. This gave the final push for AUDUSD to trade lower, breaking below 0,9300 support. Setup is all ok for now to keep the short positions and watch for reaching the primer target at 0,9200.
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Place TP orders for half of the short position, as we are getting closer to our primer target. Also move your initial stops lower a bit to ard 0,9350, or to a level which is at break even for the first trade unit. Basically from now we have ard zero possible risk. Of course if your trading style or risk and money management is different, you can move your trailing stop even lower to already lock in some profit.
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Price has reached Kijun Sen on daily chart + daily uptrend is coming higher. Bearish momentum fades a bit, maybe it won't reach the initial 0,9200 target and 0,9250-75 level will stop the move. Obviously the main trend is still up, so maybe it is wise to take partial profit here, or move stops lower, to lock most of the profit.
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